Summary of Best Bets:
Race 3 #1 Wiliamtheconqueror – Gelded and loved the recent trial.
Race 7 #13 The Wheelbarrow- Gate is a concern but up to this trip suits and has good upside.
Turf Talk:
- Rail +9.5m
- Not a huge fan of the rail being so far out. It can be leaderish and then trainers/jocks change tactics mid meeting. Maps are completely out the window if or when that happens.
- Some punters feel it’s a good set up backing leaders with rail out but I can’t stand betting after a couple of races when they overdo it up front and then the swoopers win.
Stats that matter:
- M.Dunn stable striking at 34% from their last 50 runners and ROI of +58%
- Been waiting for Ben Thompson to find his best form and here he comes. 10 winners from his last 37 rides and has a fair book here today.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Plenty of these have decent form but like to find one better. (1) Abraham has been runner up in 4 straight races and (6) Paper Doll 6 times in a row.
I’ve been on (1) Abraham every career run and still think he’s got wins in store. Don’t like the outside barrier for him but the 1600m should be OK. Not sure I’ve got the guts to go again.
(6) Paper Doll has to win one soon. My little issue with her is she is usually well held (1L or so). Like Thompson on top and has bumped into a decent one the last couple of runs.
(5) French Riviera can win off the last effort. Just mixes form and hard to trust.
(2) He Is The Kiss is a complete non-winner but a must in exotics.
Selections:
(1) Abraham
(6) Paper Doll
(5) French Riviera
(2) He Is The Kiss
Suggested Bet: Win bet (1) Abraham
Race 2:
Looks a good race for (1) Artistic Endeavour, but it always does. Been in the market plenty of times and still a 12 start maiden. Good gate, maps well and gets 3kg off.
Rail out probably doesn’t suit (3) Rusty Tycoon but I didn’t mind the fresh run. Fitter for that and they may try to sit a bit closer if possible here (would be good tactics).
(7) Katie Aine draws OK, better for the three runs and gets a claim. Looks a suitable trip and one of the main chances in an even race.
(6) Battuta is an I Am Invincible for Waller and hasn’t placed in 7 runs. Hard to have but the last start was OK.
Selections:
(1) Artistic Endeavour
(7) Katie Aine
(6) Battuta
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 3:
Thought (1) Wiliamtheconqueror was good enough in first prep and can be a better horse this time in. Has been gelded in the break and absolutely loved the trial leading into this. Looks well placed from the inside gate.
(7) Meadowbrook is no star but has ability and placed in three of four in her first prep. Should get every chance from the nice draw and good jock on top.
Bad gate for (11) Mediterra but that southern Maiden form should pan out well here. She is a Snitzel filly with Thompson on top and just needs some luck from the gate to not get caught wide here.
Selections:
(1) Wiliamtheconqueror
(11) Mediterra
(7) Meadowbrook
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Wiliamtheconqueror
Race 4:
One of the more even races of the day.
(2) Modesty is no star but has a lot going for it here. Was flat footed fresh but picked up late and very good through the line. Fitter now, this trip suits and some gear changes can work. Seems to have found the right race.
(5) Master Copy was consistent last prep and always around the money. The fresh run was a pass mark and will be a better horse here 2nd up. Jock/stable strike rate of 28% their last 100 runners.
(8) Trapedo and (9) Aratiri have been strong through the line lately and could win without surprising.
Selections:
(2) Modesty
(5) Master Copy
(8) Trapedo
(9) Aratiri
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Modesty
Race 5:
(3) Fireforce is frustrating but screaming to win a race. Just held up a few strides last start and then savaged the line late to lose in a photo. One win from 15 is a concern but maps well and ready to show best 3rd up.
(6) Castello Grande is a good one in the making and heaps of upside. May just need this and a bit further to show best but is going to be better than a CL1 horse.
I’ve been waiting for (8) Brutal Lass to run again. Hasn’t had much luck and feel if she gets clear air to the outside one day she might let down well. Rail out is the main query.
Selections:
(3) Fireforce
(8) Brutal Lass
(6) Castello Grande
Suggested Bet: Win (3) Fireforce, smaller (8) Brutal Lass
Race 6:
Pretty ordinary bunch of animals here.
(3) Lenape Vibe is handy and liked her last start. Meets Lovey Dovey 2.5kg better at the weights here (it’s now scratched Lovey Dovey) and that could be enough to turn the tables. Wide gate is the concern for sure.
(6) Bitoftheblarney is another Waller and his best form would win this. Just plain last start but could be an improver 3rd up.
(9) Demarcay is ex-Waller but has been OK for new stable and hasn’t been far off the fave lately.
Selections:
(3) Lenape Vibe
(6) Bitoftheblarney
(9) Demarcay
Suggested Bet: No bets.
Race 7:
A 1600m CL4 and a 1600m BM65 on the same card.
(13) The Wheelbarrow is lightly raced and might have the most upside. OK late fresh but the last start was excellent. Showed a turn of foot and out to this trip is ideal. From a gate he’d have been about best of the day but the wide gate worries me.
(4) Fairway Choice caught the eye late at the Gold Coast and like the apprentice on top. Best L200m of the race there and just needs some luck as a get back horse on this track with rail out.
Selections:
(13) The Wheelbarrow
(4) Fairway Choice
Suggested Bet: Win (13) The Wheelbarrow
Race 8:
Tough way to finish.
(2) Mister Bianco is consistent but the 61.5kg worries me. Always maps well, always runs quite well but I can’t help but think he’s found his level after winning six races. Ability has him in it but doubt he runs a career best.
(3) Ser Joh has won here a couple of times and has carried weight well before. They will have to make use of the gate to sit a bit closer. Likes a firm track and can run well.
(4) Tribeca Star can win on best form but hasn’t been great this prep. Has been good late splits but too far back in races. Draws well but not sure he has the speed to hold a spot in the run.
(6) Gorbachev has a great overall record (10:4:1:2) but would like the cut out of the ground. Can forgive the Magic Millions flop but want to see some market support.
(11) Sultry Siren can go in exotics and ready to show best 3rd up on a track she loves.
Selections:
(3) Ser Joh
(11) Sultry Siren
(2) Mister Bianco
(6) Gorbachev
(4) Tribeca Star
Suggested Bets: No bet
