| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R10 | 1. Transatlantic – Best Bet | Draws well, rock-hard fit fourth-up and suited with rail out +7m. |
| R5 | 7. Skyglider – Next Best | Explosive debut winner; loved both trials this prep; maps ideally fresh. |
| R5 | 8. Miss Freelove – Next Best | Dominant win last start; franked form; maps for perfect trail again. |
| R9 | 1. Stefi Magnetica – Best Value | Out to 1400m suits; ratings superior to rivals and well drawn. |
Turf Talk:
- Rail +7m – Expecting an on-speed advantage on a firm deck with the rail out so far. A proper tempo will be needed to run on from off speed.
The Stats That Matter:
- Ashley Morgan is striking at an impressive 24.1% over the past 90 days with a +33.9% POT.
- Bjorn Baker stable striking at 26.8% (past 90 days) with +26% POT to $10 SP – effective with runners first to third up.
Race 1
Intriguing Kirkham Plate for the 2yos. I’ll lean the way of the $1.4m colt Defensemen. He wasn’t asked for much of an effort in his sole 900m trial but looked to have plenty to offer. Green Kirk showed smart speed up front in both trials – he hasn’t been let off the bridle yet but also isn’t giving the “I’ll explode” vibe. Pearl Of Dubai didn’t run any time but looked sharp visually in her trials. She maps ideally on debut and must be respected. King Campania is the big watch – didn’t have any room at all in his sole trial but looked to have plenty to offer.
Selections:
(2) Defensemen
(3) Green Kirk
(7) Pearl Of Dubai
(4) King Campania
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Plain Highway this week – won’t take much ability to win this. I’ll stick with the Highway form from past weeks with Christa, a touch luckless in that effort and should find this easier. I respect the early money for Poisen Point – smart last start Highway win but does climb in the weights. Ghost Walker comes off a confidence-building last-start win, the rise in grade is the knock. Release Point needs luck from the draw but goes in the mix off a last start placing.
Selections:
(1) Christa
(3) Poisen Point
(2) Ghost Walker
(4) Release Point
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Even Midway. I’ll lean the way of Oakfield Jupiter – smart recent trials and brings two strong figures from his debut prep. The knock is the wide gate, but that can be offset with a positive ride. Zounaka peaks fitness-wise now, she can mix her form but hits this race off a solid last start effort when ridden off speed. Mafia put up a career peak effort last start and should be at full fitness – he’s a bit of a control freak, which suggests they’ll roll forward from the draw. So Good So Cool needs luck from the draw, but I respect the early market support. Broadway Bouncer is next best.
Selections:
(10) Oakfield Jupiter
(9) Zounaka
(3) Mafia
(4) So Good So Cool
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
Lacklustre race overall. Point And Shoot goes on top – he’s had an interrupted prep but hit back last start with a solid effort. Quick back-up and straight to 1600m reads okay. Jojo Was A Man was plain first-up but can be forgiven, slick tick-over trial since and goes in the mix. The Portelli yard is starting to hit form – Kintyre maps ideally here third up and brings smart figures. With the ideal run in transit, he’s in the mix. Fortune was impressive first up before a flat second-up run, look for him to bounce back now third up.
Selections:
(9) Point And Shoot
(3) Jojo Was A Man
(4) Kintyre
(10) Fortune
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
Exciting edition of the Brian Crowley Stakes. A very even field overall with plenty of different form lines to line up. Miss Freelove was dominant last start when winning second-up — that form has been franked at the midweeks, and she looks to find the 1-1 here from a lovely draw. The big watch is on Skyglider – he beat multiple subsequent G3 winners on debut before being sent for a spell. I’ve loved both of his trials back this prep, and he maps ideally here first up. Grand Eagle was impressive first up before a forgive run second up when locked up on the rails. He’ll get back from the draw but can run on. Young Mister Grace rises in grade but goes in the numbers.
Selections:
(8) Skyglider
(7) Miss Freelove
(2) Grand Eagle
(5) Young Mister Grace
Suggested Bet: Skyglider (Win) / Miss Freelove (Win)
Race 6
Lindermann looks to be a good thing on paper. He brings dominant form and ratings profile to this event while also mapping to get a very soft time of it out in front. Bad luck is the only worry. The consistent Waller duo Kovalica and Militarize go in the mix; they don’t like winning but can run on into the placings.
Selections:
(1) Lindermann
(3) Kovalica
(4) Militarize
Suggested Bet: Lindermann (Win)
Race 7
Cracking edition of the Callander-Presnell. Ohope goes firmly on top here – yes, he got the right tempo to explode last start in the Tapp-Craig, but it showed his versatility. He goes to 1600m and can sit closer from the draw. Rivellino was luckless in the G1 Caulfield Guineas – back to Sydney now and stays at 1600m. Ruination brings a third form line to this event coming through the Gloaming Stakes; he sat on speed and stuck on well behind Attica. A repeat of that has him in the finish. Duke Of Arrakis is next best.
Selections:
(2) Ohope
(1) Rivellino
(4) Ruination
(8) Duke Of Arrakis
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
The G1 Spring Champion Stakes is the feature event on the program. It looks to be Shangri La Boy’s race to lose on paper – he was 1400m to 1800m last start but destroyed his rivals in a front-running masterclass. He maps to get complete control from the sticky 2000m starting point. Attica is the danger – huge win last start over 1600m before a tick-over 1200m trial. The big query is the draw; I’d suggest they roll forward. Champagne Hero is the improver – he started $4.20 last start before not seeing daylight in the straight. Now $15/$3.80, he has to be a bet here. It’s incredible to think Federalist is still a maiden and yet to place in five career starts. He’s been hitting the line well and looks ready for 2000m. Master Of Air and Within The Law round out the numbers.
Selections:
(2) Shangri La Boy
(1) Attica
(7) Champagne Hero
(6) Federalist
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
Open edition of The Invitation. I’m happy to side with the class galloper Stefi Magnetica – completely underestimated here off an unsuited first-up 1200m contest. She looks much better placed out to 1400m from a positive draw. She has figures on the board that her rivals can’t match. Monte Supreme is flying – she has the best turn of foot in this race but will need it from the poor draw. Miss Roumbini has smart formlines through the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke but presents here off a setback. The in form Manaal rounds out the numbers – she’ll get the gun run again but does need to improve to be winning again.
Selections:
(1) Stefi Magnetica
(7) Monte Supreme
(3) Miss Roumbini
(2) Manaal
Suggested Bet: Stefi Magnetica E/W
Race 10
Transatlantic goes firmly on top in the last. He’s full of fitness now fourth-up and importantly draws well here. With the rail out +7m, he should land on speed and get his chance to go back-to-back. You could make a case that General Salute wins the Alan Brown Stakes last start with even luck – he’ll need things to fall his way again from the tricky draw. Cafe Millenium is absolutely flying, the slight query here though is the lack of tempo up front and the rail out +7m. Encap is next best, he does struggle to win but can figure in the finish here.
Selections:
(1) Transatlantic
(5) General Salute
(8) Cafe Millenium
(3) Encap
Suggested Bet: Transatlantic
