Strong northerly winds of between 25/35km/h are expected on Saturday and will impose difficulty to front-runners, acting as a headwind toward the side of the track. That is particularly impactful for 1200,1100 and 1000-metre races run from the chute.
Travis Harrison Cup Day, typically held at Moonee Valley, has been relocated to the Caulfield Heath in the midst of The Valley’s reconstruction.
The day’s racing commences with the newly graduated three-year-olds over 1200 metres.
Commit was beaten by the very exciting, Cox Plate-nominated American Eagle at Sandown last start. He was restrained to the rear of the field and was well held, but closing quickly nonetheless. That particular race should prove to be a strong form reference moving forward, and it has already produced a winner, with the fourth horse, Crown Of Fire, crossing the border and winning at Canterbury.
Commit won at Sale previously and has evidently improved since. He had the pace to settle on speed that day, so perhaps he can settle further forward and just behind the speed in this. He should be favourite, and I believe there will be continued support for him until the gates open.
Race 2
Celtics is deserving of favouritism after two consecutive strong figures over 1400 metres at Caulfield’s outer track. I long thought he was better than rated, and he has now had the opportunity to prove so. He will map well behind what should be a good speed.
Will’s market for race two:
| Number | Horse | Will’s Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Ferrari | $41 |
| 2 | Oriental Smoke | $41 |
| 3 | Slane | $81 |
| 4 | Stay Silent | $16 |
| 5 | Princeofnottingham | $61 |
| 6 | Botanical Boy | $5.50 |
| 7 | Emmadella | $41 |
| 8 | Stonecoat | $81 |
| 9 | Zourain | $15 |
| 10 | Rasp | $46 |
| 11 | Celtics | $2.60 |
| 12 | I’ve Bean Tryin’ | $41 |
| 13 | Zebra Finch | $18 |
| 14 | Jewel Bay | $51 |
| 15 | Georgie Get Mad | $21 |
| 16 | Nicajon | $41 |
Zourain raced wide without cover into a strong headwind at Flemington in a race where the pace was fast. He can improve with a more economical run.
Race 7
There has been plenty asked of Savour The Dream in recent weeks, settling a long last on both occasions and being set an impossible task. He won comprehensively at Mornington previously, and if he’s able to recapture that level of form, he’s more than capable of winning this race. Ethan Brown is an excellent booking, and perhaps he will settle much further forward, which will be vital to his chances.
Angland is of similar interest, returning to the Caulfield Heath, where he has won previously, after racing wide without cover at Flemington last Saturday and into the headwind. He’s not without a chance either.
Will’s market for race seven:
| Number | Horse | Will’s Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Station One | $201 |
| 2 | Madero | $15 |
| 3 | Angland | $15 |
| 4 | Savour The Dream | $9.50 |
| 6 | Shiny New Deel | $14 |
| 7 | Black Peppermint | $61 |
| 8 | Perfect Ten | $6.50 |
| 9 | Red On Red | $31 |
| 10 | Oraqua | $8.50 |
| 11 | The Devil In Her | $21 |
| 12 | Censori | $15 |
| 13 | Zorro’s Flight | $6.50 |
| 14 | Dragoon | $61 |
| 15 | My Roca Fella | $51 |
| 16 | Autumnheat | $16 |
Autumn Heat, who is the fourth emergency and unlikely to gain a start, has been well supported early, and rightfully so. He was abysmal at Ballarat on the synthetic surface, but many horses are, and that run can be quickly forgotten. The engagement of Damian Lane is perhaps a sign of intent.
Race 9
The concluding race of the day is another of immense interest, with Currawood making his second appearance in Australia for Gavin Bedggood. He failed first-up, but was wide without cover on a heavy track in a race run at a brutal speed.
He has figures from Ireland that would render him more than competitive in this race and was stakes-placed on three occasions. The market expected a very high level of performance from him last start, and that can be used to suggest that he may be a $10 chance in this race.
He is a great bet at upwards of 20/1.
Will’s market for race nine:
| Number | Horse | Will’s Price |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Black Storm | $14 |
| 4 | He’ll Rip | $13 |
| 5 | Flying Valley | $6 |
| 6 | Nation’s Call | $27 |
| 7 | Prestige Forever | $31 |
| 8 | Changing Colours | $2.60 |
| 9 | Currawood | $9 |
| 10 | Just Too Fly | $201 |
| 11 | Lovelycut | $14 |
| 12 | Keane Enuff | $21 |
Summary of Will’s bets:
- Race 1 Commit
- Race 2 Celtics
- Race 7 Savour The Dream/Angland
- Race 10 Currawood
