| Race | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Carolina Breeze | Best Bet |
| 3 | Light Filled | Next Best |
| 2 | Tap Dance & Think Baby | Two-bet play |
Turf Talk
- Rail back to the True, having been out 9m at the most recent meeting.
- Track improved from a Soft 7 to a Soft 5 the last 24 hours.
- Light winds forecast, they won’t impact racing.
- Defaulting to horses on speed having an edge, as it can be when the rail is true at Ballarat.
Race 2
This isn’t an overly strong maiden.
(9) Tap Dance draws wide here but they only have one bend to navigate from the 1200m chute and being a barrier blanket horse, a wide draw probably suits as she can miss the kick a touch but still muster to get on speed. She has shown a reasonable degree of talent across a few jump-outs leading into this and she strikes a most winnable race on debut. Expect her to roll forward and give them something to catch at a big price.
Vin Hall has taken over the training of (10) Think Baby and she gets the blinkers on for the first time. Loved her work through the line in a recent Mornington jump-out. Vin Hall does a good job with these tried horses, striking at 33% this season. Sticky gate, but think she can figure in the finish at double figures.
Suggested bet: Backing Tap Dance and Think Baby.
Race 3
There doesn’t look a lot of speed here which should allow (3) Light Filled to control the tempo. She trialled nicely prior to her debut at this track over 1000m when beaten by a handy one in Angel Eyes. Not mad on horses that debut over shorter distances than they trial – Light Filled having trialled over 1050m prior to that 1000m debut – and I suspect she’s going to be much better suited up in trip. She should have a tactical edge on her rivals and give them plenty to catch.
(9) Sketch rattled home in the best last 400/200m splits of the meeting first up at Kilmore, her first start for the Freedmans (formerly with James Cummings). It was a career peak run but she did have the advantage of sucking up on the rail. That said, step to 1400m looks ideal, just think she’s short enough given she will spot Light Filled a decent start. (10) Strictly Business looks the other winning hope. She has always shown a degree of talent at the trials, debuting in town at her only start.
Suggested bet: Backing Light Filled. Quinella 3,9,10.
Race 7
Good speed here with (5) Elizacam and (13) Meisho likely to fight for the top.
(15) Carolina Breeze looks a big price at $6. She was a good winner on debut at Bendigo and then raced in restricted room at Pakenham at her only other start. Recent trial at Flemington was excellent, especially through the line. Drawn to get a perfect trail from gate five. Ticks plenty of boxes – I mark her much shorter than the current quote.
Suggested bet: Backing Carolina Breeze EW.
