Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Oakleigh Plate using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race.
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In The Lab | Blue Diamond Stakes | Group 1 2yo 1200m
The track – unique features of Caulfield 1200m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True. Cloud clearing. Good 4
- On pacers have an advantage at Caulfield with a win strike rate of 10.8%
- Backmarkers are losing at 17% POT
- Lane 2 is performing best with a 3% POT. Coming wider than lane 4 is very difficult
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a strong tempo with a number of on-speed runners engaged:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Jamie Melham rides Point Barrow for the first time under race conditions. She rode her in a jump out on 28/1 where Point Barrow hit the line strongly
- Craig Williams rides Tropicus for the first time
- Brad Widdup and Damian Lane combine for a 20% S/R with a POT of 168%
- Matthew Smith and Ethan Brown have combined once recently for an $11 winner
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Oakleigh Plate. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 22/2/25 | Jimmysstar 5G | 54.5kg | 1.25L | 109.4 |
| 24/2/24 | Queman 5G | 52.0kg | 0.1L | 105.3 |
| 25/2/23 | Uncommon James 4G | 53.5kg | 0.8L | 107.1 |
| 26/2/22 | Marabi 5M | 54.0kg | 0.5L | 108.8 |
| 20/2/21 | Portland Sky 3C | Celebrity Queen (Dead Heat) | 50.0kg | 53.5kg | 0L | 103.4 | 106.2 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Oakleigh Plate:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.
| Weight | Rating |
| 59.0kg | 108.7 |
| 58.5kg | 108.7 |
| 58.0kg | 108.0 |
| 57.0kg | 107.4 |
| 56.5kg | 107.0 |
| 56.0kg | 106.5 |
| 54.0kg | 104.8 |
| 52.5kg | 103.6 |
| 52.0kg | 103.2 |
| 50.0kg | 101.8 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
The verdict and betting strategy:
Field of fourteen runners in the 2026 Oakleigh Plate. They will run along at a decent clip with Tropicus the likely leader and Way To The Stars keeping him honest. Point Barrow is going from strength to strength as a 3yo and she won’t know herself with 50kg! Her latest barrier trial suggests that she’s primed for a big run. The Freedman’s have a strong hand here and Tropicus has very strong form at the track and distance 3: 2-1-0. The race opens up outside of the Freedman pair.
Suggested Bet:
Point Barrow (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
