This Saturday, punters are treated to one of only two Australian Group 1 sprints over five furlongs on the calendar.
That is somewhat remarkable given the industry’s obsession with speed. Only the Lightning and Moir Stakes are run over this distance, which can be something of a novelty, given it is such an anaerobic rather than aerobic test.
There is a filly sitting atop this field of sprinters, which must be described as a moderate one aside from champion sprinter Giga Kick, who returns for a third tilt at The Everest after winning the race in 2022.
Natural Fling has raced only three times, but is a deserving favourite in my view and is a complete professional for her lack of experience.
She dominated the Quezette Stakes when resuming, running excellent time and winning by four lengths.
What appeals most about her as a favourite is that she races tractably and will be involved in the early speed, of which there does not appear to be much. Cavalry Girl and Bazaball Rewarded will burn forward, while Natural Fling can roll across and settle alongside them.
The concern is that she may not be ideally suited to 1000 metres. She appears likely to be better over six furlongs than five, but even so, she should enjoy most of the favours here, and I make her a $3.20 chance.
Giga Kick is clearly the best horse in the race, but he has never been quite as effective over 1000 metres. Since 2024, he has raced in the Concorde, Challenge and Lightning Stakes and has never started outside $5.00, yet has run within a range of 94 to 98. That will not win this.
He cannot quite keep up with the early pace and improves over six furlongs and into his target races. If he starts inside $5.00 again, he will be an easy runner to oppose despite his obvious talent.
My Gladiola was beaten by Tentyris in the Lightning Stakes earlier this year and has figures that make her an enticing option away from the favourite. She does not perform well on rain-affected ground, though, so if the forecast rain arrives, she becomes vulnerable or may even be scratched.
I expect Natural Fling to attract strong support and she is the runner I am most interested in backing.
Best Bet: R5 Pretty Baby
The best bet of the day is the South Australian filly Pretty Baby.
The form card may not read particularly impressively, with two consecutive BM66 wins, but she achieved them in extraordinary time.
At her latest start, she was at least 10 lengths from the leader before sustaining an exceptional speed from the 600 metres and winning comprehensively, with plenty in reserve.
Her latest figure, accounting for the 60.5kg impost, makes her a Thousand Guineas contender before even accounting for the fact that she will appreciate further and receives an astronomical jockey change, from Caitlin Tootal to Jamie Melham.
She is highly unfashionable, of course, and perhaps I am over-analysing the numbers, but I think this filly is special.
I think she will win the Thousand Guineas.
R1 Cignetti
I’m tipping something of a favourite’s day at Sandown, with Cignetti appealing at better than even money in the first race on the program.
Time is the primary reason for this bet, as it usually is. The early stages of Cignetti’s maiden win at Sandown were very fast, with Blake Shinn burning across from an outside draw through strong sectionals between the 1200 and 800 metres.
Shinn then elected to dramatically slow the pace from the 800 to the 400 metres before asking Cignetti to quicken again from the 400-metre mark to the post. Cignetti responded impressively.
There were big margins, and had the race been run more efficiently, the margin may have been even greater. Shinn should once again assume control and hold a significant positional advantage over Cignetti’s main dangers. I believe that will be the difference.
I make him an even-money chance, so anything better than that price represents a good bet.
R7 Evaporate
The So You Think Stakes is a set-weights-and-penalties contest in which Evaporate is favourably treated for a horse of his quality.
He typically improves from the first run of a preparation to the second, and I thought his performance in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes was excellent. He should race prominently, perhaps even leading, while Pinstriped, the horse best placed to beat him, is likely to settle towards the rear of the field.
Ten Commandments is much too short on what he has achieved recently.
There are levels to racing, and Evaporate is blatantly a much better racehorse.
Several factors point toward Evaporate starting odds-on, so anything better than even money represents value and is an appealing betting option.
Bets
R1 Cignetti
R5 Pretty Baby
R7 Evaporate
R8 Natural Fling/My Gladiola (if it’s a Soft 6 or better)
