Mitch Ellis nailed several jumps races over the Warrnambool Carnival and he’s back to preview a big meeting at Casterton on Sunday.
The last jumps meeting at Casterton, on Sunday July 27, 2025, saw the track play well for the jumpers in the Heavy 8 range, but it wasn’t a complete bog track. The chase course tends to play heavier than the hurdle course.
Showers are forecast across the weekend and the locals aren’t confident they’ll stay away. There isn’t a huge amount of rain forecast, but that can change, so keep an eye on conditions.
The track was rated a Soft 5 at time of writing, Friday May 15 at 12pm. Hopefully we don’t get worse than a Heavy 8 on raceday.
It is always worth following Warrnambool form into this meeting, with past years showing it has been a fantastic form reference.
Race 1 – 12:35pm
Maiden Hurdle – 3500m
(10) Untethered had a good opinion of this horse before his odd debut. Bounced out of that with a terrific effort at the Bool, ultimately beaten on the line by a heavy-track specialist. Beat everything else fair and square, including key rivals here. Has a great will to win.
(8) Sunday Buzz was good on jumps debut, beaten into third by two likely types. Looks likely to make the speed and should be fitter fourth-up.
(3) Ferago is a talented flat horse, who was only 2.5 lengths off winning a Geelong Cup last year, and is on jumping debut. Won two hurdle trials nicely before a fitness top-up run at Warrnambool. Very intriguing runner. His class on the flat will take him a long way and he can jump.
(1) Ardakan is two races into his short jumping career and he’s already testing the patience of punters. Cost himself the race both times with poor jumping at the last two obstacles. He was still coming late on the flat last start.
Suggested bet: Untethered win. Sunday Buzz each-way.
Race 2 – 1:15pm
Open Hurdle – 3500m
(2) Point Nepean was a great first-up winner at Hamilton. That run at Warrnambool, first time over fences, with a big weight on very heavy ground, he never looked comfortable. Back with a very winnable weight here, over the hurdles, and is definitely the starting point for punters.
(1) Enchanted Elle is prepared to give her first-up jumps run a forgive. Will be fitter here and she grows another leg at Casterton, with three starts for two wins and a second. Will control the race in the small field and should be hard to run down at her favourite track.
(3) Fengarada was okay on debut, followed that up with a brilliant win on Day 1 at the Bool and a gallant second on Day 3. That was at a bigger track, which may have helped his cause. Loves the very heavy going, so any rain on the day will help. The worse it gets, the more he comes into calculations.
(4) Karburan was good on debut, then forgive the next two as he was probably out of his depth, but not disgraced. Back in grade here and can run well. Just not sure he’s got the class just yet.
Suggested bet: Point Nepean win. Boxed exacta: 1 and 2.
Race 4 – 2:35pm
Two Rivers Steeplechase – 3800m
(3) Fabalot is a terrific jumps campaigner. Last season he was going about the same as he is now over hurdles, not being disgraced but not winning. He then went to the bigger jumps and produced four brilliant efforts, culminating in a 14-length victory over eventual Grand National winner Leaderboard. Has been here before and likes it. This looks a good race for him.
(1) The Mighty Spar is the current “King of Casterton”. Has won this race the past two years. Was okay at the Bool in the two feature steeplechases. Returns to his best track here and is well weighted. The extra run in the Grand Annual might have taken a bit out of him, though.
(4) Castrofrancaru is starting to find form now over the bigger obstacles, as he showed early in his career. Was a good third in the Brierly before pulling up with EIPH. If he has recovered well, the further the better for him. Loves wet tracks, which he should get here, and he will run well.
(5) Golden Garden was an awesome winner at the Bool. Not sure he leads as easily here and he does step up in grade. Wouldn’t discount a Wilde runner at Casterton, but this is a much tougher assignment.
Suggested bet: Fabalot win. Castrofrancaru is a good each-way option.
Early Quaddie
Race 1: 3, 8, 10
Race 2: 1, 2
Race 3: 2, 3, 4
Race 4: 1, 3, 4
$54 for 100%.
Best Bet: Point Nepean
Best Value: Castrofrancaru
