The weather looks much kinder than it has in recent weeks, which should make for far more predictable racing across the metropolitan meetings.
That brings the focus back to the data, and this week there are several strong Barrier vs Historical Run Style angles worth following.
At Flemington, the rail goes out 10 metres and history says horses settling midfield from middle barriers enjoy a significant 16% edge.
Over in Sydney and Adelaide, the standout pattern is horses going forward from wide barriers, a profile that has consistently outperformed market expectations.
The trainer and jockey data is equally compelling. James McDonald returns at Rosehill and, remarkably, still owns an Actual-to-Expected (A2E) figure of 1.17, an extraordinary number given the weight of money that follows him. Zac Lloyd also continues to outperform the market, while Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott and Michael Freedman remain profitable stables to follow.
In Melbourne, Grahame Begg and Ted Nugent continue their excellent recent form, while Jabez Johnstone’s remarkable rise shows no signs of slowing, with another book of appealing rides this weekend.
Let’s find some winners.
Flemington
Race 1 – Nearco Frod
Nearco Frod appeals as the value play despite a competitive market. The McEvoy-trained import has thrived in his second Australian preparation and looks capable of bringing up a hat-trick. His closing 200-metre figures have been excellent, the speed map suggests a trouble-free run, and the stable continues to place him perfectly.
Race 2 – Rubare
Rubare shapes as one of the better bets of the day. Punting Form AI rates the 3yo filly at $2.76, while the market is currently offering around $4.20, creating a healthy overlay. The recent Adelaide run produced exceptional closing sectionals, including a blistering -12.0 last 600 metres, while the trainer and jockey combination couldn’t be in much better form.
Race 5 – Cherish Me
Cherish Me ticks plenty of boxes. The mare benefits from the 16% map advantage at Flemington, comes off a fast last-start performance and gains another boost through Jabez Johnstone’s 2kg claim. The speed map looks ideal, particularly with favourite Takeko likely to ensure a genuinely run race.
Race 7 – Star Patrol
Star Patrol stands out on the Punting Form database, leading the Top 4 Performers tally and rated significantly shorter by PF AI ($4.75) than the current market price of around $7. It’s a quality Group 3, but the data says the veteran represents genuine value.
Race 8 – Coeur Volante & Duchess Zou
Coeur Volante profiles as the major value runner, with ratings suggesting the current $17 should be much closer to $11. The mare also owns the fastest closing 200-metre benchmark in the field.
Duchess Zou is the other runner worth backing. The Maher-trained mare again teams with Jabez Johnstone, maps to enjoy a perfect trail behind Sass Appeal and produced the quickest final 600 metres last start. Both runners appeal as betting propositions in what shapes as one of the trickier races of the day.
Rosehill
Race 2 – Wayburn
Wayburn is much more than eye-catching silks. The four-year-old ranks number one for PF AI, Early Speed and Weight Class Price, while barrier 11 should actually allow Nash Rawiller to settle in an ideal position given the historical pattern favouring horses rolling forward from wider gates.
Race 5 – Anythink Goes
The market appears to have underestimated this runner at around $7. The latest performance rating was excellent, the Smith stable is in winning form and PF AI has the gelding considerably shorter. Despite now being an eight-year-old, there’s little to suggest the veteran has gone backwards this preparation.
Race 10 – Jarrito
Jarrito has been heavily backed but still appeals despite the market support. The Bjorn Baker-trained mare charged home impressively at Warwick Farm last start and maps to enjoy a soft run just behind the speed. If the price holds around the current quote, she’s still one of the stronger plays on the card.
Doomben
Race 3 – Galano
Galano looks over the odds at around $8.50. Taylor Marshall is riding with confidence, the Dunn-trained gelding performed well two weeks ago and the ratings suggest he’s ready to peak sixth-up this campaign.
Morphettville Parks
Race 2 – Intellectual
The market expects Intellectual and the favourite to dominate this race, but the value sits with Intellectual at around $4.60. The five-year-old impressed in a recent trial, owns the two fastest performances in the field by a clear margin and should relish the expected Soft 7 conditions.
Race 6 – Nextonis
The early market support looks justified. Nextonis was the quickest last start, profiles as a horse that performs particularly well fresh and is rated significantly shorter by PF AI than the current market. Everything points towards another bold first-up performance.
