Birdman got up in the Champions Stakes last Saturday. $6, and the Cox Plate form held up. Cheers, Ben Melham.

The carnival’s done, but there’s still plenty on. Sandown Classic Day, The Hunter at Newcastle, and the start of the Perth summer.

Let’s get into the data.

Sandown: The barrier and settling-position trends

Sandown is a Good 4 with the rail true, with a few showers possible in the afternoon. One twist this week: Race 7 over 1200m is run on the Lakeside track.

And the Lakeside 1200m is a leader’s paradise.

The rest of Sandown is on the Hillside track, and the data there is a bit different.

Getting back from an inside gate is a disaster, returning an A2E of just 0.74 and -37.2% POT. Conversely, racing forward from inside (1.09) or middle (1.07) gates beats the market.

And here’s the surprise: getting back from a wide gate is the best of the lot, with an A2E of 1.16!

Jockeys to follow

Ethan Brown is still flying, with an A2E of 1.31 over his last 100 rides, including 22 winners. He’s also recorded 1.19 at Sandown Hillside. Jordan Childs is the other jockey I’m watching.

Trainers to follow

The Hayes stable is the standout, with an A2E of 1.24 over its last 100 runners and 1.33 at Sandown Hillside. Graeme Begg (1.21) and Waterhouse and Bott (1.26) also perform well at the venue.

And the one that surprised me? Ciaron Maher is 0.71 A2E over his last 100 runners.

You can win a Melbourne Cup and still not look after your A2E!

Newcastle: Wide gates can be an advantage

At Newcastle, the standout is horses settling midfield from wide gates. That combination produces an impressive 1.37 A2E and +20.5% POT.

Conversely, pushing forward from an inside gate (0.86) or a wide gate (0.84) has been a negative.

Jockeys to follow

Tim Clark boasts an A2E of 1.35 at Newcastle, while Aaron Bullock is the man, with 129 Newcastle winners and an A2E of 1.18.

Doomben: Midfield runners hold the edge

A quick one for Brisbane. At Doomben with the rail true, settling midfield beats the market from both inside (1.17) and wide (1.25) gates. Going forward from an inside gate returns just 0.78.

Now, let’s bet.

SANDOWN BEST BETS

Race 3 – 1400m

Fundamental Nature ($2.20)

Fundamental Nature has the turn of foot to beat these, and his get-back racing pattern actually suits here, with a 1.16 map edge. Ethan Brown brings confidence to a compelling favourite.

Race 5 – 1600m | Group 2 Sandown Guineas

Magna Sententia ($4.20)

He won a maiden at Geelong last Saturday, sitting outside the leader before drawing clear in fast time.

Punting Form AI isn’t sold, but the map looks great, the money is on, and the stable and jockey make a great team.

Consulate ($6.50) is the danger to me, and I might save.

Race 6 – 1000m

Don’t Hope Do ($6)

The name and silks always get my attention, but Punting Form AI also loves Don’t Hope Do. He’s marked shorter than the $6 on offer, with the stable flying and peak ratings that are elite.

Race 8 – 1400m | Group 1 C.F. Orr Stakes

Beiwacht ($3)

He’s been a touch below his best, but he’ll get every favour from the front, ranking No. 1 for early speed. JMac on, money on. Should be in the finish.

Pericles ($7.50) is a big danger again.

Race 9 – 2400m | Zipping Classic

Travolta ($7)

More JMac love in the Zipping Classic. The 2400m suits, and the top three in the market all have holes.

Travolta ran brilliant sectionals last start and is a bet. She’s A Hustler ($14) looks great value too.

NEWCASTLE BEST BETS

Race 4 – 1600m

Cabbucio ($3.50)

Four placings this preparation without a win, but this is a horse with standout benchmarks. She has the best turn of foot, comes back from 1800m to 1600m, and handles any ground if the rain arrives.

Race 5 – 1600m

Amreekiyah ($4)

Second to Joey Johns, Aaron Bullock owns Newcastle.

Following the data at the top, Amreekiyah is in form too. Quick last start, conditions and distance are great, and the map looks fine.

Get her home, Aaron.

Race 8 – 1300m | The Hunter

Signor Tortoni ($15) and Chidiac ($13)

The Hunter is wide open. A million dollars and nothing between half the field.

Punting Form AI is screaming for punters to back Signor Tortoni. And they have. $26 into $15 already. Pays for the Punting Form subscription right there…

Also backing Chidiac ($13). Fresh, second-up, and she should get the run midfield or a touch forward with cover.

Third pick would be Sweynesday ($7), but I can’t back them all.

MORPHETTVILLE BEST BET

Race 5 – 1572m: Flossing ($6.50)

I’m excited for Flossing tomorrow. Big late-speed advantage, maps well, Hutchinson claims 2kg, and the last-start benchmarks were fast -7.0 over the last 600m!

ASCOT BEST BET

Race 7 – 1100m: Rope Them In ($7)

The highest-rated sprinter in the West, and his first-up figures are elite. Bassett Hound is the favourite, but he’s in feature company for the first time.

A FEW ROUGHIES

Sandown R8: Splash Back ($20)

Newcastle R6: Beside The Ocean ($11)

Newcastle R8: Lord Of Biscay ($21)

That’s it for this week. Thanks for reading and good luck tomorrow.