Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Sandown.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced. Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played
Dave Pfundt’s assessment of how the track played:
Very strong 40-45kmh WNW baseline wind to start the day (gusts 50kmh+), decreasing to about a 30kmh base wind roughly around 1:30pm, which is between races 3 and 4.
So that’s a cross tailwind in the Chute/Straight and a very decent headwind for two thirds of the longer circle races (1500-1600m).
Very difficult meeting to assess. I had to adjust for stronger wind earlier in the card, and group the circle races into 3 x 1300m and the 3 x 1500/1600 races.
After doing this, the ratings made a lot more sense, but such a wind-affected meeting will require caution going forward.
Going wise, the track was officially a Slow 7 and I’d have to say that is about the right number. If we take the line that the 3 x 1300m races received about as much headwind as they did tailwind, we’d be looking at a track speed of 6.7, which just dips into the Slow 7 range (6.5 to 7.5).
Lanes wise, 8 of 24 place-getters found fence in run or outside leader (7 fence, 1 OL), but I’ve not counted My Gladiola/Extragalactic, as the last race was right down the middle of the track.
No leaders won on the day, but on pace was more friendly in the 2 x Chute races.
Going forward, I’m looking for horses who were unsuited by race shape and forgiving leaders.
Race 1: Lepolo announces Derby credentials
LD-S-8: -8L | LD-8-4: +0.8L | LD-4-F: +3.5L | WNR-4-F: +5.7L | WTS: 83.4 | WFA: 89.6
Moir Stakes Day began with the extravagantly striding Lepolo, who was much too good in what was a terribly slow, building run for Derby hopefuls. The winner was good; he was last for much of the race but was able to quicken and claim the lead within strides.
My major qualm with this race is that these are a collection of horses aiming to hone their ability to stay, practicing ahead of their culmination in the Derby. What does this do for young stayers? I am under no illusion that significant winds played their part on the day, but should they not be learning how to cope with difficulty, racing through adversity?
There is no doubt that Lepolo in particular will stay. He relaxes phenomenally well, turning his stride over incredibly slowly with a stride length in excess of eight metres. He will stay; there is no doubt, and he is made for the Derby, and perhaps further. These are tough, robust animals who can cope with enduring scenarios. Let them stay.
Glide and Ko Phangan actually raced rather quickly to the 1200 metres, faster than what is typical, but the pace dropped dramatically between the 1200 and 800 metres. Billy Egan and Glide covered the 1200-1000-metre section in 13.84 seconds… amusingly slow.
Lepolo was quite impressive in the concluding 600 metres and certainly announced himself as a Derby contender. He now sits atop the VRC Derby all-in market, which seems a little reactionary. I do not believe he will be favourite on Derby Day. There is plenty to unfold.
Cignetti was badly held up, and Blake Shinn was very much cautionary of the wind. The term “paralysis by over-analysis” comes to mind. I understand what he did, and to an extent agree with it, but what took place was very much predictable after 300 metres. He would not have beaten the winner, I am sure of that, but Cignetti was well fancied on the basis that he would lead and have positional advantages over Lepolo, who was easy to back at the death of betting.
Race 2: Bedggood and Stackhouse strike
LD-S-8: -1.5L | LD-8-4: -3.3L | LD-4-F: +4.4L | WNR-4-F: +5.7L | WTS: 89.2 | WFA: 90
Ocean Bay was able to race to a new career peak, racing on the quick turnaround for the first time.
The pace was moderate, and the winner had the best turn of foot over the last 400 metres after settling one-out, one-back following clever early positioning by Daniel Stackhouse. Perhaps this will be Ocean Bay’s best figure this campaign, as he was so well managed by Stackhouse and placed by Gavin Bedggood, third-up on the quick back-up on heavy ground. But who is to doubt Bedggood, who is the best trainer in Victoria at the moment.
I do not say that lightly, for what he has achieved with the stock he is given, and for him to so consistently improve second-hand horses from some of the state’s most notable stables is nothing short of remarkable.
This season, he has had 42 starts for 13 winners, striking at 31% with a median starting price of $11.85 on the exchange. That is in excess of three times what the market has expected in that time period.
Incredible.
Race 3: Behaviour picks up the pieces
LD-S-8: +1L | LD-8-4: +0.2L | LD-4-F: -4.8L | WNR-4-F: -1.8L | WTS: 92 | WFA: 88.9
It was Gavin Bedggood again, this time with Behaviour, who finished with a flurry to claim the leading pair in the shadows of the winning post.
The pace to the 600 metres is the best measurement in this case.
Mainmankash and Beast Mode, who must be two of the fastest horses in Australia over the first 400 metres of a race, raced two lengths faster than what is typical and were not able to sustain their pace after the early sections.
Behaviour essentially picked up the pieces thereafter, finishing rather slowly, but quick enough to reel in the leaders who were slowing much faster.
Terrific placement, great execution. It must be said that Behaviour will be increasingly hard to place as his official rating goes up. He does have the capability to race over 1100 metres, which is helpful when looking for a suitable race.
Race 4: Fundamental Nature the one to follow
LD-S-8: +0.7L | LD-8-4: -5.8L | LD-4-F: +2L | WNR-4-F: +3.3L | WTS: 90.1 | WFA: 88.7
Ivan’s Hero is as good as he has ever been as a seven-year-old, in awesome form and excellent to win on Saturday. Perhaps a little fortunate, nonetheless.
The early pace was good, with Queen Christine burning across to lead before slackening the speed. Ivan’s Hero eventually improved his position to settle outside of her. Between the 1000 and 400 metres, the pace was awfully slow and became a sprint to the finish. Ivan’s Hero was best placed relative to the pace and did just enough to stave off Fundamental Nature and Cruiserweight, who were finishing very quickly.
Fundamental Nature was ridden to terrible instructions and was outstanding to finish as close as he did. He should have won the race and must be well thought of at his next start. He is in career-best form and will peak over seven furlongs next start, third-up. I have plenty of interest in following him.
Cruiserweight continues to run to a similar number, so perhaps he is not as good as punters once thought. I am sure he will improve with a reset and can fulfil what has been expected of him in his next campaign.
Race 5: Pretty Baby stamps herself as a star
LD-S-8: +4.1L | LD-8-4: -3.1L | LD-4-F: +4.4L | WNR-4-F: +6L | WTS: 93.3 | WFA: 100.3
The Atlantic Jewel became a procession as the South Australian filly Pretty Baby was devastatingly good, even a little better than I had expected.
She was a phenomenal drifter, with many very eager to lay the strength of the South Australian form, culminating in a starting price of $6.74 on the exchange.
Jamie Melham gave the filly a beautiful ride. After predictably missing the start, to settle three pairs back and one off must be commended. Not that it would have mattered.
The early pace was fast, with Torture, Ghana’s Akan, Portinari and Grinzinger Heart all taking part in a skirmish for the early lead.
After a quick early section, Zahra and Brown elected to slacken the speed between the 800 and 400 metres, which allowed Pretty Baby and Melham to improve their position without having to quicken at all.
Pretty Baby blows them away in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes!@jamieleemelham pic.twitter.com/SoSlWd7ko1
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 5, 2026
The sprint went on upon reaching the 400 metres, and the race was soon over thereafter. A withering 10.64-second split between the four and two meant that this group of fillies could not live with Pretty Baby, who decimated the field with her sprint. She drew further and further away as the race went on, so there is no implication that she cannot continue to get better.
A mile is not a concern; she relaxes well, and if anything she may only improve for it. She will not be beaten in the Thousand Guineas, I do not think.
A superstar.
Race 6: Blind Raise puts himself in the Guineas picture
LD-S-8: +4.8L | LD-8-4: -4.6L | LD-4-F: +1.3L | WNR-4-F: +1.8L | WTS: 88.6 | WFA: 94.2
Blind Raise made a dashing return to racing in the McKenzie Stakes, settling prominently to a good speed and dismantling a decent group of colts and geldings.
Punters took great interest in him, mostly because of the perceived vulnerability of the early favourite, Closer To Free. Punters were disgusted with the Blue Diamond runner-up’s return in the Vain, where he was well backed himself before only managing fifth, and in terrible overall time. That left Blind Raise and Wolf Gap, and the latter was more than likely to be ridden quietly from an outside draw. As punters predicted, Blind Raise enjoyed a good run and ran to a new peak figure to win the McKenzie, and win it well.
For context, this is a better figure than American Eagle ran to win the McNeil, and is something of a slightly less than typical McKenzie winner. Rosberg won it with a rating of 90.5 in 2025, although on debut, Angel Capital won it with 96.4 in 2024 and Steparty won it with 96.5 in 2023.
Based on the form we are exposed to, he must be a leading chance in the Guineas, but there have been several fantastic maiden winners that may not need to improve much to leap this bar. Aemond, who won yesterday at Bendigo, comes to mind.
There is not a particular knock on him; it is just that the required level to keep winning these races will continue to go up, and I do not foresee a rating of 100 (+2-) in him, which is typically required to win the Guineas.
He will be a respectable $15.00 chance in the Guineas, in my view.
Race 7: Evaporate finds his right race
LD-S-8: -7.2L | LD-8-4: -1.5L | LD-4-F: +4.8L | WNR-4-F: +6.7L | WTS: 99.6 | WFA: 99.2
Evaporate settled further back than I certainly had hoped, especially after leading the P.B. Lawrence first-up. Shinn elected to settle midfield, behind Pinstriped, who in my view was his biggest danger, and went straight past him in the straight.
He is a terrific racehorse and very consistent. He typically races between a range of 98 and 101.5, and that was all that was needed on Saturday to win by a length and three-quarters.
He does not have the gear to win a Group 1, unfortunately, but he is a fantastic Group 2 racehorse. He had not won in just shy of a year because he had been placed in races he could not win. Not to say he was poorly placed, he has an official rating that makes it difficult to run in lesser races. But because of the nature of Set Weights and Penalties, he was beautifully placed by connections and he duly won well.
Zambardo was the punters’ fancy, firming from $8.00 into a starting price of $4.40 on the exchange. Despite relentless backing, he was ridden terribly conservatively, settling a long last in a race where the pace was moderate. He improved his position, finishing very quickly to run third, and is in great form to win something this campaign. What? I am not sure, but wherever he runs, he will run well.
His second to Via Sistina in the Champions Stakes lives on, and if he repeats that figure somewhere, he can win anything that lacks a genuine Group 1 horse.
The Might and Power, formerly the Caulfield Stakes, is not typically very strong, and the stable won it last year with Globe, so perhaps that is where he is headed. It is a race he can certainly win.
Race 8: My Gladiola lands her Group 1
LD-S-8: -0.3L | LD-8-4: -1.7L | LD-4-F: +1.8L | WNR-4-F: +3.4L | WTS: 101.7 | WFA: 101.8
A fantastic renewal of the Moir Stakes gave My Gladiola her first Group 1 success, wearing down Cavalry Girl, who was excellent in defeat.
Somewhat predictably, the race was dominated by those able to settle prominently. A misconception at Sandown Hillside is that because the straight is long, it gives backmarkers their chance to reel in the leaders. The topography of the track plays a significant role in why that is not the case, because of the downhill section and the fact there is not a mad rush to the first bend. Runners that settled where Generosity, Giga Kick and especially Point Barrow did had no chance when the pace was controlled, like it was on Saturday.
Returning to the winner, she was excellent. She very much returned a similar figure to that she did when beaten by Tentyris in the Lightning Stakes earlier this year, perhaps slightly better. I have made the point previously that her failures have been over six furlongs, and her best have been over 1000 and 1100 metres, so a tilt in the UK is a very smart one, because the Australian calendar does not cater to her strengths, as all of our sprinting weight-for-age races are over six furlongs.
Where to now? The obvious option is the Manikato, in which she will have a fantastic chance, but it is a race in which she may be significantly more vulnerable.
Cavalry Girl was brilliant, but unfortunately came up short. This was her best shot at winning a Group 1. The Caulfield Stakes is a great option for her, returning to Group 2 level, and one that she will almost certainly be favourite for.
The favourite, Natural Fling, was excellent in defeat and lost no admirers, racing to a new peak on Saturday. She was forecast to a rating of 103.4, which in retrospect seems optimistic. I do believe that she will be better over 1200 metres, so she can continue to improve.
Giga Kick was kept safe by punters. He was never going to be as soft as I thought he should have been because of his obvious talent, but again, he does not possess the pace to be competitive in 1000-metre races. He was fine; there is no need to be worried about him, and he can be well thought of in the Manikato, which is his target, to my knowledge.
Point Barrow is another who was suspect over five furlongs but made an excellent return despite being beaten by five lengths. I will be forecasting a new peak for her in the Manikato, provided that is where she runs. She will more than likely race again before the Manikato, so she may be backable wherever that is, too.
Extragalactic finished in the quickest concluding quarter-mile of the day, and did it in what could be considered inferior ground. This is a new best for her, so she has improved with age.
To me, she and Point Barrow are very similar runners, and two that I will be interested in come Manikato Day, perhaps. She does seem a little more well fancied by the general punter, so maybe I will lean in favour of Point Barrow, because I do not believe there to be much separating their talents.
