Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 1 No.1 Kokatahi
Best Value: Race 3 No.3 Concordia Wind
Next Best: Race 3 No.7 In And Out
Track
+5m Entire – Tricky rail position. With the wet track, I expect lanes 1–2 in the straight to be inferior. Ideally settles forward of midfield and off the rails in transit, using lanes 2+ in the straight.
Race 1
Intriguing race to kick off proceedings here on the Kensington track.
(1) Kokatahi has trialled up exceptionally well against smart opposition, smart use of the claim but does give away key race fitness. To offset that, he gets a lovely run from the draw.
The race fitness of (8) Lipstick should come to the fore. Loved the way she attacked the line fresh and maps to get a lovely run in transit.
(3) Royal Silver comes off a smart debut effort, underrated trainer and should land on speed from gate 2.
Outside of that, (7) Feminino is one to watch, market-wise, on debut.
Selections:
(1) Kokatahi
(8) Lipstick
(3) Royal Silver
(7) Feminino
Suggested Bet: Kokatahi WIN
Race 2
The Hawkes-trained (8) Overshadow maps ideally from barrier 4, solid debut effort behind the smart Mareth. Since then she has been let up 40 days with a smart tick-over trial under her belt and now rises to 1400m, which suits.
I liked the late sectional speed of (3) Castagnola on debut, she’ll take sharp improvement out of that contest and is much better suited second-up, rising in trip from the smart draw.
(1) Velaris goes in the mix but his price is anchored by the booking of James and likely needs the run.
(10) Lorrie Belle is next best.
Selections:
(8) Overshadow
(3) Castagnola
(1) Velaris
(10) Lorrie Belle
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Good race this. Happy to approach it with a two-pronged Waller attack.
I couldn’t have been more impressed with the event trials of (3) Concordia Wind, she’s a smart mare on her day and does love the sting out. The obvious worry is gate 10.
The stablemate (7) In And Out missed the kick badly first-up before rattling home impressively. Draws better here and gains McDonald.
I respect (8) Spaceballs here off an improving second trial but suggest the mare is a better dry deck horse.
The consistent (2) Clear Proof rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
(3) Concordia Wind
(7) In And Out
(8) Spaceballs
(2) Clear Proof
Suggested Bet: Concordia Wind + In And Out WIN
Race 4
OK speed expected up front in the small field.
I’ll side the way of (2) Fiddlers Green here, smart fresh galloper who was able to win impressively fresh last time in. Gains James in the saddle and should get every chance from the draw.
(4) Copacabana was an all-the-way winner last time out with a very smart ride, look for similar tactics to be adopted here. The query is the wet deck.
(1) Canadian Ruler maps well from barrier 5 coming off a confidence-building fresh win and is in the mix.
(5) Elle Hudson rounds out the numbers needing further.
Selections:
(2) Fiddlers Green
(4) Copacabana
(1) Canadian Ruler
(5) Elle Hudson
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
This race has dropped away significantly and looks to be (3) Big Red Tequila’s race to lose. Smart fresh win before putting up a career-best effort last start, the only knock here is the wet track.
(1) Art’s Alive looks to be the main danger, loved the recent trial behind the first-up winner Bev’s Nine, maps well and is aided by a smart use of the claim.
(2) Inferencia will need a touch of luck to offset the gate but is another suited first-up with a 3kg claim.
The Chris Waller-trained (7) Vanessi rounds out the numbers second-up.
Selections:
(3) Big Red Tequila
(1) Art’s Alive
(2) Inferencia
(7) Vanessi
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
Wide open affair here.
I’ll lean the way of (6) Ellipsis from a good draw, smart last start SP and should be able to slot in just off the speed here.
I was hoping to see the blinkers go on (8) Clancy here second-up but they don’t, strong trials into a solid fresh run, the big query is the wide draw.
(5) Dashing Rupert looks better suited dropping back in grade, he’ll love the speed on up front and laps up wet decks.
Outside of that, (4) Fangela and (2) Huon round out the numbers as place chances.
Selections:
(6) Ellipsis
(8) Clancy
(5) Dashing Rupert
(4) Fangela
(2) Huon
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
No speed to report up front over the 1800m to round out the meeting.
With the added race fitness under her belt and the rise to 1800m, (10) Outta Line looks to get a very soft lead and should be the horse to gun down.
(11) Willie Oppa looks the danger, ready to tackle 1800m and does have some strong figures on rain-affected tracks.
The stablemate (5) Existential Bob has been a model of consistency this time in, 2/2 on heavy decks and is the horse to watch market-wise.
(3) Mirra Impact is next best.
Selections:
(10) Outta Line
(11) Willie Oppa
(5) Existential Bob
(3) Mirra Impact
Suggested Bet: No Bet
