Race 1
(8) Vintell looks a great E/W bet at $7. Started his career with Colin Scott and ran well on debut at Mornington. Has since switched to Ben Brisbourne’s stable and, for mine, has improved notably. Two jump-outs this time in have been excellent – he has covered the ground well and won the latest with plenty in hand. Looks good speed here – he should camp just behind the leaders and with even luck late can get over the top of them.
(11) Sweet Allure looks to have good talent and she can probably lead them here on debut. Started her career with Anthony and Sam Freedman but has since transferred to Matthew Smerdon. Her latest jump-out at St Arnaud was slick, up on speed, kicking away from her rivals. The query I have is her manners: she goes to the race with a barrier blanket, blindfold and earmuffs in the run – so she’s clearly not a straightforward filly. Can win, but want to see her do it on raceday first.
(9) Empress Rosa hasn’t been fully let go in jump-outs but has shown talent. Drawn well and the Magnus’ are generally good wet trackers as a rule.
(4) Ottolalaus ig going to press forward along with Sweet Allure. His latest jump-out was good on speed and he has gone around in some decent maidens across his first two campaigns, but he looks short enough at $4.50.
Suggested bet: At $7, Vintell looks a great EW 1×3 bet – probably the standout play on the card.
Race 2
(2) Fiorowngood was excellent first-up after 71 weeks on the sidelines at Geelong, settling back before charging home in a 1443m maiden with solid depth. His debut at Terang also had plenty of merit, making ground on a day that heavily favoured leaders in a race that has already produced multiple subsequent winners. He then overdid things in front at his only other start but stuck on well considering. On exposed form, he’s the clear horse to beat. The only slight query is whether he can flatten out second-up after such a long absence, but I still have him marked a deserving favourite.
(7) Justibella is the even-money favourite, but that quote looks too short. She resumes after 40 days between runs, steps from 1400m to a mile, and comes through what looked a fairly moderate Ballarat maiden, even if the first two put a margin on the rest. You never want to underestimate the Maher stable, but with those factors in play I can’t have her anywhere near the current market price.
Suggested bet: Backing Fiorowngood/Raggazone
Race 4
Looks good speed through (2) Epoch and (10) Adira River. A few others can go forward.
(6) Up And Under looks a great E/W bet at $10. If he can run up to the rating he produced over 2000m four starts back at Mornington, he will win this. He dropped back to a mile off a little freshen last start at Cranbourne and ran well, but this looks a bit of a set play to get back to 2000m on a seven-day back up. Backed up within a week three starts back at Sandown and whilst was beaten into seventh, still through there was merit to the run in what has proven a reasonable form race. Key thing here is he maps for the softest one you’ve seen: one out, one back, smoking the pipe off a good tempo.
Epoch is airborne. He has relished being ridden more positively his past few starts, and the only defeat in his past three was a luckless run at Werribee. Heavy track suits. Yendall suits. He’s the horse to beat.
Suggested bet: Backing Up And Under E/W, will also be having something small on Epoch.
Race 5
Meech jumps back aboard (7) Charming Deel for the first time since running second at the May Carnival. Her three runs since joining the Dabernig yard have been excellent and she only needs to hold that form to be right in the finish of this. With Meech back abord expect a really positive ride – she will either lead or sit outside (2) Like A Tiger. Not mad on the 40 days between runs, but she is a mare that can run well fresh and typical of the Dundeel’s she doesn’t look the biggest filly, so probably doesn’t take a huge amount of work.
(12) Fuwari interests. Having her first run for Andrew Bobbin, she has always shown good staying promise. Her fresh run last campaign at 1500m was super and today’s 1700m journey suits much better. Only had one soft jump-out, so fitness may be a concern, but she moved well in that piece of work.
(1) Astradeel is the scary runner. Got 63.5kg but was able to win with 61.5 during the Bool Carnival and he absolutely loves this track. However, I am happy to risk given he’s 50 days between runs off an average effort last start.
Suggested bet: Backing Charming Deel/Fuwari.
Race 7
Good speed with (6) Dynamite Dancer the likely leader, but (8) Frosty Night, (9) Hughie, (2) Moonraker all press forward. (7) Legacy Bel is airborne. Win first up at Sale was very good, Whilst there’s yet to be a winner come form that race, several horses have gone to town and run well (Soju, Nordic Strike, Walter Spur, Behaviour) – it’s a great form reference for this. She wasn’t beaten far at Sandown last start and now drops back from a BM70 to a BM62, albeit this is a handy 62. The knock is getting back up in the weights after carrying 52kg and 53kg, but gets Carleen Hefel aboard who knows her very well.
(12) Bella Angelica can run a race at massive odds. Beat a subsequent Morphettville maiden winner with a big gap back to third breaking her maiden first up before not handling the Ballarat Synthetic. She has jumped-out brilliantly between runs and maps for an ideal trail. Two runs here at Warrnambool have been good and like her back onto a heavy deck.
Think (6) Dynamite Dancer is potentially the best horse in the race and dropping back to 1100m (from 1200m) will suit. Saddle shifted a little last start which didn’t help Dean Yendall, but I still thought he failed to run out the 1243m. Has some pressure to contend with here but he will be in this a long way.
(5) Bazaar will appreciate the strong tempo and will be charging late. Gate one might be some concern for a backmarker come this stage of the day.
Suggested bet: Legacy Bel a great E/W bet at $7.50. Also having something on Bella Angelica at $41.
