Moving day: Who went forward and who went backwards?
Moving day at Flemington delivered some big margins, especially early.
The southerly was at their tail around the home bend, helping on-pace runners in circle races. That suited horses like Saintly Dancer, while the heavily backed Miss Waititi saved every inch of ground in the Edward Manifold, which was also the best going in circle races, hard up against the rail.
The Danehill Stakes was a highlight, with two quality three-year-olds fighting out the finish. The Next Episode won this round, surging late, but Natural Fling lost no admirers doing the donkey work on speed, while Doubt Time was excellent late – doubt he can beat the first two in a Coolmore, but he’s got talent.
Mr Monaco won his way into the Melbourne Cup, helped by a brilliant Jabez Johnstone ride in the Bart Cummings, and hopefully connections stick with Jabez on the first Tuesday in November. He’s earned his crack at the big time.
Then came the Turnbull, where Willie Pike silenced the speed mappers and Cosmic Crusader proved he’s every bit a 2000m horse. He still hasn’t been tested in a genuinely fast-run 2000m, and I reckon he’d be a terrific Caulfield Cup chance, possibly on the way to the Cox Plate.
Surely connections are thinking long and hard about it, and hopefully Chris Waller is doing the same with Aeliana, because she looks absolutely ready for 2400m.
Meanwhile, the jury is well and truly out on Sir Delius. He was plain again, following a moderate return in the Makybe Diva, and I was staggered to see people potting Craig Williams for the ride. The leader he was chasing beat him home by nearly two lengths. Sometimes it isn’t the ride.
Caulfield Cup favourite Zahrann was also very plain and certainly won’t want a wet track in a fortnight. For mine, if they went there, Aeliana and Cosmic Crusader would be first and second favourite for the Caulfield Cup. If Zahrann is the benchmark, 56.5kg and 56kg won’t slow them down.
Meanwhile, early in the day Cindy Alderson took the covers off a smart on in Hankee Alpha. This mare had been riddled with bad luck and plagued by poor manners when plying her craft in New Zealand – her record really should be much better than it is. Trials suggested she had settled into her new life at Cranbourne with aplomb and not only did she belt her rivals, she ran blistering time in the process.
She looks every bit a Stakes class filly!
Flemington Race 2 | Hankee Alpha
A dominant start Down Under! 🇦🇺💨 @CWilliamsJockey guides the 5YO mare to an ultra-impressive victory 🔥
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy pic.twitter.com/fuEMFYWXvK— Racing.com (@Racing) October 3, 2026
Melham bloody lucky
Ben Melham’s ride on Skybird was the ride of the day, right up until about 15 metres from home.
The best ground in the straight was clearly towards the outside, which made barrier two sticky for a mare who usually settles back. Watch Melham from the moment the gates open: he had eyes only for those outside lanes and made several decisive moves to get there.
Once Skybird found clear air, it was a case of how far. She’d been heavily backed and punters were sitting pretty, until Melham inexplicably throttled her down over the final 15 metres.
Skybird won by the narrowest of margins, and Melham may only have been saved because Austin Galati, aboard runner-up Smooth Chino, seemingly misjudged the post himself.
SKYBIRD…JUST 😱
HOW IS THE BLOOD PRESSURE AFTER THAT?! pic.twitter.com/LaEq4bmwYW
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 3, 2026
Trainer Mitch Freedman summed it up: “I think we’re pretty lucky that the visiting rider probably mistimed the winning post here, otherwise he might have got over the top of us.”
Punters got paid, but Melham came perilously close to turning the ride of the day into one of the great howlers, and to booking himself a long holiday heading into the richest part of the calendar.
Melham was fined $2,000 and Galati $1,000. A very expensive final 15 metres.
Flemington: the eighth wonder of the world
We’ve seen recently how much a poor racetrack can let the industry down. On Saturday, Flemington showed what a good one can do.
Around 71mm of rain fell in the lead-up to Turnbull Stakes Day, plenty of it on race morning, and there was genuine doubt about whether we’d get through the meeting. We raced, the track was upgraded to a Heavy 8, and by late in the day I reckon it was racing in the Soft range. After 10 races it still wasn’t chopped up.
The VRC has made some mixed investments over the past 20 years, but it has absolutely nailed the track. Liam O’Keeffe has the best equipment and the biggest team at his disposal, and he makes the most of them. I doubt many, if any, Victorian tracks would have raced on Saturday after that much rain.
Flemington is comfortably the highest-turnover track in the country, and that’s because punters trust it.
Too many tracks, not enough good ones
That leads to a bigger point: Victoria has too many tracks.
Quality racetracks are income-generating assets that build punter confidence and drive turnover. Poor surfaces do the opposite. It’s nice having tracks dotted across country towns, and Melbourne will again have six metropolitan venues once Moonee Valley returns, but we can’t confuse quantity with quality.
Racing Victoria’s policy of aiming to start meetings on a Good 4, with some tracks seemingly happier around a Soft 5, has also made consistent surfaces harder to prepare.
When racing needs to grow turnover and profitability, should we keep spreading money, staff and resources across so many tracks? Or would the industry be better served by fewer tracks, more investment and consistently better surfaces?
Stop hiding Pakenham Synthetic
Then there’s Pakenham Synthetic, where the jungle drums are beating that the surface could be turned into grass at the end of its current life.
That would be madness.
Racing Victoria has scheduled just eight meetings on the synthetic this season, despite it being one of the fairest and most reliable surfaces in the country. Look at Monday’s meeting, transferred from Sale before acceptances: nine races, 128 acceptors and barely a scratching so far.
The demand is there, so I’d go the other way and make Pakenham Synthetic a showcase track through winter and in marginal weather.
Stop hiding it on Mondays. Race on a Thursday or Friday in a better wagering slot, program 10 races where demand allows, and outside daylight saving run the last three or four under lights, when people actually have a chance to watch and bet.
Build a ‘Knock-Off Quaddie’ around it and turn it into a product, instead of somewhere we race only when the weather causes problems elsewhere.
The surface already draws strong fields despite lower prizemoney and a Monday timeslot. We’ve spent the money on the lights. Use them.
