By Friday afternoon, you’re probably sick of hearing about the weather in Melbourne (warm, not ideal for imports) and Sydney (wet, yuck).
David Hayes has said he’s confident on a Soft 6, less so on a Soft 7, and worried on a Heavy 8. I’ll add a little margin, hope for the Soft 7 and steam into $1.50 for Ka Ying Rising.
But let’s start the analysis in Melbourne.
Caulfield: Rail out 3m
The overall data is relatively consistent, but things get interesting when we look at the lane data for this rail position.
Lane 2 is the standout at 1.27 A2E and 14.8% POT. Once you’re in lanes 5 to 11, it gets tough.
And this is the problem for Cosmic Crusader. From barrier 17 he’s likely to get back, and backmarkers at Caulfield usually have to come wide.
At $4.60, I’ll take him on (until the accounts are completely dry, which feels inevitable in my current form).
Randwick: Rail out 3m
Inside and on the speed is the best combination again, with an A2E of 1.07.
The two red flags are wide and midfield (0.89) and inside but getting back (0.93).
That second one matters in The Everest. Tempted has drawn barrier 1 and is expected to get back. That’s a 0.93 setup for the main danger to Ka Ying Rising.
The lane data also threw up a surprise.
With the rail between 3m and 7m, lane 1 is the best at Randwick by a long way, recording an A2E of 1.26 and 17% POT. Lanes 1 to 4 are all strong.
Plenty of people will tell you to stay off the fence on a wet Randwick track. The long-term numbers say the opposite with the rail out, so let’s see how the first couple of races play out.
Now, let’s try to find some winners.
Caulfield
Race 1 – 2000m
Small bet to warm up on Russian Rock ($4.20). Market support early, steps up to 2000m with Craig Williams jumping on and a lovely draw. Finished quickly last start.
Suggested Bet: Russian Rock ($4.20)
Race 6 – 1000m
Sticking with Williams and staking up on Cavalry Girl ($2.50). Drops back from Group 1 level and is 7/15 at 1000m. Recorded -14.7 last start!
Suggested Bet: Cavalry Girl ($2.50)
Race 7 – 1600m
Backing Regal Ambition ($4.20) in the Thousand Guineas. Early money on, stable flying and the three-year-old filly has recorded two of the three fastest last 600m performances in the field.
Suggested Bet: Regal Ambition ($4.20)
Race 9 – 2400m – Caulfield Cup
The Cup races are so difficult. Elite horses with no Aussie form lines, but bred for the distance.
The market normally tells you who has travelled well, is impressing on the track and looks capable of a big month.
With that in mind, I’m backing Wine Dark Sea ($9.50 into $8.50). He won over 2600m last start, gets in nicely at 54.5kg and Damian Lane pilots. Resume looks ideal at the distance.
Starford ($21 into $19) wants the Irish weather conditions, but the market move suggests he can salute at big odds. Has toe and a great record.
Suggested Bets:
Wine Dark Sea ($8.50)
Starford ($19)
Randwick
Race 2 – 1400m
The topweight is a clear bet on the Punting Form database. Trainer and jockey, tick. Dominates the Top 4 Performers Tally, has the shortest PF AI price and has recorded three of the four fastest last 600m performances.
Suggested Bet: Calamari Ring
Race 6 – 1200m
You can make a case for half the field, easy. Tough race. But I still like at least two bets.
Beadman ($11 into $9) is worth forgiving for his last start. He’s back in Sydney, Zac Purton goes on and there’s plenty of speed drawn around him. He recorded the quickest benchmark in the field only two starts ago.
And I’m backing Signor Tortoni ($34) as second emergency. Pops up multiple times on the database.
Suggested Bets:
Beadman ($9)
Signor Tortoni ($34), if he gains a start
Race 7 – 1200m – The Everest
I think most of us have the same game plan here. Unless it’s on the Heavy 9 side of Heavy 8, back the best.
Ka Ying Rising ($1.50) is a better horse than when he won it last year, and on a dry track he’d be $1.20.
Tempted is tempting at $5, but I’m taking the $1.50 if the track isn’t a disaster.
Suggested Bet: Ka Ying Rising ($1.50)
Race 8 – 1300m
Backing Beiwacht ($3.30). I’m always looking to get on Nash at Randwick (A2E 1.22). Recorded three of the four fastest performances in the last two years. Map not great, track not ideal, but backing.
Suggested Bet: Beiwacht ($3.30)
Race 9 – 1600m – King Charles III Stakes
Backing Ceolwulf ($3.70) to win the King Charles again. Should be shorter. Blinkers on, wet track, Randwick mile. Joe over JMac in this one.
Suggested Bet: Ceolwulf ($3.70)
Doomben
Race 2 – 2200m
Kenmare Bay ($3) is the best bet in Brisbane.
Leads the Top 4 Performers Tally, has the quickest closing speed, claims 1.5kg and has recorded the two fastest last 600m performances.
Suggested Bet: Kenmare Bay ($3)
Race 7 – 1200m
The market has shouted Spiethtacular ($4.60 into $3.30) here. So no spoil on the price.
But Gollan and Jones should rinse and repeat from two-and-a-half weeks ago. Same class, same track, same 1200m. Maps on the bunny and shouldn’t get caught.
Suggested Bet: Spiethtacular ($3.30)
Ascot
Race 3 – 1000m
I can’t back the topweight fast enough here. Holly Nottle can ride, claims 1.5kg and the PF AI is half the price. The market agrees, with a move from $7 into $5.50.
Suggested Bet: Hezangelic ($5.50)
A few more at odds
Finally, a couple more throws at the stumps:
- Caulfield Race 4: The Thorncaster ($23)
- Randwick Race 4: Piggyback ($10)
- Doomben Race 6: Tempranillo ($15)
