Summary of Best Bets:
Race 6 #5 Vavika – Trials have been good and this is the right trip. Happy with e/w around $6.
Value: Race 3 #1 Weigall Tiger – Opened $12 and straight to $8. No luck at all last start and is a 3rd up horse.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 4.5m
- Only 8 races and 89 acceptor, not sure what I have missed here. Very odd to only have that many go around at EF on a Saturday.
- Rail is in a good spot and only a chance of light showers, so we should be on a good 4- soft 5.
Stats that matter:
- Angela Jones has an ROI of +30% from her last 50 rides where she is striking at 20%. Just an avg book of rides today though.
- Mark Currie continues to strike around the 20% mark for the season and ROI of +34% from his last 50 runners.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
It’s so hard to win anywhere on debut and in town is obviously the hardest. I’ve loved what I have seen with (9) Subsiding and she can run a race. Will be better for whatever she does here though.
Birchley with 2yr olds is usually just follow. (1) On The Clock has been good every run and went to Toowoomba to break maiden status where he won by nearly 8L.
Thought the price (8) Night Market was ridiculous on debut and she got belted. Can be a lot better for that outing and Gollan will have her ready.
(2) Ever So Ready was backed on debut and was an easy winner. Tipped out straight after that and I think they must be aiming at the carnival. If they back it again, respect the market.
(7) Culminating has a future but the gate is not good and another who will be better for the day at the races and the experience that comes with it.
Selections:
(1).On The Clock
(2) Ever So Ready
(9) Subsidising
(8) Night Market
(7) Culminating
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 2:
Don’t like this race much at all.
(5) Jenni Moreesse was known as a non-winner but has now won 3 of her last 5. Takes a 3kg claim to carry 2kg less than her dominant win last start and this is her pet trip.
(4) Jack Duggan is past his best but is better for the two runs back and should be the improver 3rd up.
(3) Rezone has had five runs this prep and hasn’t finished worse than 2nd. Gets a 2kg claim to help and he will look the winner again at some stage for sure.
(2) Make A Call next best.
Selections:
(5) Jenni Moreesse
(3) Rezone
(4) Jack Duggan
(2) Make A Call
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 3:
Well (1) Weigall Tiger took off early, wide fresh and was a pass mark. Was trucking up behind then 2nd up and no luck whatsoever, should have been in the finish. Great 3rd up record (4:2:1:0), gets a 3kg claim and can win here in a very even race.
(4) Mr Buster was a different horse up in Qld last prep. Won three on the trot and was narrowly beaten fresh that time in work too. Placed in 4 of 6 fresh and fair weight for him.
(5) Last Command has been so consistent and best or second best L200m in all five runs this prep. Takes the 2kg claim and he will be strong late again.
Selections:
(1).Weigall Tiger
(5) Last Command
(4) Mr Buster
(3) Noble Conqueror
(8) Ariat
Suggested Bet: Win bet (1) Weigall Tiger and Quinella 1,4,5
Race 4:
Honestly, nothing would surprise and can make a case for all of them.
(7) Moonhaven has been good to me and a strong winner his last two runs. Both have been on this track. Out to 1200m isn’t the biggest concern, but it is a query. Right in this again.
(6) About To Explode always take a run and he improved 2nd up. He’d love firm ground here so want the rain to stay away. Has a good turn of foot and expecting his very best 3rd run back.
I have them as my winning hopes but (1) Slippin’ Jimmy, (3) He’s Heaven and (4) Pocket Full all have the ability to win on their day. Maybe even (5) Brereton if the market liked him.
Selections:
(6) About To Explode
(7) Moonhaven
(1) Slippin’ Jimmy
(4) Pocket Full
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (6) About To Explode
Race 5:
Some nice horses with upside engaged here and looks a good race where the form will stand up.
Loved the trial of (1) The Enchanter at the GC. Just kept making ground behind a good one the whole straight under minimal pressure.
Last time we seen (6) Smexy she was 2nd in a G3 behind Ninja. Close up 2nd before that and comes here off a let up. Has the ability to win here for sure.
Plenty of upside in (12) First Empire. Been in the money 5 of 6 starts, had has a freshen up and has run well on the track.
I never thought (8) Zoufani was that strong of a horse but she has always been consistent and she was excellent through the line when ridden quitter last start. Not sure their tactics from the wide gate so I am not sure what to do with her.
Nothing went right for (11) Time Of My Life last start. Poor ride and poor recovery, so put a line through the run.
Selections:
(12) First Empire
(1) The Enchanter
(6) Smexy
(8) Zoufani
(11) Time Of My Life
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,6,12
Race 6:
Gee this is difficult to line up.
(4) Angel Ladder and (1) Dr Farthing fought the finish out last start and both of them were $21. You’d think Dr Farthing might take more out of the run but Angel Ladder gets in 3kg better at the weights here to even it up.
(5) Vavika has shown a lot in her short career. Only plain run was 1200m behind Alpha Sofie. 1000m is her go, both trials have been good and love the fact the last trial was this week, the stable don’t do that often.
(2) The Pool Boy was a strong winner last start and has shown enough to be in the money here.
Selections:
(5) Vavika
(4) Angel Ladder
(1) Dr Farthing
(3) Sweet Hesitation
Suggested Bet: e/w (5) Vavika
Race 7:
I have underrated (11) Savagery Vibe and the last couple of runs have been great. Missed last start but was the 2nd best L200m of the race and that makes me feel this trip will be ok for her.
(3) True To Form had a stable change to Lees and won at $18 first start for the stable. Was good late there and hard to knock.
I have always liked (5) Facundo but I expected more last start. Thought they may have tinkered with some head gear but it seems not. Draws well for a good apprentice. Not sure what to do with him now.
(12) Cinque Terre has had a great prep. Dominant winner two back and then best L400m and 200m of the race last start over 1200m.
(7) Acappella Sun has won 2 of 3 and going as well as she can. I really struggle to catch her days but she runs well for this apprentice and 3kg claim again.
Selections:
(12) Cinque Terre
(11) Savagery Vibe
(5) Facundo
(3) True To Form
(7) Acappella Sun
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
(2) Celestial Blaze is in career best form. I had a knock at the price last start and got it wrong. Has always been consistent but now stringing some wins together.
(4) Lupine was good around this grade last prep and has had the two runs back to be rock hard fit for this. Dominant in an easier race at Warwick last start but takes the claim and can be in the finish.
Second up syndrome the only query on (6) Rock Ya. Had 462 days between preps and was excellent when resuming. If he happened to bounce out of that run he can win, just watch the market.
I can’t be on the win line with (12) Creativity Miss with 1 win in 14 runs. She has been very good this prep and best L200m her last three runs. Feel this trip might be what she is after.
Selections:
(2) Celestial Blaze
(12) Creativity Miss
(6) Rock Ya
(4) Lupine
Suggested Bets: No
