Best bet: Race 5 No.2 Figlio D’Argento
Turf talk:
- Racing is on the outer Hillside circuit at Sandown.
- The Hillside track has a lovely, 490m home straight that generally gives horses a chance to make gourd, provided they have the talent.
- Light-ish southerly winds forecast which shouldn’t impact racing.
Race 1:
(6) Kaye Jay raced without cover at Cranbourne on debut after showing early pace from a wide barrier. He still managed to run the fifth fastest final 200 metres of the meeting. A mile at start two is no concern, and I’d expect him to settle prominently to the speed.
(13) Kirkhoepasse raced ungenerously on debut but reeled off a finish that of a nice horse. She’s not clued in to racing yet, but she’s a filly with ability.
(7) Mike’s Hope was well fancied on debut but only managed third. The race has produced good form since, and there’s no reason this horse can’t acquit himself well at start two. Damian Lane aids his chances.
(1) Nightowl, placed four times in New Zealand, makes his Australian debut for Andrew Noblet after a nice trial.
Selections:
(6) Kaye Jay
(13) Kirkhoepasse
(7) Mike’s Hope
(1) Nightowl
Race 2:
(4) Volatile may not have seen out a fiercely run six furlongs last start. That said, he was very good, finishing third behind Gin A Tonic and Steel Trap at Caulfield two starts back. Returning to five will be no issue, and he clearly has the best form in this race.
(1) Tookay Pete will have his fourth race in twenty-two days. He’s in great form, he’s won two of his last three and was second in the other. He gets every chance to win again.
(3) Magic Drum has won his last two races, but is well exposed in lower grades than this. However, this is not a strong race.
(7) Elena Montero has shown glimpses of talent throughout her career, but isn’t in great form at the moment.
Selections:
(4) Volatile
(1) Tookay Pete
(3) Magic Drum
(7) Elena Montero
Race 3:
(3) Legacy Bay was given too much to do at Flemington last start, but was well fancied. She can settle further forward from barrier five, and blinkers are to be applied for the first time. The early move for her is understandable.
(5) Butternut Princess, the second of Moody’s chances, similarly to Legacy Bay, was given too much to do despite being well fancied. She can run to a strong level of form, and is a better horse than her stablemate, but she is dictated to by her opponents due to her lack of early pace over this distance. In races at seven furlongs or less, she has settled in front of eight of her 53 opponents. From barrier seven, she’ll likely be restrained to the rear in another slow race, giving the advantage to Legacy Bay.
(1) Matawai continues to race at a consistent level. Her place in the market is justified.
(7) Russian Choice is lightly raced and quickly improving. I’m inclined to believe she was aided by a slow pace and wind assistance at Flemington last start, so the bare form may give her a little too much credit.
Selections:
(3) Legacy Bay
(5) Butternut Princess
(1) Matawai
(7) Russian Choice
Race 4:
(3) Hanafubuki is a strong staying mare and has previously raced well over this distance. She’s fit enough now and is aided by the booking of Craig Williams.
(1) Eagle Angel can make the pace and give a sight. He may be looking for this distance now.
(4) Urban Outlook was given no chance last start but finished well nonetheless. He hasn’t raced at this distance before, but he looks like he will get the trip.
(8) Highland Glory is consistent at this distance range in this grade. He can run well again.
Selections:
(3) Hanafubuki
(1) Eagle Angel
(4) Urban Outlook
(8) Highland Glory
Race 5:
(2) Figlio D’Argento made the pace at Flemington, just shy of fourteen lengths faster than what is typical over nine furlongs at Flemington up until the 600 metres. He was gallant in defeat, finishing fourth. There isn’t an abundance of speed in this, and he has the opportunity to dictate terms.
(1) Lim’s Smythe won for the first time on Australian soil last start, but the race rated poorly.
(5) Colour Our World has found his level this preparation, and would hope that Figlio D’Argento is off his form.
(7) En Flique ran a peak rating last start, but I’d bet on her regressing to her mean.
Selections:
(2) Figlio D’Argento
(1) Lim’s Smythe
(5) Colour Our World
(7) En Flique
Suggested Bet: (2) Figlio D’Argento (Best Bet)
Race 6:
(11) Off Their Perch was scintillating over the concluding furlong at Pakenham last start. He was restrained to the rear of the field and given no hope relative to the pace. He made the pace first-up, so I wonder whether they will use his early pace here.
(6) Mount Sabyinyo made the pace at Cranbourne and finished well to win by three lengths.
(2) Ornos makes his return to racing after stretching out to a mile in his last preparation. He got better as the races got longer last prep, so I’ve no intention of backing him in this first-up over 1300 metres. He has been gelded, and Damian Lane is booked to ride, which both aid his chances.
Selections:
(11) Off Their Perch
(6) Mount Sabyinyo
(2) Ornos
Race 7:
(7) Enamorada made a quick impression in two starts last preparation, comprehensively winning her maiden and then a benchmark 66. She has since been transferred to Ciaron Maher and has trialled as if she is in good order.
(10) Russian Front quickly backs up after racing without cover at Pakenham. He gets in rather well after Ryan Houston’s claim, and can surprise the favourite if she doesn’t return to the form she raced in under Gavin Bedggood.
(3) Attachments continues to race consistently for Archie Alexander, although I’d be surprised if his price inside 3/1 holds.
Selections:
(7) Enamorada
(10) Russian Front
(3) Attachments
Race 8:
(4) Sirius Statement was only narrowly beaten by Paradise City at Pakenham last start. If he can hold that level of form, the disparity in price between him and Watersports is too much.
(9) Watersports has been in good form this preparation, racing consistently well. The race he ran in last start at Flemington didn’t rate particularly well, and there was less than three lengths between the first seven.
Selections:
(4) Sirius Statement
(9) Watersports
