Premier racing returns to Victoria with a vintage edition of the Memsie Stakes, fit for all superlatives. The absence of Sheza Alibi adds to the intrigue and makes it a more competitive contest. There are nine Group 1 winners in this field of twelve, and not one inside 7/2.
This is everything a Group 1 should be: a sterling battle of speed and endurance.
Memsie Stakes
Beiwacht will lead, his greatest asset, and should assume control after a furlong. Treasure The Moment will follow, and perhaps Mr Brightside will too, although he resumes after just shy of 300 days, so his connections may elect to race conservatively and build into his campaign.
Cosmic Crusader has drawn the visitors’ barrier, and William Pike must decide whether to roll forward or restrain the Western Australian to the rear of the field. If he does the latter, Cosmic Crusader cannot win.
My lean in the Memsie is the much-maligned Angel Capital. He has raced nine times since transferring to Chris Waller, and six of those have been over six furlongs or less. He simply does not turn his legs over quickly enough for that distance, and it pains me to see a horse this good campaigned so poorly.
He cannot stride any faster than ~2.38 times per second, which is typical of a miler. In three starts over seven furlongs, he was a certainty beaten in a Sir Rupert Clarke, beaten on terms by Jimmysstar in the zone in the C.F. Orr, and again, a heavily backed tragedy in the All Aged Stakes.
Having drawn barrier five, there is a chance that Ben Melham can hold a position by default. If he is in front of Jimmysstar and Cosmic Crusader, they will not beat him in a finish.
Jimmysstar is favourite, but he seemed to taper last preparation. It is good to see him resume over 1400 metres, as for a long time he shared the same problem as Angel Capital: he strides like a seven-furlong horse but was campaigned as a sprinter.
He was better in the All Aged and Kingford Smith, but overall was down on his best and quite considerably so. Perhaps he is not the same horse he once was, and I am interested in being against him on that basis.
Angel Capital and Beiwacht are an appealing pair to use to beat Jimmysstar and Cosmic Crusader, who head the market.
McNeil Stakes
The unbeaten American Eagle is all the talk in the McNeil Stakes after a terrific debut win at Sandown, beating Judas Tree and Commit, who have both represented the form well in recent weeks.
I certainly do not believe that six furlongs is his optimal distance.
He strides like a seven- and eight-furlong horse, and his breeding would suggest as much. Barrier one is an awful proposition; he does not possess enough early speed to lead and will have to sprint through a gap at some point in the straight.
The New Zealander is undoubtedly a sprinter, but I do wonder how good he actually is. I marked him $5.50, so there is no value in his current price.
Confederation was marginally held up and ran third in the Vain Stakes.
Of course, that was a poor renewal of the race, but so is this. He has always had a likeable profile: well supported on debut in the Canonbury, and then starting $6.00 on the exchange in the Silver Slipper, albeit both were weak editions.
He can roll forward under James McDonald, and despite being by Wootton Bassett, he strides like a sprinter. This is a poor field, and the best horse in it is a miler, so using his speed under the best jockey in the land may be a major advantage, one that makes him markedly more likely than a $12.00 chance.
In addition, Philip Island made significant improvement to win a maiden at Pakenham, running a time that suggests a race of this calibre is not as much of a rise in form as it may appear. He was well supported on debut in the Vobis Showdown, which was well represented in Group 1s in Sydney. He is obviously talented, but perhaps has not yet had the opportunity to show it.
The pair are an appealing duo to use against a few poorly favoured runners.
Suggested bets:
Memsie Stakes – Backing Beiwacht/Angel Capital
McNeil Stakes – Backing Philip Island/Confederation
