Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: R10 (6) Flying For Fun
- Next Best: R5 (3) Profoundly
- Next Value: R3 (9) Reachin’ Out
Race by race overview
Race 1
Tricky start to the day.
I’ll lean the way of the last start winner, (1) Hydrobomb. Full of fitness and maps to get a lovely run from the gate.
(6) Salann has been very well backed in early markets, wet to dry looks to suit and she’ll have smart natural improvement.
(5) Stitzer was only beaten 3.1L on debut, improvement to come here and gets Lloyd in the saddle.
(3) Diameter rounds out the numbers off a plain last start run.
Selections:
(1) Hydrobomb
(6) Salann
(5) Stitzer
(3) Diameter
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
One of the better betting races across the card. Stacks of chances and a real lack of speed.
(4) Regal Award copped a plain run in transit first-up when trapped wide, draws much better here and has been well backed in early markets.
(1) Beskar was a surprise winner last time out, he has shown glimpses of that form in the past but lacks consistency.
(8) Mareth deserves another chance, she’ll get a gun run in transit from gate 4 on a day where the rail may be key. In the mix.
Selections:
(4) Regal Award
(1) Beskar
(8) Mareth
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
I have to trust the eye and times with (9) Reachin’ Out here in the Percy Sykes. She did find the right ground but ran the hands off the clock, that form also ties in closely to the Kindgarten Stakes last week. She’ll lead for a long way.
I was very impressed by the recent trial of (1) Medicinal, race fit and kept up to the mark with that trial. Slightly sticky gate but is going well.
(6) Cherry Bomshell is the smokey of the field, she brings completely different form lines to this event through Queensland, smart tick-over trial and looks over the odds.
What do we do with (2) Satono Glow? Back to back eye-catching wins but is yet to rate anywhere near a top line 2yo. Cracking race.
Selections:
(9) Reachin’ Out
(1) Medicinal
(6) Cherry Bomshell
(2) Satono Glow
Suggested Bet: Reachin’ Out WIN
Race 4
Provincial-Midway Final.
(5) Matcha Latte comes into this race off a strong last start win and now looks primed fourth-up, kind enough starting point should offset the draw.
(3) Il Passero has come up massive odds, extremely underrated horse. Yes, draws sticky but the big field should see tempo on.
(1) Lord Of Biscay comes through a very strong heat leading into this, massive plus with McDonald aboard and there does look to be enough speed on paper to run on.
(4) Mogul Monarch is another who can outrun their SP, an understated galloper who maps to get the run of the race.
Selections:
(5) Matcha Latte
(3) Il Passero
(1) Lord Of Biscay
(4) Mogul Monarch
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
Fascinating edition of the Australian Oaks.
(3) Profoundly was exceptional in the Adrian Knox, eased down late and had plenty up the sleeve. The gate is a slight query here but with the 2400m starting point and lack of tempo, I expect Berry to push the button early.
(1) Ohope Wins is one of the harder horses to assess on the card. The sit-and-sprint Vinery didn’t suit her at all, back to 2400m now where she won the NZ Oaks suits.
(4) Soverato goes in the mix, first go at 2000m last week and should be rock hard fit now up to 2400m.
(2) After Summer was a surprise last start when nearly knocking off Belle Cheval in the Vinery, 2400m suits now.
Selections:
(3) Profoundly
(1) Ohope Wins
(4) Soverato
(2) After Summer
Suggested Bet: Profoundly WIN
Race 6
It’s a smart edition of the Arrowfield Sprint, stacks of speed engaged up front over the 1200m which will likely see a 3-wide line established.
I can’t go past (9) Tempted, she could put her hand up as our best 3yo sprinter. Back to 1200m and should blend into the race beautifully with this 3-wide line.
(10) Caffe Florian is the horse at odds who’ll run well, peak fitness now third-up and maps to get a lovely run, she’s building well.
(3) Grafterburners is his own worst enemy, if he is to jump, he can slide across and land in the 1-1 or outside the leader. From there, he’ll be in the finish.
You could make a case (2) Devil Night should have won the William Reid with even luck, gun run here from gate 1 and if the rail is hot, watch out.
Selections:
(9) Tempted
(10) Caffe Florian
(3) Grafterburners
(2) Devil Night
Suggested Bet: Tempted WIN
Race 7
The next of the Group 1s, the 3200m Sydney Cup. Even contest this year with plenty of winning chances.
(4) Soul Of Spain was tracking well towards this grand final before a plain effort last start, happy to forgive one bad run and put him on top.
(1) River Of Stars looks set to peak here over the 3200m, 4th in the Melbourne Cup and now gets McDonald.
(11) Mr Monaco is the confidence horse in the field, peak fitness and will eat up any sort of tempo. The slight knock is the gate.
(12) Machine Gun Gracie is the surprise addition to the field, dominant last start winner but that was over 1900m. Straight to 3200m is a question mark.
Selections:
(4) Soul Of Spain
(1) River Of Stars
(11) Mr Monaco
(12) Machine Gun Gracie
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
What a fascinating edition of the Queen Of The Turf Stakes, the addition of Pride Of Jenni adds so much interest.
It looks to be D-day for (2) Lady Shenandoah, she finally gets back out to 1600m and gets McDonald back aboard. She’ll get a lovely run on the fence, back to a dry deck is another big tick.
(8) Idle Flyer maps very sticky but has the turn of speed to get herself out of that position. Peak fitness now too.
I like (1) Pride Of Jenni sticking to the 1600m here, she comes off an enormous last start effort in the Australian Cup. If she’s bounced off that run, watch out.
(3) Treasurethe Moment bounced back last start but that was in inferior grade. She’ll get a smart run in transit and should have every chance.
Selections:
(2) Lady Shenandoah
(8) Idle Flyer
(1) Pride Of Jenni
(3) Treasurethe Moment
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
The pinnacle of the Autumn, the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2000m.
Will she or won’t she get 2000m? Everything leading up to this grand final screams (7) Autumn Glow will eat up a fast run 2000m contest and has the ability to go to a new level here. Maps to get the 1-1 and it’s her race to lose.
(2) Sir Delius is the big improver, he was super second-up in the Ranvet and now looks set to peak for his prep over the 2000m.
(1) Dubai Honour has to go in the mix, 2400m fast run contest back to 2000m here, from that gate I expect him to push forward and settle outside of Lindermann.
(8) Aeliana has a decision to make early from the wide draw, career best effort last start when winning the Tancred, back to 2000m is the only query now.
Selections:
(7) Autumn Glow
(2) Sir Delius
(1) Dubai Honour
(8) Aeliana
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 10
Good end to the program.
(6) Flying For Fun has come back a better horse this prep, slick first-up win and has been kept up to the mark with a smart tick-over trial. Lloyd sticks and she should get across from the draw.
(3) Gangsta Granny peaks now, the wide gate shouldn’t pose any issues with her tactical speed. The danger.
Keen to see what (1) Splash Back can do first-up, 1200m is a touch short but I expect a forward showing.
(4) Catch The Glory has to be in the picture, smart fresh win but does tend to regress second-up.
Selections:
(6) Flying For Fun
(3) Gangsta Granny
(1) Splash Back
(4) Catch The Glory
Suggested Bet: Flying For Fun WIN
