Turf talk:
- Rail out 6m having been True at the most recent Hillside meeting, albeit all the racing was done out very wide on the track.
- Track at Heavy 8 at Saturday morning but the Club has put out a note that if high winds persist it could be upgraded. That said, the forecast also calls for between 7-15mm of rain this afternoon and evening, so the timing of that will have an impact.
- The Hillside track has a lovely 490m home straight that generally gives horses a chance to make ground, provided they have the talent.
Key stats:
- Patrick Payne is in hot form, going at 23% from his last 100 runners (26.2% PoT)
- Anthony & Sam Freedman are in a rare form slump. Just 7 winners from their last 100 runners (-44.1% PoT) and 3 from their past 50 (-55% PoT).
- Billy Egan is the form hoop going at 20% his past 100 rides (21.8% PoT).
Race 1
Good 2yo race.
(4) Mbube has never been let off the chain but sheesh, he moves well in his work. Suspect he will have a lethal turn of foot when given his head. Wide-open expanses of Hillside should suit. In-form hoop in the saddle.
(7) Stars Of Dom was good late on debut behind Divine Dot. Think this is a stronger race and she might want further in time, but race experience will assist.
(9) Superbec debuts with the crossover nose band having worn it in jump-outs. Really speedy filly who will be in front a long way. Last 100m on wet ground may be the query.
Selections:
(4) Mbube
(7) Stars Of Dom
(9) Superbec
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 2
Looks good speed.
(6) Amping Lass gets 5.5kg on Brilliant Horizon from their last meeting and think she will get a more suitable track/tempo. At the very least she closes the gap, but suspect she can turn the tables.
(2) Brilliant Horizon trialled brilliantly prior to her first-up win, where she dominated from the front on Lakeside. It was an edge to be on speed that day, and she might face a different scenario on Saturday, but she handles the slop and makes her own luck.
(12) Lucky Single is a nice horse. Strong to the line on debut then a good maiden win at Moe last start. No issue getting through the wet ground. Do wonder if she’s looking for 1400m off that Moe win, but maybe the big track offsets.
(1) Davida has good speed and think she has her share of ability. Trialled nicely, as she always does. First up on a heavy track a concern.
Race doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(6) Amping Lass
(2) Brilliant Horizon
(12) Lucky Single
Suggested bet: Maybe something small E/W Amping Lass
Race 3
(2) Sweet Jasmine looks over the odds at $20. She sprinted quickly to win well fresh at Sale (form out of the race suspect but time was strong) then stuck to the inferior ground at Pakenham last time out. Gets Billy Egan, preferred wet ground and rises to a mile – she can run well.
(4) Cooly got her campaign back on track with a dominant win last time out. Maps for a lovely run here and loves these winter tracks. Her stablemate (10) Street Lark went around favourite in that same race and was held up at a crucial stage – she drops in weight and should strip fitter now third-up off two good runs. The query for her is wet ground.
(6) Oraqua was well beaten by First Chorus at Caulfield last start but she was back towards the inside, which was clearly inferior ground. Third-up now, she looks ready to strike. Mitch Freedman has done a great job with her since he took over from Chris Waller.
Selections:
(2) Sweet Jasmine
(10) Street Lark
(6) Oraqua
(4) Cooly
Suggested bet: Small EW Sweet Jasmine
Race 4
Speed looks solid through (6) Undisputable, (8) Lil Orlov, (12) Western Legend and (7) Zebra Finch.
(2) Clevor Trever got to the right part of the track at Caulfield in winning last start, but was dominant by the same token. Form from behind him when winning first-up at Bendigo has stacked up well. Wide draw/big spacious track suit.
Love how (13) Cardamom trialled coming into this off a little freshen. She didn’t have a lot of luck at Flemington behind Concord Connie, finishing alongside Cooly (who has since won). Little knock is fitness levels being seven weeks between runs.
(11) Victory Tune was good two back (beating home Sulek) then five weeks between runs when just peaking late at the same track last start. Backs up quicker here, gets a handy claim and should be strong late.
Selections:
(2) Clevor Trever
(13) Cardamom
(11) Victory Tune
(12) Western Legend
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 5
Race knocked about by the scratching of early favourite Big Swinger.
(4) El Rocko leads from (1) Punch Lane.
(9) Boltsaver will appreciate the genuine tempo. Doesn’t win out of turn – or when it’s his turn(!) – but he’s an absolute duck and this looks a brilliant opportunity for him to post an overdue win. Super on a heavy deck two back over 1400m at the ‘Bool and while he’s up in class, he drops in weight.
(1) Punch Lane generally produces some of his best ratings of a preparation third-up, and on heavy ground, but not sure how well he is going. He was OK late in the Wangoom but pretty plain this track and trip last start; the one caveat being he backed up off that very heavy ‘Bool track inside 17 days. He should still have fitness improvement to come having had a long spell prior to this campaign. Inclined to have him on side at $11.
(4) El Rocko is going to get a mighty soft lead and 1400m is far more suitable than the mile of last start. Drops 2kg on his run this track and trip two back when swallowed late after setting a moderate tempo. He will be in front a long way – the last 50m will be wobbly.
Selections:
(9) Boltsaver
(4) El Rocko
(1) Punch Lane
(7) Grid Girl
Suggested bet: Something small Boltsaver (if the rain arrives)
Race 6
(5) Tristate looks the best roughie in the race. He was never a factor first-up at Caulfield but did get home the best last 400/200m splits of the meeting when forced back to the inferior ground. He was coming off a long spell so should strip fitter, and like that he’s been freshened up given he’s staying at the 1000m. Not mad on gate one, but he is $35!
(8) Nimbustwothousand has trialled up enormous for this fresh run. Like the wide draw and strong tempo for him. Heavy ground would be a huge plus.
(15) Cicala comes up a short-priced favourite having shown great promise in SA. The knock is she’s 287 days between runs and we’re being asked to take $3.60! She also seemed to wear bandages in her latest trial, albeit she did perform nicely. Can win, but can do so without mine on at that price.
(1) Beast Mode has trialled typically well – he will give a good sight on speed, but there’s plenty of pressure in the race.
(14) Landmark will need a good ride and he’s a get-back sprinter drawn low. However, he is airborne this campaign and will charge at them late.
(9) Zouper Fund was scratched from Flemington last week due to an abscess. Has a chance, just would’ve liked to see him trial a touch better.
(6) Hi Dubai ran 1.98L third to Autumn Glow and Gangsta Granny on a heavy deck back in August 2025 – a repeat of that would see her belt these. However, two runs this campaign have been putrid – not sure she has come up.
Selections:
(5) Tristate
(8) Nimbustwothousand
(15) Cicala
(14) Landmark
Suggested bets: Small plays on roughies Tristate and Nimbustwothousand
Race 7
Sheeesh, the two leaders have been scratched on race morning so the speed has really come out of the race.
Could be a serious stayer, (9) Straand Deal. Absolutely relished a strong tempo over 2100m at Lakeside when demolishing his rivals last time out. Form out of his win prior at Morphettville has been sound. Rises significantly in weight here, but he has the potential to quickly rise through the grades.
(5) Simurgh is also a most promising, lightly-raced stayer. Two good wins at 2000m should have him ready to step in trip. Rises in weight and this is probably tougher than last start, but has untapped staying potential.
(7) Skippers Canyon gets a weight turnaround on Simurgh from not being beaten far last time out. Not 100% convinced he’s a genuine stayer as yet – more a 1600m-2000m horse – but he continues to hit the line strongly.
(4) Aberfeldie Boy goes around a huge price for running OK behind both Simurgh and Skippers Canyon. Think he’s going nicely now for the new stable and 2400m is ideal.
Selections:
(9) Straand Deal
(5) Simurgh
(7) Skippers Canyon
(4) Aberfeldie Boy
Suggested bet: Happy to watch, but taking all four in the quaddie.
Race 8
Not a race I am keen on. Original top tip was Tazima who was scratched on Thursday. Then Gilded Water scratched on race morning.
(9) Sir Atlas didn’t have a lot of luck when 70 days between runs this track over a mile last start. He generally goes well second-up and should get a reasonable trail from gate four. The 1800m may be some query – best has been up to a mile.
(8) Makdane didn’t get pattern to suit at Caulfield last start. He’s a gun wet tracker who should get a soft run on speed.
Wasn’t much between (1) Bankers Choice and (3) Pudding last start and think that will again be the case.
Selections:
(9) Sir Atlas
(8) Makdane
(3) Pudding
(1) Bankers Choice
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 9
Tough way to finish, as evidenced by it being $5 the field! First two top selections were scratched.
(3) Emmadella looks ready now third-up off a long spell. Hit the line well in two runs for the Dabernig stable and looks suited to 1400m now.
(4) Lovelycut bounced back to form last time out. She has a habit of laying in, so the near-side bubble cheeker goes on to help straighten her up. Wide draw late in the day shouldn’t be a concern.
(14) Thebelmontgangster is going to get a sweet run on speed but he was entitled to put the race away last start with the run he had. He also struggled on genuinely heavy ground at the ‘Bool so if the rain arrives it would be a query for him.
(8) Storm Season has trialled up nicely and she goes well fresh. The query would be fitness if the track ends up in the heavy range.
Selections:
(4) Lovelycut
(3) Emmadella
(14) Thebelmontgangster
(8) Storm Season
Suggested bet: Cheering home the quaddie.
