Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 6 (2) Gwen’s Girl
- Next Best: Race 3 (1) Rich Dottie
Race by race overview
Race 1
A difficult way to begin the day’s racing. Barbarino (1) has been highly impressive in three jump-outs, winning all. He is in an unfashionable yard, but that hasn’t stopped the early money. Nice horse.
Melbourne Magic (4) hadn’t raced in 302 days prior to last start. It was very heavy going, so his poor performance is very forgivable. He has run the best ratings in this race thus far.
Caccione (2) was beaten over five furlongs narrowly last start. Quickly rising to six, he can improve and win this without surprising.
My Bonnie Lassie (8) was beaten by a talented horse most recently in rain-affected conditions. She can quickly improve.
Selections:
(1) Barbarino
(4) Melbourne Magic
(2) Caccione
(8) My Bonnie Lassie
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Our Brave Boy (1) was narrowly beaten in a race that has produced strong form. Without any urgency to bet right now, I do think that he will start favourite tomorrow.
Rubare (2) ran fast time at this course twenty-one days ago and has plenty of talent.
Vega Vixen (10) is lightning quick from the barriers and will make the pace.
Bourne Legacy (3) has trialled well leading into this.
Selections:
(1) Our Brave Boy
(2) Rubare
(10) Vega Vixen
(3) Bourne Legacy
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
They’ll go like Oakleigh Platers in this. Rich Dottie (1) may be the one to cope with the fierce speed and finish the strongest. She has form far better than this grade previously and can return with a win if Begg can recapture her best.
Cavalry Girl (2) will surely look to find the lead, but from gate seven that may be difficult. Craig Williams is a positive booking, and she has jumped out well.
Magnabelle Royale (3) raced wide last time when the pace was strong. She may appreciate a far more suitable run this time.
Saluted (6) has rightfully been replaced as favourite. This is her optimal course and distance, but she resumes after a 229-day spell.
Selections:
(1) Rich Dottie
(2) Cavalry Girl
(3) Magnabelle Royale
(6) Saluted
Suggested Bet: Rich Dottie (1)
Race 4
Glenfinnan (7)’s absolute best would have him favourite in a race of this quality, but he’s not quite been at that level in 12 months. Though, connections have applied blinkers for the first time fourth-up. This all looks very intentional.
Blue Cowboy (10) has been poor in two runs this campaign, but both have been under apprentices. He’s a big horse that may need some encouraging, so Daniel Stackhouse is a promising engagement.
Pula (8) is quite obviously the correct favourite, with the highest last-start rating, though there will be significantly more pressure in this race than last, making him an opposable favourite.
Superstock (5) can improve back in class.
Selections:
(7) Glenfinnan
(10) Blue Cowboy
(8) Pula
(5) Superstock
Suggested Bet: Glenfinnan (7)
Race 5
Another quite opposable favourite. Boonie (2) has had a plethora of excuses over the last 12 months and may be able to find the lead here. If Tom Dabernig can recapture the form he was in early last year, he’s an excellent 40/1 flyer.
Demojo (1) has won five of eleven, rates well and should appreciate a relatively soft run behind what I anticipate will be a fast pace.
Royal Flare (8) is highly exciting for Brendan McCarthy, but I could not justify the rating the market is expecting of him. He has jumped out extraordinarily well, and looked as if Saturday-grade racing awaited him in two starts last campaign, but five furlongs is not optimal. He will eventuate into a seven-furlong horse.
Faraway Dream (9) won on the bridle on debut, but hasn’t quite progressed the way that I’m sure connections would have liked. She will probably be best over this distance, but gate twelve makes things tricky.
Selections:
(2) Boonie
(1) Demojo
(8) Royal Flare
(9) Faraway Dream
Suggested Bet: Boonie (2) and Demojo (1)
Race 6
Gwen’s Girl (2) probably wasn’t at home on the heavy going at Warrnambool last start after a 67-day layoff. She has the speed to take up the lead over five furlongs in this, and has run to the level of form required to win this previously.
Blondie’s Award (9) is improving with every start, running fast late time over fast overall time to break her maiden at Cranbourne last start. She will also appreciate a soft run behind the fast speed.
Price Tag (1) is the most talented horse in this field, though she has had injuries that have derailed her career thus far. She resumed and won at Cranbourne but didn’t receive any pressure whatsoever for the lead. That will change in this. She may not be ready for what this will be.
Amping Lass (7) has been well supported early. I’m not entirely sure five furlongs is optimal, but she has an abundance of talent. If they go too quickly, she can finish well.
Selections:
(2) Gwen’s Girl
(9) Blondie’s Award
(1) Price Tag
(7) Amping Lass
Suggested Bet: Gwen’s Girl (2) and Blondie’s Award (9)
Race 7
Nearing Liberty (4) improved last campaign and has trialled well. She has been scratched twice prior, Ben Melham has been engaged and there has been early support. I don’t anticipate her being here for a look around.
Vivacissimo (9) returned with a new peak at Bendigo. He will appreciate a soft run behind the speed and can hold that level of form.
Modown (1) is by far contesting the weakest race she has seen in quite some time. She is better than her last two starts would suggest and deserves to be single figures, in my opinion.
Cat Noir (14e) has underperformed on heavily rain-affected tracks and can improve. If she can find the lead, she may be difficult to run down.
Selections:
(4) Nearing Liberty
(9) Vivacissimo
(1) Modown
(14e) Cat Noir
Suggested Bet: Nearing Liberty (4) win
Race 8
Ka Ying Cheer (1) ran to a new peak in Australia last start at Bendigo. If he can hold that level, I’m not sure any of these can match him. There’s lots of pressure in this, though, so he may not have quite as soft a run as he did last start.
Barbaric Lad (8) is best when the pace is on, most likely because he is desperate for further than six furlongs, in my opinion. From gate six, he may be able to settle in front of a few by default. This will be his best opportunity to win a race this preparation.
Haraldus (9) has jumped out well and has talent. The new stable may have him well prepared first-up, though barrier one is less than ideal.
Prancing Spirit (4) drops back in class.
Selections:
(1) Ka Ying Cheer
(8) Barbaric Lad
(9) Haraldus
(4) Prancing Spirit
Suggested Bet: No Bet
