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Birdman on the way to the barriers prior to the running of  the Ladbrokes Geelong Cup at Geelong Racecourse on October 23, 2024 in Geelong, Australia. (Pat Scala/Racing Photos)

Birdman on the way to the barriers prior to the running of the Ladbrokes Geelong Cup at Geelong Racecourse on October 23, 2024 in Geelong, Australia. (Pat Scala/Racing Photos)

Caulfield Buy, Hold, Sell: The big winners, forgive runs and horses to risk

From dominant performances to underwhelming returns, here’s what to take out of Saturday’s Caulfield meeting.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
March 16, 2026
in News
Reading Time: 5 mins read
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Caulfield has played superbly in recent times, but on Saturday it simply didn’t.

The track team have done a terrific job over the past 12–18 months and have plenty of credits in the bank, so this is not a broadside. With the rail out 9m, the best ground on Saturday was clearly well off the fence, particularly as the meeting wore on. The inside quickly became a no-go zone, which is worth keeping in mind when reviewing the meeting.

Thanks to Vince Accardi’s Daily Sectionals, winners were in lanes 5,2,4,6,3,9,10,7,11,9 at the 200m mark.

Looking at the data, most races were run at a sedate tempo despite favourable wind conditions that should have allowed runners to go quicker early. Part of that might have been the incentive to lead near the rail was taken away, especially as the meeting wore on.

Gentle Steel appeared to defy that pattern when leading throughout and rolling back towards the fence in race two. However, after going eight lengths below standard to the 800m mark, it is hardly surprising she was able to win despite being in inferior ground.

A note in the stewards’ report also caught my eye.

Golden Trove was beaten 36 lengths on debut in The Showdown. Stewards asked John Allen to explain the poor performance, but he could not offer one, which is perfectly reasonable. If stewards were searching for an explanation though, they might not need to look much further than the horse’s jump-outs prior to debut, which suggested he was always likely to struggle in a $1 million race and maybe a maiden was a more appropriate kick off point. Anyway, hopefully with a spell in the paddock he comes back an improved horse and is quickly in the winner’s circle for trained Rodney Foster.

 

BUY

Big Wigs (Race 7)

Granted he was advantaged by the track pattern and it was not the strongest race, but it was still a good win.

This horse is crying out for further than 1200m. Not only does he hit the line strongly in his races, he travels sweetly in the run, which will help him as he steps up in trip.

BIG WIGS WINS THE SHOWDOWN‼️

Tony Santic wins the $1M feature two weeks on from Makybe Diva’s passing 💙🤍❤️@lneindorf @pstokesracing pic.twitter.com/VWDlsDYInT

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 14, 2026

Birdman (Race 8)

An obvious one, but this horse is airborne.

He had panels on his rivals on Saturday and should be three-from-three this preparation, having been completely luckless first up before two dominant wins. He will be awfully hard to beat in the Australian Cup in a fortnight.

He’s a new man 🦅

Birdman takes the G2 Peter Young Stakes easily! He’s gone to a new level this prep ⭐@bmelham @cwallerracing pic.twitter.com/qR5vdjFD31

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 14, 2026

Jigsaw (Race 10)

Same story as Birdman. This horse is absolutely in the zone, which is a credit to Cindy Alderson and Logan Bates.

The track pattern may actually have been a negative for Jigsaw as it dulled the usual advantage leaders enjoy. It did not matter. He monstered his rivals.

He has now won five on the bounce and the form around him continues to stack up. There is no reason he cannot be targeting lower-tier Group 1 races over the next six months.

VOBIS Gold Sprint| Jigsaw

The last start Group 1 winner POWERS clear in the VOBIS Gold Sprint, winning emphatically ⭐️

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/tfoU0z1Rvr

— Racing.com (@Racing) March 14, 2026


HOLD

Arabian Prince (Race 9)

He stayed back to the inside to save ground, but I suspect that was to his detriment despite taking the shortcut.

He stuck on OK first up at a mile and should improve significantly stepping to 2000m second up.

Different Gravy

Probably in a similar boat. Judge him off what he does second up, as that run looked very much like a fitness builder.

Notably, both horses had only one jump-out leading in, so they should strip significantly fitter next start.

The filly SALTY PEARL bests the boys in the $500,000 Platinum Guineas at Caulfield. @cmaherracing trains the 4YO by @YulongInvest‘s Tagaloa. John Allen was up!

The lucky last: https://t.co/36kjDRt4IY pic.twitter.com/1wOiLQHHLc

— FanDuel Racing (@FanDuel_Racing) March 14, 2026

SELL

Oh Too Good (Race 2)

Kevin Daffy has done a terrific job with this mare. She has been placed beautifully and produced several strong preparations.

But she was very plain first up on Saturday and faces a steep task to turn this campaign around from here.

Caulfield Race 2 | Gentle Steel

Gentle Steel & @jamieleemott never gave them a chance in the Mystic Journey 💨 This daughter of Alabama Express is building an impressive record 👀

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/JjbrMWRFzb

— Racing.com (@Racing) March 14, 2026

Yum (Race 4)

She won a soft Stakes race last preparation but has done little since.

She looked good to the eye first up at Flemington, but the numbers told a different story. She recorded only the 77th best last 400m and the 83rd best last 200m of the meeting, suggesting others simply fell in a hole.

She was poor again on Saturday and likely needs to drop back in grade to find a race she can win.

Tags: BirdmanBuy Hold SellCaulfield racing reviewCaulfield.Horses To FollowJigsawracing analysisVictorian Racing
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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