Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Caulfield.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced.
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played
Dave Pfundt’s assessment of how the track played:
Winds 30kmh+ NNW to start, easing to 15-20kmh Westerly later in the day. The first two races did seem to be wind affected more than the rest of the card. Circle races saw 10 of 24 place-getters finding the fence in run or OSL (9, 1). Chute races 5/6, making 15/30 total. Hard to stamp a meeting-wide pattern off those numbers, but I do feel the pattern changed later in the day as the inside deteriorated.
Races 1 to 5, nothing won from outside the top five at the 800m and then Races 6-10 nothing won from inside the top five at the 800m. Lanes wise, Races 1-5, my estimate of the winner lanes on the turn – 4, 1, 1, 1, 2. Races 6-10, winner lanes on the turn were 6, 6, 6, 6, 6.
I’m calling it two patterns across the meeting. Early in the card, I’ll be forgiving of back/wide runs and later in the card, I’ll be forgiving of those on the inside of the field.
The track debacle
Plenty to discuss in this week’s Weekend at Bot’s column, headlined by two excellent Group 1 features that lived up to their billing, albeit won by familiar connections: Chris Waller and Ben Melham combining for both the Underwood and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes for Yulong, and Ozzie Kheir and Brae Sokolski.
Racing was delayed before the first race in what could only be described as an absolute shambles. Only racing could hinder itself so badly. It is remarkable, but at this point it ceases to amaze.
The issue emerged approximately 45 minutes before the scheduled start time, prompting the inside rail to be moved from the seven- to 11-metre position to avoid loose, large clods from the 350-metre mark to the winning post.
The MRC Chairman went on broadcast to remind punters that Caulfield has absorbed an influx of meetings since the closure of Moonee Valley, except that’s not true. Only one has been transferred to the outer track.
Need I remind you that this was a dual Group 1 day. Racing.
Race 1
LD-S-8: +4.5L | LD-8-4: -2L | LD-4-F: -5.8L | WNR-4-F: -0.4L | WTS: 87.9 | WFA: 88.4
Emperor Tzu continued Ciaron Maher’s stellar recent form, and his own.
He has won three consecutive races, all partnered by star apprentice Jabez Johnstone.
Jenni Multabella set an honest early pace and, importantly, increased the speed between the 1200- and 800-metre marks, creating separation before they swung for home.
Emperor Tzu was perfectly positioned relative to the pace and eventually overhauled the Lloyd Kennewell-trained ‘Jenni’ in the latter stages of the straight, making it her third consecutive second placing. Frustrating for connections, I am sure.
There were considerable margins spreading first through to fifth, but that’s not to say that this is particularly strong form. Emperor Tzu hasn’t improved, he is just well managed and racing consistently well.
The nature of the pace and positioning of those toward the rear of the field made it impossible for backmarkers to figure in the finish.
Race 2
LD-S-8: +7.9L | LD-8-4: -5.7L | LD-4-F: -6.1L | WNR-4-F: -6.1L | WTS: 75.2 | WFA: 83.6
The Classics Preview for Derby and Oaks hopefuls was dire, a race that would not look out of place at Moe on a Tuesday afternoon.
The early pace was searching, which will benefit this group, as they should be learning to stay, but ultimately exposed the field as an atrocious lot. Had there been an Oaks or Derby contender, they would have won by a furlong. None did; they finished in a bunch.
I notice Frank Whisper is now $11.00 to win the Derby with TAB after appearing to finish quickly. That is not the case; he could not keep up and was simply slowing less than the others.
There was a maiden at Sale on the 13th of September that will carry more Derby implications than this. The winner, Mister Whiskers, is a half-brother to Arcora (second last year), will certainly stay a mile and a half, and looks far more talented. If Stormy Marco misses the Derby in favour of the Spring Champion, Mister Whiskers is the top seed in my view.
Race 3
LD-S-8: -0.9L | LD-8-4: +3.3L | LD-4-F: -3L | WNR-4-F: +1.6L | WTS: 93.4 | WFA: 91.8
Pallaton never went around another runner to win first-up, posting a figure ultimately short of his best, nonetheless, good enough to win.
The early pace through the first 100 metres was quite slow; riders elected to find their positions rather than hustle for the lead. That left Stokke and Damian Lane burning across from the outer barrier with no apparent pressure for the lead. Stokke’s 1000- to 400-metre section was scintillating, but he could not sustain such speed and quickly gave way. That left runners in midfield positions very well placed, none more so than Pallaton, who never had to leave the rail.
Pallaton can continue to improve; he typically improves with racing, and this was his best first-up performance. He did have everything in his favour, though, and in stronger races he might not be so well placed.
Ndola was marginally held up and probably should have won the race. He finished well and can return to his preferred stomping ground, Flemington, and race well down the straight.
Race 4
LD-S-8: +0.8L | LD-8-4: -1.7L | LD-4-F: +2.5L | WNR-4-F: +2.5L | WTS: 89.1 | WFA: 94.5
Icelady rendered herself a major Thousand Guineas contender with a brilliant maiden-winning run in the Prelude.
The early pace was rather quick, with Mystic Realm, Tolaga Bay, Rebel Tuesday, Saintly Dancer and Icelady all vying for the lead. Once positions were established after the first quarter-mile, the pace was slackened, allowing the eventual quinella a breather before they quickened again upon reaching the 600-metre mark.
Icelady was well supported throughout the week. She was as big as $18.00 for a short time earlier in the week before eventually starting $7.80 on the exchange. She was beaten first-up by Over Excited, who represented the form well in the Cap D’Antibes last Saturday at Flemington.
She is entitled to improve; she was only second-up on Saturday and this was a new, big peak. She is certainly competitive in the Thousand Guineas, but remains a notch behind Pretty Baby, who beat Profiligate and Portinari with contempt in the Atlantic Jewel earlier this month.
Profiligate and Portinari, who fought over favoritism pre-race, were in terrible positions relative to the pace and made a terrific, sustained finish over the last 400 metres. Both are more than capable of making up the margin to the winner, and their starting prices can be taken literally.
These fillies will of course be competitive in the Thousand Guineas, but are still behind the raging favourite, Pretty Baby.
Race 5
LD-S-8: +2.3L | LD-8-4: +0.2L | LD-4-F: +2.2L | WNR-4-F: +2.5L | WTS: 93 | WFA: 98
The Caulfield Guineas became all the more interesting as Blind Raise dominated the Prelude, winning under a hold and by two and three-quarter lengths.
Blind Raise raced to a new career best, returning a figure of 98, with the impression that there may be plenty left to be uncovered.
The pace was reasonably strong in the opening quarter-mile. Ethan Brown, perhaps conscious that he and Wolf Gap could not win if he remained complacent, took off from last at the 800-metre mark to take up the lead before turning for home. It was an enormous mid-race move off an already reasonably strong pace, and he was then comfortably handled by Blind Raise, who maintained his pace through the middle section and quickened at the 400 metres.
Blind Raise CRUISES away with the Caulfield Guineas Prelude 😲
He’s four from five and on his way to the big one!@blake_shinn @busuttin pic.twitter.com/5SP43L5Thi
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 19, 2026
In truth, this was a race in one, and in the Caulfield Guineas, none of the beaten runners will be competitive.
There is talk that Blind Raise will take his place in the Cox Plate provided he runs well in the Guineas, and that is not ridiculous at all. If he can continue to improve in the Guineas, there is no reason he cannot improve again over 2000 metres. He is certainly bred to race over a mile and a quarter. Ace High won the Derby, and his granddam, Seachange, was a champion sprinter-miler in New Zealand, and of course also the granddam of Storm Boy. He will certainly stay a mile and a quarter if his stride is anything to go by, and of course it is.
Race 6
LD-S-8: -1.4L | LD-8-4: +0.9L | LD-4-F: +1.1L | WNR-4-F: +4.8L | WTS: 100.4 | WFA: 100.8
Point Barrow won a terrific edition of the How Now Stakes, running a career-best figure of 100.8 to topple Bridal Waltz, who was well punted into odds-on pre-race.
Bridal Waltz was very much the punters’ pick, backed off the boards on the basis that she would be given an easy lead and enjoy positional advantage over Custom and Point Barrow. They were right, and she was afforded every chance to win, at least through the early stages of the race. That changed in the straight, in what has been described as a “cocky ride” by punters and even Peter Moody.
Melham was motionless until he realised that Point Barrow had idled up alongside him at the furlong pole, and by then it was too late. There may be truth to the notion that she was poorly ridden, but would she have beaten the eventual winner? Probably not.
Point Barrow was dynamic and is slowly cluing onto racing. She is still slow to begin and will always give leaders an advantage due to her racing pattern, but she makes up for it in ability. She sustained exceptional speed from the 800-metre mark and won running away.
She is a good chance in the Champions Sprint, provided she takes her place. There is improvement in her, and the Champions Sprint may not be particularly strong this year, with The Everest and other races in Sydney drawing away the chance of a good field. If she is able to run to a figure of 101.5-102.5 on Champions Day, which she is capable of, that may be the required winning figure. She is currently $15.00 with TAB, which is no value, unfortunately.
Race 7
LD-S-8: +2L | LD-8-4: +1.7L | LD-4-F: -1.3L | WNR-4-F: +1.1L | WTS: 104.3 | WFA: 104.3
In the first Group 1 race of the day, the Underwood Stakes, it was Birdman who reigned supreme with a new career-best and a dominant winning margin over the well-supported Western Australian, Cosmic Crusader.
The pace was sub-standard up to the 1200-metre mark, but then dramatically increased between 1200 and 600 metres, which is where Shinn asked Lindermann to quicken. Only Birdman could cope with the sustained effort from the six-furlong point, and he drew away from the field to win by a length and three-quarters, running the concluding 1000 metres three lengths quicker than Buckaroo, who was second fastest from that point.
He was utterly dominant, running to a figure of 104.3, with the impression that there is improvement to come. He was only second-up and will be targeted toward the Cox Plate.
If the pace is forecast to be moderate to slow, he is more than capable of beating Delius and Aeliana for speed and should be considered a very live chance in the weight-for-age championship of Australasia.
Cosmic Crusader very much ran in line with his form and is no better than what he produced on Saturday. Interestingly, the market has projected him to much higher levels in the Memsie and now in the Underwood, but perhaps the notion that he is better than what he has achieved has been proven untrue. He was beaten on terms, he stayed 1800 metres well, and there were no obvious excuses; he was given a brilliant ride by Pike. The chance to win a Group 1 with him in the East is now void, and they should return to the West with him now.
Lindermann was terrible, and there is a common thought that he does not perform racing anti-clockwise. I am not sure whether I believe that, but perhaps it does not matter, as it is likely that he will not be seen in Victoria for the remainder of his campaign, and for someone who bets solely in Melbourne, such as myself, he becomes rather irrelevant at this point.
Buckaroo was serviceable from the rear of the field. He will be outclassed in the Cox Plate and perhaps his rating is too high to compete in the Caulfield Cup. He can run well in a Cox Plate without winning.
Kingswood was quite good too, with an eye to the Caulfield Cup later in the spring. Gavin Bedggood will have to weigh up whether he takes his place in the Turnbull or the Might and Power as his lead-in run.
Race 8
LD-S-8: -6.9L | LD-8-4: +0.6L | LD-4-F: -0.3L | WNR-4-F: +2.9L | WTS: 98.2 | WFA: 95
The Naturalism Stakes, won by Half Yours last year en route to his Caulfield and Melbourne Cup double, was won by the hyper-progressive Zahrann.
Is this the win of a Caulfield Cup winner in waiting? Maybe. I notice he is currently favourite, which seems optimistic.
The pace was slow through the first 1000 metres; they raced slightly quicker than six lengths slower than par to that point, then increased the pace from there. Zahrann’s ride was executed perfectly by Brown, who had him ideally positioned relative to the pace.
ZAHRANN IS INTO THE CAULFIELD CUP 🏆
He breaks through in Australia at the perfect time in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes!@Brown_ethan8 @Cmaherracing pic.twitter.com/8Eo1Ch9Cvi
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 19, 2026
I am at a crossroads with this race, as it has not rated quite as well as the current all-in odds might reflect. He does not deserve to be favourite in the Caulfield Cup, but he is spiralling upwards and, of course, holds a starting price in the Irish Champion Stakes that would render him a certainty in the Caulfield Cup.
I too have some qualms over a mile and a half with him. I am not entirely sold on the thought that he will stay in a relentless test of endurance over 2400 metres, so he could be a runner to oppose if he does run favourite in the Caulfield Cup.
Saint George was excellent, but he is similar to Zahrann in that he strides as if a mile-and-a-quarter horse and has been somewhat left wanting over distances beyond his optimal range.
Stride is just part of the puzzle, and I treat it that way; I am in no way suggesting he is a certainty not to stay, but it is a worry I have, and a loose end that could be used to significantly oppose him with if he is well fancied on Cup Day.
An interesting conundrum, but one I am very excited to see play out.
Zakouma was great; he is on track to run well in the Melbourne Cup. He might not have the class to win the great race, but he will surely do his best.
There was a glimmer of light in Soulcombe’s effort too. The 2600-metre Queen Elizabeth Stakes on Stakes Day, a race he has won previously, may well be on his radar.
Race 9
LD-S-8: -0.2L | LD-8-4: +4.1L | LD-4-F: -0.2L | WNR-4-F: +4.7L | WTS: 105.5 | WFA: 103.3
In what could only be described as euphoria, Angel Capital tore down Sepals, Regal Award and Lady Shenandoah in the straight to win the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, his first Group 1 win in his ninth attempt.
The pace was even through the first section of the race, with Regal Award hitting the 800-metre mark 0.2 lengths behind par. Neindorf then elected to increase the pace quite substantially, and the race was on.
The field strung out, many chasing from a long way out, and only Angel Capital could cope with the pace. He finished 10.2 lengths faster than par from the 800-metre point, and did so with sustained velocity. He was fastest between the 400 and 200 of the meeting, and eighth fastest from the 200 to the post.
He did everything the market had expected of him previously on Saturday. He had his day, and he proved that he is this good. It took some time, but for those who had faith, they were duly rewarded.
For all of that, and his strength to and through the line, he is more than likely to be shuttled across the border to race the beast from the East. After all that, now it is blatantly obvious that he indeed needs every part of seven furlongs and perhaps further, connections are electing to race Ka Ying Rising in The Everest. Remarkable.
There will be an idea floated that because the pace will be fast, he will get his chance. No, that is not how it works. That works under the pretence that the leaders will be coming back to him while he is sustaining his gallop. I can promise you, Ka Ying Rising ain’t going to be coming back to the field.
He is desperate for a mile. Unequivocally the most frustratingly campaigned horse in my time following racing.
Sepals was as good as ever first-up and is mightily well placed to run well in the Toorak.
Regal Award ran to his peak on Saturday and did race a little keenly, so perhaps there is improvement in him yet. He is very much a project horse, much like Angel Capital, and will win a big race one day.
Lady Shenandoah hit her mark; she is a great mare. Consistent as ever, she was just beaten by a few better.
Feroce, Sabaj, Von Hauke and Sun God are all in good order and in play in the Toorak.
Tom Kitten cut the corner but sustained good speed. He is looking for further at this stage. He may be weighted out of the Toorak if they go that way with him, but he is in good order nonetheless.
Race 10
LD-S-8: -4.1L | LD-8-4: -3.9L | LD-4-F: +2.5L | WNR-4-F: +5.5L | WTS: 94.8 | WFA: 93.3
Fiorenot won a terribly slowly run affair in the culminating race, finishing in some scintillating late sectionals.
He is a horse that will improve over more ground, so winning this is only a bonus. The first five across the line are all in great order and can be followed into future races.
In particular, Savoyard, who was firm in betting at just start four, stepped from 1100 to 1400 metres with a 35-day break between runs. He can be peaking third-up.
