The marbles have been selected and barriers drawn for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup, and as always some connections are toasting while others are already reaching for the form guide to work out a plan B. Here’s who came out of the draw smiling, who’s sweating, and two that aren’t quite what they seem.
Winners
Point Of Law (gate 9)
Not sure this bloke could’ve drawn any better. He doesn’t strike me as the sort of horse you want buried away from gate one, as he can get a bit keen, but you wouldn’t want him too wide either. Like the porridge in Goldilocks and the Three Bears, gate nine seems just right. He can let the speed go outside him and settle just in behind the first four to six, one off the fence. He should get his chance.
Enfjaar (gate 8)
Roger Varian’s Enfjaar has drawn for a lovely run in gate eight. I’m not sure the Caulfield Cup form is the right form, and he has the Equicast going on here, but there shouldn’t be any excuses with the run he’s going to get in transit.
Zahrann (gate 11)
Zahrann gets the blinkers on for the first time, which can cause horses to be half a step slow, so I’d prefer him not drawn right on the fence. Gate 11 seems ideal. He’ll settle midfield or just beyond and get his chance if he’s good enough.
Sons And Lovers (gate 3)
Sons And Lovers is another winner from gate three. He has the tactical speed to use the gate and settle handy enough, and he’ll get a similar run in transit to when he won the rich Red Sea Turf in Saudi Arabia earlier this year. He may need a bit of luck getting clear, but Cup fields generally fan out around the home bend and gaps appear. He won’t spend a penny in the run.
So You Are (gate 7)
He’s as tough as teak, this bloke. The Bjorn Baker and Rachel King team are out to continue a big spring, having claimed the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas with Warwoven. So You Are won his way in with an on-speed Bendigo Cup win, and he’s going to get a brilliant run from gate seven.
Zakouma looks well drawn in gate 10, too, but sheesh, he needs to find some form.
It’s not as good (or as bad) as it seems
Middle Earth (gate 1)
The pole is often defaulted to as a plum draw, but I’m not so sure with Middle Earth. He’s been slow out throughout this campaign, and while he’s going to get a fair way back no matter where he’s drawn, I don’t think back and nailed to the rail is ideal. That said, he has a great pilot in Mark Zahra aboard and seems set to peak on Tuesday, having run a cracker in this race last year.
Trustyourinstinct (gate 18)
Conversely, you’d look at gate 18 for the Joseph O’Brien-trained Trustyourinstinct and think it’s far from ideal. But after going extensively through this horse’s catalogue of replays, he’s going to get back anyway, and he’s a horse that thrives on clean air and winding up down the middle. Plus, he has J-Mac in the saddle. Gate 18 might just mean a better price.
Losers
James J Braddock (gate 24)
SEN host Gareth Hall drew the barrier for James J Braddock, but it was hardly his fault he drew gate 24. It was the only marble left by the time saddlecloth 18 was selected. Willo is a rider who generally likes to be as positive as he can with his mounts, but from the wide draw on a horse that has been settling rearward in Ireland, he’s going to have to take his medicine and settle near last.
Wine Dark Sea (gate 23)
Wine Dark Sea has had no luck with gates in Australia, drawing 16 in the Caulfield Cup and now 23 in the Melbourne Cup. After settling handy to a moderate tempo in the Caulfield Cup and folding, I suspect they would’ve loved a soft draw to get him some cover in behind the speed. Instead, they’ve drawn the car park again. Damian Lane either has to follow the speed across and again settle in the first three or four, or ride him much quieter and try to slot in. Damian is a world-class jockey, but he’s going to need to be at his brilliant best.
Goodie Two Shoes (gate 19)
Goodie Two Shoes copped an unbelievable ride from Wayne Lordan in last year’s Cup. Drawn gate 20, Lordan got her into fifth, one off the fence, by the time they left the straight. He’ll need to produce another peach from gate 19. It looks sticky.
Vauban (gate 22) and Royal Supremacy (gate 21)
The Australian Bloodstock team have had a tough 24 hours, with Defiantly ruled out on Saturday morning and then Vauban and Royal Supremacy drawing gates 22 and 21. Royal Supremacy probably presses forward again. He led the Caulfield Cup and wasn’t helped by Jamie Spencer slowing the speed dramatically and inviting pressure, but by the same token he was slow. Vauban will need a very good ride from 22.
