Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Caulfield.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced. Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played – David Pfundt (Form King)
Gentle 10-15kmh Southerly/SW winds for most of the program, but from 5pm a bit stronger and reported as 25-30kmh SSE. From the 7 Circle races, 13/21 place-getters were fence in run or outside lead (11, 2) and 6 of the 7 winners came from the fence or OSL (5, 1). In the 3 Chute races, 6/9 place-getters were fence in run or OSL (5, 1) and 2/3 winners, but worth mentioning that Race 8 was run at a very fast tempo and suited the back-markers. With two thirds of place-getters finding this position and 80% of winners, I think it’s fair to say that it was a fence advantage on the day. This was a reasonably predictable pattern for the 3m rail in recent Caulfield Cup meetings run on dry ground. 5/10 winners led and won, 2 were 2nd at the 400m (both on fence) and the other 3 came from 6th and 2 x 9th on the turn. While it might be tempted to call it an on pace bias, (and I guess it presents that way), it was actually a fence bias. When the ground is genuinely “Good 3” and the fence is on fire, on-pacers invariably do well. I’ll be very forgiving of back and wide runs in races where the race shape was against them (Thousand Guineas, Ethereal Stakes, Race 10 – Concord Connie).
Race 1 – Caulfield Classic
Speed tags: LD-S-8: -8.5L, LD-8-4: -0.2L, LD-4-F: +4.2L, WNR-4-F: +4.6L
Ratings: WTS: 86.1 | WFA: 92.4
The Derby picture became all the more murky after Saturday’s Caulfield Classic.
Tony Ottobre’s King Snitz, a son of Australian Oaks winner Princess Jenni, raced into Derby contention, narrowly defeating Vallice and Cignetti. As is tradition in this particular race, there was no pace to speak of, and it was dominated by those that were on pace. The speed went on approaching the 600-metre mark, as Lane elected to get mobile aboard King Snitz, and he had reached Vallice, who led the race, once they had rounded the turn. Cignetti was not able to improve his position in the manner that King Snitz did because he had no room to, and perhaps if he built his revs earlier, he would have won the race. Nonetheless, this race has not ranked particularly well and is vulnerable to an alternate form line. Is the Derby winner amongst this field? Perhaps, but I, and the market, will look elsewhere.
Race 2 – Ethereal Stakes
Speed tags: LD-S-8: +2.9L, LD-8-4: -1.1L, LD-4-F: -3.1L, WNR-4-F: -3.1L
Ratings: WTS: 83.8 | WFA: 90.9
Similarly to the Caulfield Classic, the Ethereal Stakes made the Oaks no clearer.
Quick Finish made the running, at a very good speed too, at least in the early section. Upon reaching the 1200-metre mark, Quick Finish had raced eight lengths quicker than par to establish the lead. The speed slowed dramatically between the 1200 and 800 metres, in excess of five lengths over the course of a quarter mile. Thereafter, the pace resumed and Quick Finish was good enough to stave off her challengers, aided by the nature of the track pattern. With a figure of 90.9, she’s not a good winner of the Ethereal, and historically, it has been won with a better rating. Tharwa is very much an Oaks filly; in fact, her dam won the Queensland version. She was last and highly unsuited by the nature of the pace and track pattern. Her run becomes even more impressive when accounting for the 600 to 400-metre section, where she was badly held up and was almost two lengths behind par, while the first three were in clear running and close to par between that section. Her concluding section was two lengths better than par. If the Oaks winner is in this field, I’m rather confident that it’s her.
The Oaks picture typically only ever begins to take formation after the Wakeful on Derby Day. The favourite for the Oaks, Proxima Dea, who won the Gloaming against the colts and geldings, has quite a ratings edge and is from the family of an Oaks winner herself, in Gypsy Goddess.
Race 3 – Alinghi Stakes
Speed tags: LD-S-8: -1L, LD-8-4: +0.5L, LD-4-F: -0.8L, WNR-4-F: -0.8L
Ratings: WTS: 91.9 | WFA: 92.9
The Alinghi Stakes changed complexion in an instant, as the heavily backed odds-on favourite, Geegees Mistruth, missed the start badly and could not win from where she was.
Gentle Steel led the field quite comfortably, at a very even speed.
Beau Mertens, who rode the winner, quite brilliantly got the pace exactly right. He quickened when he should have quickened upon reaching the 600 metres, and had the horse underneath him to capitalise on the obvious advantages that the track catered to him and his mare. She was unwanted in betting, eventually starting $24 on the exchange, as punters only had eyes for Geegees Mistruth and, to an extent, Signature Scent.
Geegees Mistruth was gallant in defeat and sustained good speed between the 800 and 200 metres to at least give herself a chance, but her run came to an end before she was really ever in contention.
There’s an 1100-metre Group 3 sprint at Flemington on Derby Day that she can be well thought of in. This is no blemish on her record.
Race 4
Speed tags: LD-S-8: -2.4L, LD-8-4: +4.3L, LD-4-F: -3.9L, WNR-4-F: -1L
Ratings: WTS: 86.2 | WFA: 90.5
Milson’s Point continued a very difficult beginning to the day for punters, winning with a starting price of $85 on the exchange. While there were five or six jockeys and horses vying for a prominent early position, there was no real rush to win the lead.
Caulfield Race 4 | Milson’s Point
Two Saturdays, two mammoth-priced Caulfield winners for @cmaherracing 🤯
Tag the mate who’ll swear he was their best of the day tonight ⬇️
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy https://t.co/YMKiYI0r2z— Racing.com (@Racing) October 17, 2026
It was rather weird, and a funny race to review. Michael Dee on I Am Aria and Mark Zahra on Aemond were quite content with racing wide through the early section and weren’t in a rush to lead. The speed was only moderate through the first quarter-mile, and once I Am Aria and Aemond did eventually cross to lead, they slowed the pace even further. That led to plenty of runners being flushed wide to avoid tripping over heels and quite an awkward section through the middle stages.
Milson’s Point avoided all of that and was able to build momentum through the all-important middle section of the race. That’s not to discredit his performance at all, it was great, but the ducks aligned and this was his moment.
Star Of Macedon was brilliant; he was unfavoured by the nature of the pace and race shape, but finished well nonetheless. I would assume the Carbine Club Stakes will be his target on Derby Day, and he must be in that with a chance. The logical progression for plenty of these will be either the Carbine Club or the Amanda Elliott on Cup Day. Without seeing any likely fields, or thinking too hard about what might be there, I’d look for different form.
Race 5 – Harry White Stakes
Speed tags: LD-S-8: +3.6L, LD-8-4: +1.8L, LD-4-F: -4.8L, WNR-4-F: -3.6L
Ratings: WTS: 96.4 | WFA: 96.4
As expected, the Harry White Stakes was run quickly, and with brilliant positioning, and under the right circumstances, War Machine returned to the winner’s enclosure for the first time since he won the Gilgai last year.
There was an abundance of pace on paper, and it came to fruition. El Rocko, Williadow, Zou Sensation and Private Eye all vied for the lead, and the pace was unrelenting throughout.
It became a battle of positioning and attrition, and War Machine had the most brilliant of rides along the running rail, which was heavily advantageous all day. War Machine doesn’t seem to be the horse he once was, and I don’t believe he will ever return to the form he was in when winning the Stradbroke and even the Gilgai last year, but still, with a figure of 96.4, he remains a serviceable Group 3 horse who will do his connections proud, so good on him.
Private Eye is similar; he’s seemingly very much on the decline, but that’s not remiss of him at all, he’s been a champion for all involved in him. Perhaps he needs a break now; he hasn’t had a break from racing since April.
Race 6
Speed tags: LD-S-8: -1.3L, LD-8-4: +1.3L, LD-4-F: +1.8L, WNR-4-F: +1.8L
Ratings: WTS: 100.7 | WFA: 101.4
Cavalry Girl raced to a new career best under ideal conditions, returning a figure of 101.4.
She has been a revelation this campaign, racing from a Benchmark 70 all the way through to running second in the Moir Stakes and now winning this. She’s certainly a five-furlong specialist, which restricts the amount of races she can run in, but Tom Dabernig has done, and will continue to do, an excellent job with her.
Cavalry Girl led quite comfortably, at a controlled speed. Williams established the lead without having to ask her to rush to do so, and raced below par through the first quarter-mile. She quickened at the 600 metres, and she was much too good. Too fast, put simply.
Caulfield Race 6 | Cavalry Girl
Cavalry Girl kicks clear under Willo and don’t the crowd love it! 😍
@dabernigracing has his mare absolutely flying 🙌
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy https://t.co/AM0rOagaoJ— Racing.com (@Racing) October 17, 2026
The run of Sweynesday was rather impressive. He’s only had three starts in Australia and was just first-up on Saturday. He’s a Group 3 winner over six furlongs in New Zealand, so perhaps he can be targeted toward a race during Cup week. There are plenty of options, and he might be interesting in whichever one they choose to take him to.
Race 7 – Thousand Guineas
Speed tags: LD-S-8: +1.4L, LD-8-4: +0.9L, LD-4-F: -2L, WNR-4-F: -2L
Ratings: WTS: 91.7 | WFA: 96.8
The Thousand Guineas was dominated by Ciaron Maher, and much of that came down to pace and tactics.
Saintly Dancer and Icelady consolidated the early lead after a quarter-mile and did so without having to spend too much petrol. The early pace was good, but not overly fast. Saintly Dancer was just shy of two lengths inside par to the 1000-metre mark and very much sustained her speed throughout. It was a plan very well executed by Team Maher; they used the advantages of how the track was playing, and they ran the quinella.
With a figure of 96.8, this isn’t an outstanding renewal by the numbers, but I think we’ll look back on this year’s edition quite fondly. There’s a few really nice fillies in this, and the best of them is Regal Ambition, I believe. She was not favoured at all by the track and ran a better figure in the Jim Moloney than what it took to win the Guineas. There’s a possibility that she may continue on with an Oaks, and she will be the one to beat in that, I’m sure. I would not begrudge them for setting up shop with her, though. She’s only very lightly raced.
As for the winner, she has improved immensely with racing and is an excellent advertisement for racing young horses. She had the race smarts to capitalise on the conditions, and was good enough to win the race. She mightn’t eventuate into the horse that Regal Ambition will, but she needn’t be. She has won her Group 1.
Race 8 – Blue Sapphire Stakes
Speed tags: LD-S-8: +5.8L, LD-8-4: +2L, LD-4-F: -6.6L, WNR-4-F: -2.8L
Ratings: WTS: 88.1 | WFA: 91.6
The Blue Sapphire was won with a lowly rating of 91.6 by Marffiano, who caused yet another upset result for punters.
The pace was very fast; Jarbardar and Pocketfullofcash tore across and led the race eight lengths faster than par and obviously could not sustain it. That allowed Marffiano, who settled toward the rear, to cut the corner and slice through the pack and nab Barracks on the wire. They finished very slowly in this, and it was very much the last horse standing, and Marffiano had the right run to capitalise upon that. This race has ranked quite poorly and will not be well fancied by punters across Cup week.
Doubt Time may be the exception to the rule, though. He was slow away and detached from the field. He made a swooping run from the rear and was wide around the turn. Perhaps he can be a blowout in the Coolmore, but I think he’ll eventually be better suited over seven furlongs and perhaps a mile, than six furlongs.
Race 9 – Caulfield Cup
Speed tags: LD-S-8: -9.8L, LD-8-4: +3L, LD-4-F: +2.8L, WNR-4-F: +6.2L
Ratings: WTS: 104.9 | WFA: 101.6
What a privilege to watch and celebrate a friend of mine winning a major, the Caulfield Cup.
Kingswood won the race for Gavin Bedggood and John Allen with a figure of 101.6.
The pace was very slow; Royal Supremacy led the race 12 lengths slower than par to the 1000 metres. Slower than I had envisaged the pace to be. Tyler Schiller realised that he could not win under the circumstances if he didn’t make something happen, so he urged Soul Of Spain to improve his position through the 1200 and 800 metres. The pace exploded thereafter.
The beauty in John Allen’s ride is that he didn’t panic. Once the pace went on, he kept Kingswood in rhythm and allowed him clear running to unravel his sprint at the top of the straight.
Kingswood certainly saw out a mile and a half, finishing the race in the 15th-fastest last 200 of the meeting.
Kingswood recorded a new peak figure, racing to 101.6 on Form King’s weight-for-age scale, an improvement from 100, which he ran in the Might And Power seven days prior.
Saint George was excellent, making the most of his inside passage; he raced himself into Melbourne Cup contention if he wasn’t already. I have my doubts over his credentials over two miles, but I didn’t think he would stay a mile and a half, so who am I to say.
Enfjaar was given a brilliant ride, but I doubt that he’ll push on to the Melbourne Cup. Perhaps the Champions Stakes is an option for him, but I doubt that he’s quite good enough to beat our premier middle-distance horses.
Cosmic Crusader was brilliant, nonetheless quite a ways from his peak. He will benefit returning to a mile and a quarter in the Cox Plate.
King Valley was a tremendous run. He was excellent through the middle section in the Turnbull and consolidated on his run in this. He’s not without a hope in the Cup, but by no means should he be toward the head of betting.
Middle Earth was third in the Melbourne Cup last year and seems to be in similar form this year. He will run well.
Bedggood is one of the best trainers Australia has; the numbers suggest as much too. Remarkable. I’m so happy for him.
Of course, the race was tragically marred by the fall of Half Yours and the passing of Ohope Wins. My condolences to everyone involved with Ohope Wins, and I wish Half Yours a quick recovery.
Race 10
Speed tags: LD-S-8: -0.2L, LD-8-4: +1.2L, LD-4-F: +1.4L, WNR-4-F: +1.4L
Ratings: WTS: 99.8 | WFA: 99.1
Shadhavar bolted up in the last race of the day, running her opposition into submission.
With a figure of 99.1, this is a new career best for her. Perhaps seven furlongs is her preferred trip, despite being effective over six furlongs. She was the heavily tried favourite in the Courtza on Memsie Stakes Day, then beaten in South Australia on heavy ground last start. She quickly turned her form around and won with sustained speed. I would not back her to hold her form, though. This seems as if it were a very brilliant opportunity for her, and one she made the most of. She mightn’t be quite so well suited at her next start.
Concorde Connie was well beaten but finished in very quick concluding sectionals. She will be ready at her next start, presumably at Flemington. If there were a horse to follow from the meeting, it would be her.
