Summary of Best Bets:
Race 1 #9 Koolibah – Lightly raced and strong through the line last start.
Race 4 #3 Superhero – Well placed in this region and better for the fresh run.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 11m
- Forecast is not bad but this rail out so far just ruins meetings for me.
- What I feel will happen is the leaders win the first couple and all of a sudden everyone changes tactics, maps out the window and it’s a race to the first corner.
- Some love this set up, I do not.
Stats that matter:
- Angela Jones continues to ride winners. Striking at 20% from her last 50 rides and ROI +30%
- On the opposite side, Ceejay Graham has a lot of fans up here but just 3 wins from last 50 rides and ROI of -74%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(2) Big Tech has been big odds most starts but I thought the last start effort over 1600m at the Sunny Coast was really good. He is limited like all of them here, but out to this trip might be what he’s after.
A lot to like about (9) Koolibah. From a staying sire, in the Waller yard, and Thompson to ride. Attacked the line late at only 2nd career run last start and is looking for this trip. With even luck in running, she should beat these.
(11) Isla Delilah and (12) Promises Made went over the line together last start and both runs were good. Like the fact that was 2200m and they are rock hard fit. No questions with them running it out, while there are questions on the others.
Selections:
(9) Koolibah
(11) Isla Delilah
(12) Promises Made
(2) Big Tech
Suggested Bet: Win (9) Koolibah
Race 2:
Gates make this awkward. Gollan just outsmarts them in Qld and he won’t miss a trick here, expect him to be positive with his horses. (11) Reconciliate has mixed form but right in this and tactic will be right. Just looks a bit short for me.
(6) The Aviator isn’t a natural leader but took it up from the inside gate last start and ran well but was soft late. If he chooses to run I’d expect them to try and lead again. Can win if that happens.
(8) Woodrow is another leading chance, but from gate 11 I just don’t see a good story eventuating on the map. Mallyon rides for Lees, respect any positive market moves.
Not a great race.
Selections:
(6) The Aviator
(8) Woodrow
(11) Reconciliate
Suggested Bet: Very small e/w (6) The Aviator
Race 3:
(2) Carravilla had been flying this prep but was flat last start. I expected more late but it was a softening track and she is better on top of the ground.
(4) Laridae is in career best form but usually settles back. Maybe from gate 1 they will try to hold the leaders back if they go slow early. Takes the claim again and no reason he can’t win again here.
(6) Wild Gypsy looks the obvious leader and I feel if Jones can time the run well, it can win. She is no star but the pattern will suit and I like the race she comes out of last start.
(3) Eclair Awesome is one I have fallen for too many times, usually around the money but doesn’t win out of turn.
Selections:
(6) Wild Gypsy
(4) Laridae
(2) Carravilla
(3) Eclair Awesome
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
(3) Superhero had good form down south and the first-up run at Doomben was excellent. Got a bit further back than they may have liked but was strong down the running and through the line. Love the fact Thompson is on again and gate 3 might be a big help.
(1) Hell To Pay had been racing on speed and running well. Caught wide and just average last start. Draws better here and off the map he looks one of the main winning chances.
I like this (4) Tophet as a horse. Got the gun run last start and tried his best, just found one in form that was too good.
Selections:
(3) Superhero
(1) Hell To Pay
(4) Tophet
Suggested Bet: Win bet (3) Superhero
Race 5:
There will be multiple winners come out of this race moving forward, a good Maiden.
More questions than answers thanks to the barriers with rail out so far.
(8) Our Mate Locky has been attacking the line but is not a great horse out of the gates. If he’s slow out he might be in a very poor spot.
(10) Geitz is screaming to win a race. Best L400m or 200m in each of her last three runs. Big concern is the gate and the get back style of racing.
Same story with (9) Don’t Doubt Missy. She has improved every time she steps out whether it be a trial or race. She is strong late but the gate is the concern for her too.
Selections:
(10) Geitz
(9) Don’t Doubt Missy
(8) Our Mate Locky
(11) Talacrest
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
A lot of these have found their marks and not much upside left.
(5) Cordina was OK at first run for new stable. Was hard to make ground out wide and was a pass mark. Draws to land on leader’s back here and could be an improver.
(4) Music Fever has been nice and consistent in probably easier races. Maps to get the right run and mares in form are always worth following.
(2) Lunar Eight, (6) Divine Source and (3) Maragical have all shown glimpses of ability but are just average.
Selections:
(5) Cordina
(4) Music Fever
(6) Divine Source
(2) Lunar Eight
(3) Maragical
Suggested Bet: Small play (5) Cordina
Race 7:
(9) Marunouchi was well spruiked before the debut run and looked very good winning there. Got to the outside, showed a turn of foot and put them away easily. This is a jump but looks a good one in the making.
Hopefully you’ve stopped crying if you backed (3) Grammar Lad last start. Missed the kick, used up to find a spot and then pretty much held up the entire straight and beaten less than a length. Sure to win races and looks a real threat.
(8) Andi Don’t Care is no star but has been very consistent. Draws well, good jock/trainer combo and place chance again.
Selections:
(9) Marunouchi
(3) Grammar Lad
(8) Andi Don’t Care
(4) Joy A Plenty
Suggested Bet: Quinella 3 and 9
Race 8:
(3) Delrico is limited but improved 2nd up as expected and strips fitter again here. May need one more to top him off but like Thompson riding and most of Wallers seem to improve as they get into their preps.
(4) Guarded Optimist loomed on the corner in a better race than this last start and just a bit soft late. That 2200m at EF, rock hard fit and feel this is a very suitable target now.
(6) Tenbury Wells has a poor strike rate but ran well many times in better races down south. Joined the Munce yard and was a pass mark first run for them. Best L200m of the race that day and can run well again.
(7) Artful Girl would be a chance on her best form but we haven’t seen it for a bit.
Selections:
(4) Guarded Optimist
(6) Tenbury Wells
(3) Delrico
(7) Artful Girl
Suggested Bets: Split win bets for an interest (4) and (6)
