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Buy, Hold, Sell: Tancred Day throws up key Championships clues

Dean Watling breaks down Tancred Day through a ratings lens, identifying the horses to follow, forgive and take on as The Championships begin.

Dean Watling by Dean Watling
March 31, 2026
in News, The Championships
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Dean Watling’s Road To The Championships series rolls on into week one of Sydney’s feature carnival, and his Tancred Day review has thrown up a few horses to follow, a handful to forgive, and some form lines he is happy to oppose heading deeper into The Championships.

 

Buy

Snow Leopard ate up what was a brutally run 2000m Tulloch Stakes tempo. He was strong late and had to do all of the heavy lifting, dragging the field up. Rated 95 WFA.

Storm Leopard an impressive winner of the Tulloch Stakes 🔴⚫

The favourite Arcora was pulled up at the halfway mark, we will provide an update when it comes to hand. @tommyberry21 @lindsayparkrace @MyRacehorseANZ pic.twitter.com/9d0DugAHvv

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 28, 2026

Eureka Rebel produced some run coming off a last-start maiden win, stayed at the 2000m and relished the fast tempo. His +1.8 last 600m was easily the race-best figure. He looks a sneaky Derby type if they head that way. Rated 92.3 WFA.

Reachin’ Out was a wow debut performer on the Kensington track on Wednesday. A 95.5 WFA rating on debut by a two-year-old is very impressive and she looks black-type quality.

Captain Furai had ratings suggesting he would come back better and he stamped that opinion on Saturday. He had been running career peaks on dry ground that did not suit, then got the right conditions and exploded, running a 96.0 WFA rating in BM88 grade. He looks up to black-type level now.

Captain Furai too strong in the fifth at Rosehill and J-Mac is on the board 🥇@mcacajamez @cwallerracing pic.twitter.com/fk0TJZKa8Q

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 28, 2026

Hold

Barnavara did not get the expected race set-up after being snagged back to last and throwing her head, but in hindsight it is a pattern often seen with Waller imports first-up. She resented being restrained and burnt energy fighting McDonald. Trust the $1.70 SP and expect to see the real version next start.

Wootton Verni bolts in the Neville Sellwood‼️

$10M purchase Barnavara battled away for 4th…@TommyBerry21 @cwallerracing pic.twitter.com/SnmacOzHcU

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 28, 2026

Modella is worth forgiving. While the Rosehill track looked to be playing fairly, horses closing off in wider lanes were still hitting a wall over the final 200m. She loomed like the winner before peaking on her run. Happy to hold and see where she turns up next.

Ohope Wins had plenty against her. She came off a Group 1 2400m New Zealand Oaks win, had 35 days between runs, a tick-over trial, and then dropped back to 2000m in an absolute sit-and-sprint. That was a recipe for an underwhelming result. Dean is happy to forgive her off that tempo, back to 2400m, and trust her SP.

Panova finally showed signs she is getting back to something like her best in the Phar Lap before not getting the right set-up on Saturday. She still looks like a horse that wants a genuinely run 2000m race or further.

Sell

Globe looks like a horse with something amiss and Dean doubts we will see him again this autumn.

2YO Baillieu Quality was the worst-rated edition of the race in the past five years by a margin. Winner Southend rated 87.0 WFA. It is usually a key lead-up to the Group 1 Sires’ Produce Stakes and Champagne Stakes, but Dean is happy to take on the entire field from that race next start.

Southend makes it two from two in the G3 Baillieu 🥇🥇@djgibbons22 @RARacing_ pic.twitter.com/sxlbVCyrFS

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 28, 2026

Belle Cheval (over 2000m) might now technically have 2000m on the resume, but Dean is not buying the narrative that she truly saw it out. She went -11.2L against standard to the 800m mark before gradually building from there, was gifted an extremely soft run in transit, had every possible chance in the key lanes to put the race away, and just lasted.

Tags: buy hold sell tancred daychampionships form guidehorse racing analysis australiaracing ratings analysisroad to the championshipsSydney racing tipstancred stakes day reviewwatling tips
Dean Watling

Dean Watling

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