Betsy’s Set: Geelong Cup (Take 2!)

Race 1

(6) Some People Callme was good on return at Sandown behind Silver Magnate and Flying Valley when sticking to his task. He has jumped out well since at Flemington and will be suited if this race is run at a good pace. (8) First Chorus is in great form and has the class to win. Although she can give away a big start to her rivals with her backmarker racing pattern. (10) Vivacissimo has shown good talent in her few starts and liked her most recent jump out at Flemington.

Selections:
(6) Some People Callme
(8) First Chorus
(10) Vivacissimo
(7) Dramaticus

Suggested Bet: Some People Callme (Win)

Race 2

Thought the win of (3) Matsuda was brilliant at Sale when smashing his rivals off a fast pace, he got lost a bit late, being so far in front from the 200m, and started to wander around so can argue he could have rated better if he went straight. I love the step up in trip for him and feel this is his race to lose on that win at Sale. I’d have him clear favourite on that rating and the fact he’s in a stable that just get it right with their lightly raced stayers. (14) Simply Gold comes out of a strong maiden at Ballarat at 2000m last start and looks to have had the right preparation to run the 2200m right out. He’s a real smokey for mine here at odds. (4) Azazel was good in the Super Impose behind Options and that looks a good reference for this. He draws for a soft run just behind the speed and should make his presence felt here. (10) Savisanta got too far back at Sale behind Matsuda and was a bit one-paced when they took off but kept coming to the line. He’ll love the step up in trip on that run and Waller has peaked a few for this race in the past.

Selections:
(3) Matsuda
(14) Simply Gold
(4) Azazel
(10) Savisanta

Suggested Bet: Matsuda (Win) and Simply Gold (Each-Way)

Race 3

Deep race with a host of winning chances and progressive gallopers in the race. I thought (4) Emphasize was a good run at The Valley last start when posted wide on a fence night and battled hard for 4th. He’s now hard race fit and gets the services of Craig Williams who has ridden him well in the past. Expect him to roll forward here. (5) The Muffin Man could be an improver with the blinkers on here 2nd up for Shane Jackson after an even effort fresh, his best form last prep around Athanatos stands up well for this. (12) Prochester likes wet ground and could improve drastically 2nd up at a more suitable trip. (8) Sigiriya Rock may need another run but has shown talent in his last prep and was OK fresh.

Selections:
(4) Emphasize
(5) The Muffin Man
(12) Prochester
(8) Sigiriya Rock
Suggested Bet: Emphasize (Each-Way)

Race 4

Year in, year out this race is a beauty and the field this year suggests we should get a cracking contest. Think the market is right here with (7) Gilded Water being favourite. He’s the horse on the up, who produced a big rating performance at Caulfield over 2000m. The Bart Cummings was a nightmare for his connections and backers when he took hold of Jamie Melham and bolted in front, running sectionals too fast to sustain and being over run late. His effort was still enormous to run 3rd and they’ve now put the Norton Bit on for him to settle better and employed strong jockey Dec Bates. Think he makes a statement here and becomes one of the leading Melbourne Cup chances. (4) Torranzino was a big run in The Bart Cummings when 2nd to Valiant King, who backed up that form in the Caulfield Cup. He’d love a fast pace again here and usually holds his form once he hits it. (2) Berkeley Square and (9) Fernao were both also big runs in that same race and hit the race in good form.

Selections:
(7) Gilded Water
(4) Torranzino
(2) Berkeley Square
(9) Fernao

Suggested Bet: Gilded Water (Win)

Race 5

Another deep race with some quality gallopers for this level including Stoli Bolli and Proved. Think the progressive (13) Spione is the overs in the race though, given he was terrific last prep and has jumped out very sharply at Flemington. Think he gets a dream run from an inside gate for Jye McNeil who is riding in good form and feel he can be the knockout late. (12) Stoli Bolli is in hot form but has just found one better at his past two. Should push forward here from gate 1 and drops in weight 2.5kgs given he technically goes up in class, despite this likely being a weaker race than his last run. Just feel he is rock bottom odds though. (6) Persian Spirit was enormous first up at Flemington when winning and then good last start when just off that first up rating. He has won here and draws to get back and come down the middle late. (14) Kiko was close up at The Valley last start in a similar race, her form prior amongst Don’t Hope Do has to put her in the mix.

Selections:
(13) Spione
(12) Stoli Bolli
(6) Persian Spirit
(14) Kiko

Suggested Bet: Spione (Each-Way)

Race 6

Race of the day, this, the Melbourne Cup Country Series Heat, and feel we can have a cracking bet in the race with roughie (9) Ashau Valley. He had a terrific preparation last time in, really elevating on what he’d done previously but his first up run was terrific at Benalla in a heat of this series on Cup Day there. His last 600m was enormous against the day and he had to circle the field doing it the hard way. Like the booking of Ben Melham and think he can lift again on that run. Completely overlooked by the market at $21, marked him $7 and keen to bet given that. (5) Flying Valley is airborne this prep and makes his own luck on speed. Crossed the line with Tom Kitten last start in the Feehan Stakes and prior to that beat the impressive Silver Magnate. (1) Outta Compton doesn’t know how to run a bad race and thought he trialled well in the lead up here. His best form is certainly good enough to figure in the finish here and the rain predicted only helps him. (14) Dubai Watch rated well two back and happy to forgive last run. He maps for a soft run and has won here.
Against favourite (11) Jenni The Fox who looks far too short off OK runs in harder grade but not convinced she’s flying and draws wide with a tricky map.

Selections:
(9) Ashau Valley
(5) Flying Valley
(1) Outta Compton
(14) Dubai Watch

Suggested Bet: Ashau Valley (Win/Place 1×3)