Easy As 1, 2, 3 For Willo And Freedman? Think Again
Spare a thought for the punters who thought it would be as easy as 1, 2, 3 for Willo and Team Freedman at Wangaratta on Sunday.
Less than 24 hours after riding at Eagle Farm on Stradbroke Day, Craig Williams was back in action on a rain-soaked Heavy 10 at Wangaratta with three rides for Anthony and Sam Freedman. All three were prominent in betting and all three were beaten.
The result also came against the backdrop of a rare lean patch for one of Australia’s premier training operations.
Betsy highlighted on Thursday that Anthony and Sam Freedman had managed just seven winners from their previous 100 runners, producing a return on turnover of -44.1%. Zoom in further and the numbers were even more surprising, with just three winners from their previous 50 starters at a -55% return on turnover.
Anthony & Sam Freedman are in a rare form slump.
Just 7 winners from their last 100 runners (-44.1% PoT) and 3 from their past 50 (-55% PoT).
That’s well below their career strike rate of 18.1% and 16.2% over the past 12 months.
— Betsy (@betsy_com_au) June 11, 2026
To put that into perspective, the stable’s career strike rate sits at 18.1%, while they have operated at 16.2% over the past 12 months.
There was some relief on Saturday when The Belmontgangster saluted at Sandown, but Sunday’s Wangaratta meeting ensured the conversation around the stable’s recent results isn’t going away just yet.
Deadly Force kicked off the day on debut for billionaire owner, MRC vice-chairman and TROA president Jonathan Munz. Sure, he covered ground in the run, but he was plain by the same token, battling into fifth.
The colt didn’t have a lot of early speed, leaving Williams with a choice: drag back towards the tail or stay deep and in the race. Suspect the latter was the right call. The horse simply wasn’t good enough on the day.
Race 2 produced a similar result with the resuming Jimmy Beans. Some punters were aghast to see Williams posted three wide from barrier four, but the winner started at 100/1 and sat even wider on speed throughout.
It may not have been the perfect ride, but blaming the jockey misses the bigger picture. The right horse won the race and Jimmy Beans, first-up on a testing surface, wasn’t quite up to the task.
Goodness was the shortest-priced of the trio and the one punters expected to get them square. The mare jumped a heavily backed $1.28 favourite and Williams gave her every conceivable chance, settling on speed and enjoying a soft run.
But unlike the market expected, she never fired a shot.
Turning for home, the favourite was under pressure and quickly beaten, eventually finishing well down the track. One assumes the Heavy 10 conditions were not to her liking, because there was little to fault in the ride.
It made for a frustrating afternoon for followers of the Williams-Freedman combination. Three rides, three beaten favourites or near-favourites and plenty of torn-up tickets.
Still, racing has a way of keeping everyone humble.
Williams remains one of Australia’s premier jockeys and the Freedman operation continues to churn out quality horses. Form slumps happen to every stable, even the elite ones, and history suggests this one won’t last long.
For punters, though, Sunday’s results were another reminder that reputation alone doesn’t cash tickets. What looked a straightforward Sunday collect on paper turned into a costly lesson in the realities of Heavy 10 country racing.
Beware The Hidden Trialler
If there’s one lesson punters keep learning, it’s that jump-out and trial results rarely tell the full story.
Lloyd Kennewell’s promising colt Mbube is the latest example.
On paper, there wasn’t much to get excited about. He finished fourth and fifth in his two lead-up jump-outs before making his raceday debut.
But jump-outs and trials are about far more than finishing positions, and Mbube was the clear standout in both pieces of work.
The colt moved like a Ferrari throughout each hit-out, with the key tell being how effortlessly he quickened when asked to improve. Without any real pressure from the rider, he was able to make significant late ground, suggesting there was plenty left under the bonnet.
Clearly the stable had an opinion of him and one hopes they managed to secure some of the early price before the rest of the market caught on.
Lloyd Kennewell looks to have a very smart colt on his hands and, given it has been a relatively even two-year-old season, I’m tipping this bloke can measure up at a pretty high level as the year unfolds.
Sandown Hillside Race 1 | Mbube
The 2YO colt blitzes them in the final furlong for a strong debut victory for @KennewellRacing 💥
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/3OFLJonI5X— Racing.com (@Racing) June 13, 2026
Synthetic season is upon us
The annual migration to the synthetic tracks begins this week, with Pakenham on Monday and Ballarat on Tuesday hosting the first all-weather meetings of the winter.
For punters, they’re a completely different beast to turf racing.
If last season – and recent jump-outs – are any guide, Pakenham should once again provide a fair and consistent racing surface. Ballarat, however, can be a different story altogether, with kickback often making life difficult for horses trying to make ground from the rear.
Momentum is king on synthetic tracks and horses caught chasing can quickly find themselves with too much to do.
It’s also the time of year when a handful of proven synthetic performers come into their own. Several have spent the autumn racing on wet tracks, quietly building fitness before returning to the surface they genuinely prefer.
The form guide might say they’re out of form. The synthetic record might tell a very different story.
Keep an eye out. The synthetic specialists are about to emerge from hibernation.
Oh, two additional nuggets:
- 2yo’s will continue to perform well vs older horses the next six weeks
- Tony and Calvin McEvoy will invariably dominate the Ballarat Synthetic.
Sun on their back pays dividends come spring
Sure, quality horses are lured to Queensland each winter by Group 1 racing and excellent prizemoney.
But one of the biggest advantages might simply be escaping the dreary southern winter.
Many of the horses that head north don’t just race in Queensland. They spell there too, enjoying warm temperatures, sunshine and pristine conditions while their southern counterparts are often rugged up in rain-soaked paddocks battling cold, wet weather.
Come September, the difference can be striking.
The Queensland winter horses often return with coats gleaming and looking the picture of health, while some of those emerging from southern paddocks can appear a touch woolly and in need of racing to bring them on.
It’s not just a theory either. A clear pattern has emerged in recent years.
The past three Melbourne Cup winners all spent part of their winter campaigns in Queensland. Three of the past five Caulfield Cup winners also headed north, while the Brisbane winter carnival has repeatedly proven an outstanding launching pad for elite three-year-olds.
The JJ Atkins in particular has become one of the strongest spring form references in the country.
Chris Waller won the Caulfield Guineas with both Press Statement and The Autumn Sun after they captured the JJ Atkins, while Autumn Boy also wintered in Queensland before claiming Guineas honours.
Oh, and a pretty handy Sandown Guineas winner in Sheza Alibi emerged from last year’s Queensland Carnival.
Waller may have another serious contender this year in Tron Bolt, who was dominant in Saturday’s JJ Atkins. In fact, the first three home – Tron Bolt, Cormier and Stormy Marco – all look capable of making their presence felt in Sydney and Melbourne during the spring.
The lesson for punters is a simple one.
When the spring carnivals roll around, pay close attention to the horses returning from Queensland campaigns. The form often stacks up, but so too does the physical appearance.
With the winter sun on their backs and plenty of miles already in the legs, they’re frequently in far better order than many realise – and their performances often reflect it.
Punters bash the bookies…
Speaking to a few bookies in the 24 hours following Stradbroke Day many reported getting bashed up by punters. One bookmaker describing it as the worst day since Melbourne Cup week.
The extra kicker being every man and their dog cleaning up on Sunday’s Socceroos win.
That said, I doubt punters will feel any sense of sympathy! It has been a grind the past few months and with the promise of a wet winter to come, the battle could be real.
Blackbookers
As a mainly off-broadway operator, I’ll leave you with a couple from the bush.
Seymour Thursday r8 Set Me Loose – city class horse who should come to turn in the coming weeks
Ballarat Friday r2 Azulita – Got too far back on debut but was strong to the line. Won’t be a maiden for long – 1400m next start ideal.
Bendigo Saturday r3 Angels Fury – Don’t think there was a 2yo in Victoria that trialled better than her but she failed on debut in a Blue Diamond lead-up. She was totally dominant on Saturday and should make a quality 3yo.
