Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 #4 The Stars $6 – Good last start, fitter and gets a better run.
Race 3 #6 Lennox $7 (save Prince Levi) – Forgiving last start and previous form lines up well against this lot.
Race 4 – (split bets) – #1 Acappella Sun $8 + #6 Ariat $16
Race 6 #7 Ramp It Up $6 – Just have to find a spot midfield or better with cover and can beat these.
Turf Talk:
- Rail True
- Doomben, big fields, good weather, rail true. LET’S BET!
Key stats:
- Jai Williams is striking at 24% from his last 50 rides and a ROI of +126%. Could easily ride another few here.
- Currie stable have a +10% ROI off their last 50 runners and striking at 20%. They have a good team engaged at this meeting.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(3) On The Clock is in the Birchley yard and not many better 2 year old trainers here. Just fell for the trap of racing the leader and was soft late at the Sunny Coast. Blinkers on here and Doomben more suitable.
(1) Harry’s Back got back there and ran over the top of that horse late. Should improve off that and be a big chance again here.
I’d always rather be on the raced brigade.
Away from them I liked (6) Esperanza‘s trial and was scratched from the midweeks to race here. Watch the market closely for a push.
Market our best guide on them all.
Selections:
(3) On The Clock
(1) Harry’s Back
(6) Esperanza
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2:
No doubt (3) Dominant Darcy is a handy one and very well suited here but is rock bottom odds. Back to 1200m is good, should lead easily and get every possible chance. Just thought some horses behind were a touch unlucky last start and she did get run over at $1.65.
(4) The Stars was given no hope fresh and the run was excellent from the back. This time out they can sit in front of midfield, not spend a penny and be the one finishing over the top. Waller’s usually a lot better after a run back.
(9) Andi Don’t Care, (1) Mr Bubbaluski might be next best if playing exotics.
Selections:
(4) The Stars
(3) Dominant Darcy
(9) Andi Don’t Care
(1) Mr Bubbaluski
Suggested Bet: Win (4) The Stars
Race 3:
The races (3) Raf Attack was going around in Sydney are better than this. Was a bit plain late two back but was good enough late at the GC.
I like what I see in (6) Lennox for a race like this. Forgiving the last start run over 2400m on a heavy track. Didn’t like the fact they led the start before that and the previous form was strong. Good gate, sit 3rd,4th,5th and peel off on straightening to go for home.
(8) Prince Levi is an honest type and was brave in defeat last start. Was there to win but beaten by a horse in great form. This is the perfect race and he looks very hard to hold out this time around.
Selections:
(6) Lennox
(8) Prince Levi
(3) Raf Attack
Suggested Bet: Win bet (6) Lennox and just save on (8) Prince Levi.
Race 4:
Gollan’s too good. (1) Acappella Sun had been getting back and disappointing. On speed track last time out and they lead and get it done. Good win but might be flattered a bit by the track.
(4) Ten Deep joined Gollan yard and wins first-up for him. Takes a good 3kg claim here, has won 2nd up and from gate 2 can probably box seat to get every chance.
I just feel (6) Ariat is in rare form and over the odds at $16. Dominant at Gatton two back and last start her and the winner put a gap on the rest of them. Good gate, takes a claim and worth a penny on at big odds in my opinion.
(5) Pierata’s Gem comes out of better races but I’ve had a gutful.
(8) Davikar has won 2 of last 3 and worth some thought. Wide gate the concern.
Selections:
(6) Ariat
(1) Acappella Sun
(4) Ten Deep
(8) Davikar
Suggested Bet: Win bets (6) Ariat and (1) Acappella Sun
Race 5:
(8) Yoyo Yeezy is a nice one on the way up but is always loved and rock bottom price in the market. Better known at 1000m, so this will be a good guide for them with a fast run 1110m. Surely this is the perfect opportunity to take a sit and try to finish off.
I liked Moonhaven but it’s a key scratching.
(5) Neil has a great overall record (6:3:1:0), draws to get a great run and gets 3kg off for Jett. A bit to like and watch the market.
(9) Bold Bidder was good last start and draws well. Can keep improving.
(13) Zoubaby has ability but wide gate and mixes form.
Selections:
(8) Yoyo Yeezy
(5) Neil
(9) Bold Bidder
(13) Zoubaby
Suggested Bet: No bets
Race 6:
Full field and you’ll need some luck in running.
(7) Ramp It Up is the best horse in the race and they have to ride him that way. Staying at 1350m is not ideal and you can’t afford to go back. Come out positive and look to find cover in the first half of the field anywhere. If they do, he will win. If they don’t, he most likely won’t.
(9) Too Many Thoughts looks a big, beautiful horse and he has won 4 of 8. In the right stable to keep improving and the last start was impressive after being wide. Can box seat and get every chance again.
(19) Land Bank and (4) Astra Star the next best but both draw poorly and that’s a concern against these.
Selections:
(7) Ramp It Up
(9) Too Many Thoughts
Suggested Bet: Win (7) Ramp It Up and just a saver (9) Too Many Thoughts
Race 7:
The toppy (1) Fabulantes has a bit of class and the run last start was great. Best L600-400-200m of the race and from the good gate looks to get every chance here.
(9) Ready For Aimee is one I have been on all this prep but was beaten fair and square by the toppy last start. Blinkers go on and last chance for her to prove to me she isn’t just another ‘gonna’ horse who doesn’t win. Blinkers may well do the trick.
(5) The Torque Express has been good all prep. Muddling race last start didn’t suit and I’m happy to forgive that effort. Had won 2 of 3 before that and the in form Jett Newman knows the horse well.
Selections:
(1) Fabulantes
(5) The Torque Express
(9) Ready For Aimee
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,5,9
Race 8:
The trap race of the quaddie. Gates and maps important but if recent trends are any guide will get 10 scratchings and a completely different race to assess Saturday morning!
At least you know (1) Taltarni Fields will map well and is in form. Does lose a top jock for an apprentice but he knows the horse well and the gate makes it an easier steer. Still has a decent weight to lump but suited here.
I like (2) Scud as a horse but was a bit plain last start. Could improve without surprising.
(16) Break Free is in a good stable and has some upside. Liked the first-up win, has the light weight but has to have some luck from the bad gate.
Bold Julius opened $26 and looked a bet but they have taken it out.
A stack of other chances and might be a field job in the quaddie.
Selections:
(1) Taltarni Fields
(16) Break Free
(2) Scud
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 9:
(3) Hell is a ripper. Has the good on speed pattern and kicks off a good speed. This is the perfect track (3:2:1:0) and a firm/fast ground just makes him hard to run down. Gets the claim for the in form apprentice and well placed by the leading stable.
(2) Hatchet is good on his day and beat Hell last start. Meets it 1.5kg worse off but does love this track/trip where he’s had 14 starts and won or placed in 10 of them.
Limited chances, poor race.
Selections:
(3) Hell
(2) Hatchet
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 10:
Gee, this is a tough way to finish. A lot of leading hopes have wide gates and a couple apprentices too. That’s never the best mix.
(2) Quothquan is a horse I always like and always runs well. Won or placed in 16 of 28 and doesn’t mind this track too. Ready to show best 3rd run back but has gate 12 at a sticky starting point here.
I feel (9) Rock Hard Love is an underrated horse but he goes to another level on wet ground. Being a hot week and last race of the day I am concerned this might be too hard to show his very best form. Not a great race and could still win.
Don’t love the race (12) Master Copy comes out of but has won or placed in 4 of 5 second-up and draws much better than a lot of the chances. Can be the improver.
(14) Bengal Diamond has a better turn of foot than these but just finds trouble with the get back style. The booking of Thompson makes me think I can lean that way and bank on a good ride.
Selections:
(14) Bengal Diamond
(2) Quothquan
(9) Rock Hard Love
(12) Master Copy
Suggested Bets: Nope
