Good Will Hunting: Sir Delius heads Cox Plate betting assault as Will Elford finds value at Flemington

Australia’s best race, for the first time in its existence, will be run at the hallowed grounds of Flemington Racecourse. Fittingly, it’s a splendid renewal. There mightn’t be a top-line talent like years gone by, but what it doesn’t have in a superstar, it has in depth.

And, duly, it is a remarkably good betting race.

As there always is, there will be a multitude of shrewd pundits stating their cases, and none will be wrong. There are six or seven highly credentialled runners that would have a winning chance in any given year, bar the very good ones. A good Cox Plate, I’m coining it.

And a very good betting one.

My opinion? Well, of course the market has a hold on all of these runners, and there’s nothing uncovered. But what sort of pundit would I be to not make my case for one or two?

Cox Plate: The case for Sir Delius

I make Sir Delius favourite. Of course, there might be some concern over how he’s performing this campaign, but I’d contend that he’s racing as well as he ever has first and second-up in his campaigns. Last spring, he was beaten in the Chelmsford with a rating of 100.2, then won the Underwood with 98.6. That might seem low, but you must remember he narrowly beat Golden Path, so it’s impossible to be rated any higher.

He then spiked to win the Turnbull impressively with a rating of 104.9.

In the autumn, he was well beaten over a mile in the Verry Elleegant with a rating of 97.1. He was beaten by Aeliana in the Ranvet with a rating of 101.3, and then exploded with a peak rating in the Queen Elizabeth, beating Autumn Glow with a rating of 107.1.

This campaign, he was beaten for speed in the Makybe Diva Stakes with a rating of 99.5. He was well beaten in testing conditions with a rating of 99.2 in the Turnbull, and now he arrives third-up, in the Cox Plate, readying to absolutely peak. Light Infantry and Land Legend will ensure a good pace, and he’s best equipped to produce his best in the most important race of his career. I make him $4, and an appealing bet north of 7/2.

That’s not to discredit Aeliana; she’s had his scalp previously.

Although I have an inkling this is a lead-in to the Melbourne Cup.

This all reminds me so much of how Verry Elleegant was campaigned.

From barrier ten, she will be ridden conservatively, and if not, it will take the best of James McDonald to find a prominent early position. She will give positional advantage to Sir Delius, and that might be the deciding factor.

I tried long and hard to find Warwoven, and I don’t question his ability to stay a mile and a quarter, but he must have a price, and his price is $5.50. There will be many that identify him as their best way in the race, but I found that to make him a bet, I must forecast a new peak, and I do not see that happening.

Ceolwulf is beautifully set up, and Pride is an excellent campaigner of horses. I find that he’s marked to his absolute best, and that might be the case, but I make him slightly longer than his assigned price in the current market.

Birdman is another runner that piques my interest. He was, of course, beaten in the Caulfield Stakes a fortnight ago. Many will put that down to his inability to win races where the pace is strong, but I’d contend that and suggest that the Underwood certainly wasn’t slow.

Perhaps it’s a case of Chris Waller laying off him a little ahead of his peak performance in the Cox Plate. Maybe it’s that he was not ready then, but he’ll be ready now. He’s run to a figure capable of winning this year’s Cox Plate, and he’s over the odds at his current odds.

I must mention Cosmic Crusader. I think his edge of fitness has dried up by this point, and he may be vulnerable to a peak of some better horses. Of course, he can win, I don’t doubt that, but at his current price, he is opposable.

Will Elford’s Cox Plate maket

For context, this is my market in this year’s Cox Plate.

Race 1: Ice Kool the best bet of the day

The best bet of the day falls in the first race of the day, where Ice Kool makes his first trip south of the New South Wales border.

He has been well thought of by punters across eight starts, starting inside 6/4 on six occasions. He has failed just three times, and, notably, all three failures have come over further than five furlongs.

Put nicely, he’s quite a bit of a nutter and isn’t capable of harnessing his energy well enough to stay any further.

Over 1000 metres, though, under the weight scale, he has returned figures of 96.2, 100.4 twice, and 97.8 last start.

He’s beautifully placed to race to his peak, and as a lightly raced four-year-old, it’s reasonable to suggest that he might be capable of a new peak. Way To The Stars, Spywire and Stokke will ensure a good pace, and he will relax well behind them before unravelling his sprint upon reaching the clocktower.

I make him $2.08, so there remains value in his current price, which has been backed in since markets opened yesterday afternoon.

Tesio Stakes: Two mares to close the day

Too Darn Discreet has been the mare for the Tesio and Matriarch since April earlier this year, when she handled Land Legend and Plymouth over this course and distance. Hindsight is twenty-twenty, of course, but how good does that form look now? Land Legend won the Caulfield Stakes, and Plymouth was fourth in the Epsom.

She has been building with promise across three runs this campaign, running on well in the Let’s Elope, Stocks Stakes and Toorak Handicap.

She is unbeaten over ten furlongs from three starts, and this appears a brilliant opportunity to retain that record. She is a brilliant option for punters to close the day with a winner.

Although, I will bracket her with Soverato, who has seemingly improved as a four-year-old. She was restrained to the rear over a mile at Randwick and finished in scintillating time over the last five furlongs, with sustained speed displaying great aerobic capacity and speed. Her last 200 metres was great, too.

She will settle closer from the draw and will be the beneficiary of a searching pace. She is third-up and well positioned to race to a new career peak on Saturday.

By bracketing the two, you end up with a price just shy of $3.20, which appeals greatly because, based on my prices, they are a $2.60 chance.

Moonee Valley Gold Cup: Aethelwulf to turn the tables

The Moonee Valley Cup is typically an excellent race for second-tier stayers and those building toward a Melbourne Cup tilt, and this year is no different.

The pace forecast is highly interesting, as there’s none of it, but it must be kept in mind that this is a race well desired, as it is used to build a runner’s rating toward gaining a start in the Melbourne Cup. So, while it appears that the pace will be slow, it’s hard to believe that there won’t be a rush to the first bend.

Aethelwulf is the starting point this year. He’s improving with each start, and in my view, he was unsuited by the terribly slow pace in the Metropolitan Handicap. He will certainly roll forward and gain positional advantage over plenty of important runners, and he is capable of racing to a new peak.

Juja Kibo, who beat him well in the Metropolitan, is, of course, a significant danger to him, but I fancy Aethelwulf to turn the tables and win under a more suitable scenario. I make Aethelwulf 3/1 and an appealing option in the Moonee Valley Cup.