Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Caulfield.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced.
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played
David Pfundt (Form King):
“10mm of rain on race morning, but the big story was the 46mm that fell on Friday. All in all, the track has come up much better than forecasted. Officially a Heavy 10, upgraded to a 9 after R4, upgraded to an 8 after R6. In reality, it was a Slow 6 from the outset and stayed there with great consistency in the times throughout the meeting. Southerly to SSE winds 20-25kmh, increasing to 25-30kmh through the card. 4
Straight races – All winners bar Race 1 (unraced 2YOs where the running rail helps) came down the outside, sheltered from the Southerly.
Circle races were more on-pace dominated – nothing won from further back than 6th at the 400m (7th at the 800m) on the circle races. With the wind direction, it was assisting leaders at the time when the chasers needed to make ground. Lanes were fair across, but as mentioned, you wanted cover from the wind in the Straight races. Overall, a nice and fair track for a 9m rail, I thought, and the surface was exceptional given the rain.”
Race 2 | LD-S-8: +3.2L | LD-8-4: +3.6L | LD-4-F: -0.2L | WNR-4-F: -0.5L | WTS: 95 | WFA: 93.6
Making her Australian debut, Hankee Alpha took no time in getting off the mark, doing so by six lengths.
The pace was fast early; Naval Academy, Rue De Royale, and Queen Christine showed early speed and made the pace, racing three lengths faster than par for the first quarter-mile. Hankee Alpha, who stayed clear of any early-speed battle, moved into the race handsomely between the 800 and 400 metres and was the only runner to finish quicker than par over the last two furlongs. This was a show of strength rather than speed. The pace was good, and she revelled in the conditions, sustaining her speed like no other could.
With a figure of 93.6, she’s certainly much better than this grade and would be capable of measuring up in black-type races in the future.
She won’t be missed, though. This was a fast time, and she won by six lengths. There won’t be much value in her odds next start.
This is very much a new peak for Hankee Alpha, and I’d be wary of her holding this form next start. Of course she can, but these were unique conditions, and perhaps under different circumstances she won’t perform so well.
Race 3 | LD-S-8: -1.6L | LD-8-4: +1.4L | LD-4-F: -0.6L | WNR-4-F: +1.5L | WTS: 84.4 | WFA: 89.6
There’s a new Oaks favourite, and I suppose rightly so, as Miss Waititi cut loose and won the Super Impose.
Miss Waititi had two previous race starts, and both had been in races run at a pedestrian pace. She very much appreciated a more thorough pace and racing over further. Her cadence is optimal for a mile and a half, there’s no question about her over the Oaks distance. She will stay all day long. She’s only raced three times, so it’s difficult to put a ceiling on her, but she’s quite good, and a decent favourite for the time being. Will she be favourite on Oaks Day? Perhaps, but it is probable that a better filly may emerge in the coming weeks. With a figure of 89.6, she will need to improve to justify her position as favourite, but in an Oaks, she will stay as well as anything, and that’s half the battle.
Vallice increased his velocity exponentially between the 800 and 400 metres. He was ridden inefficiently, and will improve next start. I notice that he is now second pick in the Derby. He’ll be an excellent chance in the Vase, but I will bet that he will not stay a mile and a half. He is a little too quick for the Derby.
Race 4 | LD-S-8: +2.2L | LD-8-4: +0.4L | LD-4-F: +0.1L | WNR-4-F: +0.1L | WTS: 89.6 | WFA: 95
The Edward Manifold has been won by some highly talented fillies through time, but none have recorded a bigger winning margin than what Saintly Dancer did on Saturday.
For a win so dominant, the rating does not quite reflect the visual, and she still falls in line behind Regal Ambition and Pretty Baby. The conditions had a major effect on the winning margins across the day; it was difficult racing, and she coped with it far better than any other.
She made the pace under Brown, and it was frantic over the first 600 metres. It then slowed quite drastically between the 1000 and 600 metres before increasing again as they sprinted for home.
Joely was terrific from the rear of the field. Perhaps she is being prepared for an Oaks, she would not look out of place toward the front end of the market.
Race 5 | LD-S-8: +4.7L | LD-8-4: +2.7L | LD-4-F: -6.9L | WNR-4-F: -6.2L | WTS: 95.5 | WFA: 94
The Rose Of Kingston Stakes was set alight from the outset by Tennessee Bound. Stylish rolled across from an outer draw and settled at her girth, outside of the lead. The pace was fast; the opening quarter-mile was three lengths quicker than par, and then incrementally increased up until the 400-metre mark. The pace disappeared thereafter; it could not be sustained, but Stylish had already established a winning lead.
Cilacap finished in the fastest concluding section of the race in 12.54, which is abysmally slow, such was the early pace.
Stylish is in the form of her life. 96.3, 95.2, 95.5 are her last three ratings. There are an abundance of seven- and eight-furlong races for mares over the coming weeks; it’s seemingly the only group of mares Australian racing caters to.
Gold Coast Belle was backed off the boards once more, but to no avail again. She’s quite limited, and the prospect of her being far better than rated, as the market has forecast for her, is now void, at least this campaign. She can regroup with a spell and is by no means exposed, but she’s not a Group 1 filly. She’s a Group 3 and Group 2 mare.
Cilacap is a very talented mare and will be best over a mile. She’s been stretched to a mile and a quarter and ran well, so perhaps that opens options for her too.
Race 6 | LD-S-8: -1.3L | LD-8-4: -2L | LD-4-F: +2.1L | WNR-4-F: +4.9L | WTS: 95.2 | WFA: 99.5
The Coolmore Stakes lost its favourite in the early hours of Saturday but gained a new one in The Next Episode after the Danehill Stakes.
To the 600-metre mark, the pace was relatively sedate. Natural Fling led at a controlled speed, slower than par. Lane didn’t utilise the filly’s strengths quite as well as he could have; he certainly should have used her more thoroughly through the middle section. Instead, he allowed the chasers to improve their position without necessarily having to expend too much energy.
That’s not to say Lane was at fault; he was probably under instructions to give her an easy time leading into the Coolmore. The issue is that The Next Episode cut her down in the fastest last section of the day on a wet track, first-up. He will improve and is certainly capable of reaching the required Coolmore winning figure. In recent years, the winner has been solely targeted toward the Coolmore and has arrived at the race third-up. Tentyris, Switzerland, and Ozzmosis all dodged the Golden Rose in favour of being third-up on Derby Day. That’s not to say that horses third-up in the Coolmore is some sort of trend that you must find, because those ideas are stupid.
Every race is different, and the fact that it’s happened the last three years is probably pure coincidence. But what’s important is that that’s what Maher sees. I imagine that, in his training hut wherever he finds himself these days, there’s a big red circle around The Next Episode, the Gothic and the Coolmore. He will be absolutely primed and peaking on Derby Day.
He rated 99.5 first-up, which is nothing spectacular, but this crop is quite poor, and there aren’t many horses rated over 100 right now.
I’ll be forecasting him to run between 104 and 105 in the Coolmore.
Good luck beating that.
Race 7 | LD-S-8: -17.8L | LD-8-4: +6.3L | LD-4-F: +1.4L | WNR-4-F: +1.8L | WTS: 99 | WFA: 94.3
You wouldn’t have known it, but this group of horses were racing for a place in Australia’s greatest race; in fact, the term “racing” is a stretch. Just shy of eighteen lengths behind par at the 800 metres was the Bart Cummings field. The pace increased thereafter and exponentially so between the 800 and 400 metres. The wind was at their tails too, between that section, so it made it near impossible for those worse than midfield to win.
Mr Monaco was terrifically ridden by Jabez Johnstone, settling outside the lead and enforcing the speed from the four-furlong marker. With a rating of 94.3, he won’t win a Melbourne Cup, but will be toward the bottom of the weights, so some may fancy him. I don’t know how much weight bothers him, though; he’s a big, grinding stayer. No chance in the Cup, but I assume this will be Johnstone’s first Cup mount, so I do hope he runs well. Jabez seems like a pretty likeable character.
Can ride, too.
Litzdeel missed her opportunity. Perhaps she settled a pair too far back, and she could not reel in the eventual winner. She finished 10 lengths quicker than par from the 800-metre point, so she’s in great form and will presumably be targeted toward the Queen Elizabeth Stakes on Stakes Day, provided she doesn’t run in the Cup.
Race 8 | LD-S-8: +5.4L | LD-8-4: +1.2L | LD-4-F: -5.8L | WNR-4-F: -2.6L | WTS: 105 | WFA: 104.2
Cosmic Crusader revelled in the conditions to win the Turnbull Stakes, comprehensively handling the two Cox Plate favourites and anointing himself as a major player in Australasia’s crowning middle-distance race.
With a rating of 104.2, he’s certainly rendered himself a chance in the Cox Plate, and perhaps the Caulfield Cup, which is an idea that has been floated since the dominant win on Saturday. He can win both, and he’s likely to stay a mile and a half, by my assessment.
The pace in the Turnbull was intriguing. Light Infantry led the field to the 1200-metre mark at a slightly better-than-par pace. That changed quickly, as Brown elected to use the tough on-pacer through the middle section and establish separation between him and the field.
Between the 1200 and 600, Light Infantry raced 6.6 lengths faster than par and had a three-length lead as they swung for home.
Delius was beautifully placed by Williams, and any commentary suggesting the ride was bad is ridiculous. Typically, when the pace is as fast as it was, the optimal place to be is three to five lengths from the leader; that is where he was. Unfortunately, Delius wasn’t prepared adequately for a gruelling mile and a quarter on testing ground. He will return to form in the Cox Plate and is in no trouble whatsoever. The excuses are obvious; he will improve markedly after such a tough run. Gai will have him well prepared for Cox Plate day.
Cosmic Crusader was similarly well ridden by Pike and descended on them to win handsomely. I think an enormous factor in his dominance in the Turnbull was his fitness. He had four previous runs this campaign, and on testing ground, he had an advantage over Aeliana and Delius, who had just one and two starts respectively. He won the race between the 1000 and the 400 metres, exploding with a section 9.2 lengths faster than par, and was able to sustain his speed better than any other runner in the race. If he can hold his form, he’ll be with a chance in the Cox Plate, but before that, I will be very interested in him in the Caulfield Cup if he is to run in it.
Aeliana was rather plain but wasn’t fit enough to cope with the pressure created by Light Infantry. There’s no doubt that she can close the gap on Cox Plate Day. No need to worry; she’s well on her way for the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.
Race 9 | LD-S-8: -0.9L | LD-8-4: +2.4L | LD-4-F: -1.2L | WNR-4-F: +1.4L | WTS: 97.7 | WFA: 96.6
Skybird survived a scare as Ben Melham eased her up nearing the winning post and was almost beaten by Smooth Chino.
SKYBIRD…JUST 😱
HOW IS THE BLOOD PRESSURE AFTER THAT?! https://t.co/LaEq4bmwYW
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 3, 2026
The first quarter-mile was slow; they found their positions for the most part. They charged through the middle section, and Skybird won the race there, moving handsomely through the 600 and 200 metres and comfortably handling the field before a little scare late on.
This is her best figure since running third in the T.J. Smith Stakes.
She was so well placed under set weights and penalties, with 55kg on rain-affected ground, she was a weighted certainty if she were to produce her best. Of course, she can be difficult to catch; her best form and her worst vary drastically. But she was somewhere in the middle on Saturday and did enough to win. Perhaps the Champions Stakes will be next for her, and if racing is conducted in similar conditions to last year, she’ll have a chance.
Race 10 | LD-S-8: +2.8L | LD-8-4: 0L | LD-4-F: -4.2L | WNR-4-F: -2.9L | WTS: 95.4 | WFA: 93.6
The Paris Lane was won by Cote Atlantique, who is deep into his preparation and is thriving on his racing, ninth-up on Saturday.
He settled well, slightly better than midfield, and overhauled Just Folk, who was gallant in defeat in the latter stages of the straight.
With a figure of 93.6, there will be plenty of 1400-metre Listed races in the coming weeks. He’s not going to be overly firm in any race any time soon, and neither will anything from this race, but he will run well in anything, such is his consistency.
The market was in love with Ten Commandments, but the money went astray. He could not reproduce his recent form, even in his preferred conditions. He was slightly held up but was never winning. There’s no need to stop racing him, especially while the tracks are wet.
