Betsy’s Best: Warrnambool

The Plan of Attack:

Turf Talk

• Warrnambool has been a mixed bag in recent meetings.

• The rail shifts back to the True after being out 8m last time.

• Expect the inside to hold up early in the day. Given the Heavy 8, it may chop out a bit as the meeting unfolds.

• Default is to bonus on-speed runners, with adjustments as the pattern unfolds.

The Stats That Matter

• Maddie Raymond & Patrick Bell are striking at 16.7% since teaming up, with a huge +105.4% PoT.

• Jordyn Weatherley thrives at Warrnambool: 22.8% strike rate, +77.8% PoT. A positive, front-running rider.

• Liam Riordan brings hot form after a four-timer at Mildura on Saturday.

The Betting Races:

Race 4 No.1 Rivkin, something smaller (5) Stargust

There looks good speed. (1) Rivkin, (4) A Good Yarn, and (14) Exicitng Times the most likely to fight for supremacy.

Rivkin comes into this off a 59-day break and fresh is generally best with him. He’s been alloted 66kg, but gets in with 62kg after the claim – which is a spoil for a 68-rater in a BM56. He also gets his preferred soft going. The challenge being he will need a good steer from 4kg apprentice Hayley Spitse, but he is a horse that has been good to apprentice riders in the past. The challenge for Hayley will be to rate the horse rather than be dictated to by the abundance of speed around – if that can be achieved, then he should be winning a race like this.

Stargust is going better than the form guide would suggest. He was good here two back and then didn’t have the best of luck in a strong race at Geelong last start. The little knock is dropping back to 1000m, but the strong tempo could bring a few up front undone.

Betting Strategy – For every $5 on (1) Rivkin at $3 having $1 on (5) Stargust at $11.

Race 6 – No.4 Ti Tree Lad

John Allen grabbed the bull by the horns last start and put (4) Ti Tree Lad into the race and by jingo I hope he does again here from a low draw. This bloke has a good deal of talent on his day, and whilst he rises to 61kg, he is dropping back from a handy BM64, (second horse has since won in town), to a BM58 here. The first 200m will be crucial, if Allen has him on the leader’s back then this is the horse you want to be on.

Betting Strategy – Keen on (4) Ti Tree Lad.

Race 8 – Backing both No.8 Sacrify & No.14 Sephia

There looks good speed on paper. (4) Bergasun will lead, but think (6) Buzzaroon will keep him honest early. (8) Sacrify, (7) Galloping Guru and (13) Pulveriser won’t be far away.

Hate taking on Shane Jackson, as he’s a stable in form, but think there’s a bit against Bergasun here and he looks aggressively priced at $2.70. He got a picnic in front last start (20L below standard to the 800m), which turned the race into a sit-sprint that played into his hands. The start prior he was flattered by a several-length bias at Hamilton. He can win, but I can’t have him at the price.

Sacrify trialled very well leading into this campaign and whilst his first up run was just fair, it was over an unsuitable trip. He was terrific behind Xtra Rush at Sale in a race that has already produced several subsequent winners. The step to 2000m now third up is ideal and the strong tempo should suit. The query is the wet track, but the fact the stable are willing to run him 250km from their Flemington base is a positive sign.

(14) Sephia had no hope behind Bergasun the way the race was run. She reeled off some slick late splits there and now gets a 3kg weight swing with the likelihood of a much stronger tempo – she can turn the tables.

Betting Strategy – Backing both (8) Sacrify and (14) Sephia.