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Matt Welsh’s Pakenham Tips: Finding value in the early races

Matt Welsh breaks down the early races at Pakenham with detailed form insights, highlighting value chances including French Intrigue on debut and On The Loose stepping up second-up.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
March 5, 2026
in Tips, VIC Tips
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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Turf Talk:

  • Pakenham is one of the best laid out tracks in the country with lovely runs from most starts before they start turning and a long, wide 480m home straight.
  • The 1000m, 1100m and 1200m races start from a chute off the top of the home straight, so a northerly wind really assists leaders in these races. Barriers are of little consequence as they only have a slight bend to navigate.

 

Race 2

(9) On The Loose made a promising debut over this track and trip when well supported late in betting. Went straight to 1400m and only wilted late after working quite hard early. With that run under the belt and staying at the same trip, looks well placed to break through.

(13) Zoudeadly showed a sharp turn of foot at Werribee when stepping to 1400m last start. The wide-open expanses of Pakenham should suit his racing style and he looks one that will be charging at them late.

(11) Irreverent was narrowly beaten over this track and trip last start and even unsuccessfully protested against the winner. He should be at peak fitness now and from a forward position can give a strong sight again.

(3) Zamparini Spirit normally rolls along at a strong tempo but is yet to win from 13 starts. They rode him quietly in a recent jump-out which suggests a possible change of tactics. If Jamie Mott can get him to settle, he could run an improved race.

Selections:
9 On The Loose
13 Zoudeadly
11 Irreverent
3 Zamparini Spirit

Suggested Bet: Backing On The Loose and Zoudeadly

 

Race 3

(4) French Intrigue looks likely to land on speed from gate five and could take plenty of catching on debut. Her recent Balnarring jump-out was very encouraging and her two runs last November suggested she has ability. Maps ideally and looks over the odds at around $19.

(11) Sweet Vixen is the one to beat. She performed well in a fast 1000m Maiden at Sale on debut and the third horse has since franked the form. Stepping to 1100m should suit and she has the advantage of making her own luck on speed.

(5) Gattino Veloce resumes for her second preparation after being beaten in fast time on debut. Her recent Cranbourne jump-out suggested improvement and while the inside draw may require a touch of luck, she has the talent to be competitive.

Selections:
4 French Intrigue
11 Sweet Vixen
5 Gattino Veloce

Suggested Bet: Level stake French Intrigue and Sweet Vixen (Sweet Vixen the saver)

Tags: Australian racingbetting tipsform guideHorse Racing TipsMatt WelshPakenhamPakenham Tipsracing previewVictorian Racing
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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