| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | #10 Entrusting – Key Play | Ben Allen on and blinkers first time indicate there could be sharp improvement. Big effort last start when never a hope in on pace dominated race. |
| R4 | #13 Tee Eight – Value | Big run at Cranbourne when held up around the home turn and out late at winner who had gun run. Flying this prep and looks big odds in an even race. |
| R6 | #11 Scillato – Next Best | Smart horse returning. Good trials and has talent to win. |
| R8 | #2 Fear No Evil – Best Bet | Nash on key here, fires across to lead and has trialled well. Surprised not shorter in the market given ratings last prep and likely map. |
Turf Talk:
- Track rated a Good 4 on Tuesday night with no rain predicted, expect an upgrade tomorrow to a 3 and with the rail in the true position expecting no disadvantage to be on pace and near the fence.
The Stats That Matter:
- Celine Gaudray is airborne at the minute, riding 24 winners from her last 100 rides at a 83% positive Return On Investment and is smashing market expectations with 1.94 wins against an expected 1 win. She’s riding at the peak of her powers and rides race favourite Thanks Gorgeous in Race 1.
- Ben Allen is in good form also at the minute and has a good record when riding at Bendigo. Over the last 3 years, Ben has ridden 12 winners here from 65 rides at a 18.5% winning percentage and 18% Return On Investment. He has some key mounts throughout the card including R3 – Entrusting and R5 – Tennessee Bound.
- Annabel & Rob Archibald have had their Melbourne stable firing in the new season here in Victoria with 12 winners from 78 starters at an 50% Return On Investment and 34.6% place strike rate in that period. They saddle up key chance in the Cup – Don Diego De Vega.
Race 1
(10) Thanks Gorgeous bumped into some smart ones last prep and her last run in the Quezette, behind Ferivia and My Gladiola, was a top performance. She’s come back in good order looking at her most recent Flemington jump out and think the 1000m at Bendigo out of the chute start should really suit her. Going to take a stack of beating if she replicates her ratings from last prep. (1) Cavern did nice work in a recent jump out at Flemington and looks to have good natural talent. Respect the Hayes stable when they produce debutants to the races. (6) Winter Hail looks a real speedster. Ran well on debut and they perhaps found the 1200m too far at his second start when weak late on a Heavy track. Liked his recent jump out at Cranbourne and think he’s better suited at 1000m on return. (4) Street Legal has had the run back this prep and was OK at Pakenham, despite racing below market expectations. He can improve here.
Selections:
(10) Thanks Gorgeous
(1) Cavern
(6) Winter Hail
(4) Street Legal
Suggested Bet: No Bets.
Race 2
Intriguing race with a lot of progressive 3yos hitting the race in form. Think the odds on offer for (9) Dancingonmyown are too big here. Really liked the return win at Wodonga against Commedia, when she stormed home from the back on a track that suited on-pacers and ran some slick sectionals. Form last prep around Highvol & Stay Cosmic reads well for this and think there’s good pace on paper here which should help her. Great each-way play. (8) Castellito was a strong winner at Kyneton and was heavily backed there but the overall rating wasn’t overly strong out of that race. Still, she maps well here and is open to improvement 2nd up. (2) Lope De Lardo could improve with a run under the belt but still may want further in trip. His effort first up was good against older horses. (3) Mongolian Gobi will put himself on speed here from Gate 2 and ran well last start, 45 days between runs is a query though.
Selections:
(9) Dancingonmyown
(8) Castellito
(2) Lope De Lardo
(3) Mongolian Gobi
Suggested Bet: Dancingonmyown (Win, Place 1×3)
Race 3
Open race but think (10) Entrusting can really improve here 3rd up with Ben Allen in the saddle and blinkers on. Thought he was good last start when making ground from the back in a race dominated on-pace and think on that run he’s tracking nicely. His best ratings last prep is good enough to win this. (3) Opening Address was brilliant first up at Seymour behind Lovelycut and think he can push right forward here. His run 2nd up in the Australian Guineas rated highly when finishing 3.5 lengths off Feroce and if he runs to that level here than he will be hard to hold out. (1) Hiyaam Proud was well off his best last campaign but his best form is good enough to win this. Has jumped out well for this at Mornington and has a decent fresh record. (9) Masterful is perhaps the big improver at odds, had no luck at Murtoa last start when back and wide. Gets the blinkers on and a 3kg claim from Rose Hammond. That could see him elevate on recent ratings.
Selections:
(10) Entrusting
(3) Opening Address
(1) Hiyaam Proud
(9) Masterful
Suggested Bet: Entrusting (Win).
Race 4
Think this race profiles well for (13) Tee Eight who was good when 2nd at Cranbourne a few weeks back behind the in form Mawhera, he was held up around the home turn and thought he was a bit unlucky that night to be beaten. Prior to that he was a dominant winner in a Maiden at Warrnambool and think he has been a changed horse with that confidence booster. Love the booking of Mickey Dee here and happy to be with him on an each-way basis. (11) Leonchroi was set a task at Seymour off a slow pace at 2000m, when rattling home for 2nd. Like him up to 2400m and feel the Bendigo track should suit him. He’s still a horse on the up. (8) Mickio is flying for local trainer Matthew Enright and can make his presence felt. He was a strong winner with a big weight at Echuca last start. (1) Tikemyson has been good in both the Hamilton and Horsham Cups of late. He does have the big weight here but has to be a live contender on those runs.
Selections:
(13) Tee Eight
(11) Leonchroi
(8) Mickio
(1) Tikemyson
Suggested Bet: Tee Eight (Each-Way)
Race 5
Good race this, but hurt with key scratchings, given that happy to side with the lightly raced (15) Bridgeitall, who did some nice things last prep and jumped out well at Seymour alongside Group performed Rise At Dawn. (5) Lake Forest is honest and racing well. He’s also race fit and can find a position on speed. (11) Fluent chased some very good ones last prep including Reserve Bank and Gallant Son in a Redelva Stakes, when only beaten a tick over 2 lengths. Runs to something like that here and she’s in the money, even though trials could have been better. (6) Shamateur won his maiden well here at this distance and then followed that up with a strong win at Swan Hill during the carnival. Happy to forgive the Caulfield run at end of prep and think fresh here could run a bold race.
Selections:
(15) Bridgeitall
(5) Lake Forest
(11) Fluent
(6) Shamateur
Suggested Bet: Bridgeitall (Each-Way)
Race 6
Loved what (11) Scillato was able to achieve in her first preparation at the races winning her first three races and graduating to Saturday grade with a win at Flemington. She was very good in the Typhoon Tracy behind Clean Energy and then probably had enough by the time she went to Adelaide. Thought her recent jump outs have been encouraging and feel this is the right race to kick off in. Feel with a bigger stable & jockey she would be much shorter in the market than what she is. (1) Proved has come back in good order based on her jump outs and was another who showed real talent last prep. Be no surprise to see her lift again this preparation. (7) Let’sthefacemusic can mix his form but the best of him is genuine Saturday grade and he’s another who has jumped out well this prep. (3) Harry’s Yacht may want further now he’s been out in distance in a campaign but is in a top stable and has raced well at this shorter trip in the past. New acquisition to the David Noonan yard (4) Veloce Carro is another with good ability on his day, would be no shock to see him run a bold race fresh with gun rider Nash Rawiller on. Deep, deep race.
Selections:
(11) Scillato
(1) Proved
(7) Let’sthefacemusic
(3) Harry’s Yacht
Suggested Bet: Scillato (Win).
Race 7
Multiple Group 1 winner Arapaho featuring in the Bendigo Cup sees most of the key players here on the minimum weight with 54kgs. Found this a tough race to dissect from a tipping perspective but thought the two horses ready to win are (7) Don Diego De Vega and (6) Quietness. The runs of Don Diego De Vega lately have been OK but he’s had things against, notably last start when way too far back in the St Leger which was run at a very weak tempo, and he had a big mid race squeeze there whilst picking up late. Think he really improves here with more pace in the race and being perhaps at peak fitness. The key line here is he beat Quietness in the Grafton Cup last prep at this distance range. No knocks on her, she’s going well this prep and looks set to peak going to 2400m out of a nice closing run in the Coongy. (3) Interpretation is the real knock out runner, he won this race two years ago and then ran a blinder in a Melbourne Cup. Been off his game in three runs back this prep but gets blinkers on and is reunited with Teo Nugent who has got plenty out of him in the past. (11) God’s Window brings different form lines through Sydney benchmark races but looks suited up to 2400m and has the Waller polish.
Selections:
(7) Don Diego De Vega
(6) Quietness
(3) Interpretation
(11) God’s Window
Suggested Bet: Don Diego De Vega (Win) and Quietness (Win).
Race 8
Nash Rawiller comes to Bendigo (his hometown, growing up) for three rides on Cup Day and this looks by far the best of them in (2) Fear No Evil. This horse put up some strong performances last prep when winning at Warwick Farm and Pakenham plus running 3rd in the Mornington Guineas to Movin Out. He’s trialled well for this and love the fact that Rawiller is booked given he’s such a great rider of horses who roll forward. Think he leads here and takes a power of beating, really keen on his chances. (10) Ahha Ahha has shown above average talent in her last prep also and has a good turn of foot, another who has trialled reasonably well for her first up assignment, but was worried she may spot Fear No Evil too big a head start. (4) Pentle Bay brings in strong form from the UK being a Listed placegetter, he is first up off a long layoff but respect his talent and thought his most recent jump out was encouraging. No knocks on (16) Swift Circle who is racing well and race fit.
Selections:
(2) Fear No Evil
(10) Ahha Ahha
(4) Pentle Bay
(16) Swfit Circle
Suggested Bet: Fear No Evil (Win)
Race 9
Race 9
Another terrific heat of the Melbourne Cup Country Series with a host of quality engaged. Leant the way of (11) Big Sexy, who was brilliant on return at Hamilton on Cup Day there when racing away late for a stylish victory, albeit a little soft on the clock. Think he may improve here 2nd up at 1400m and he maps for a good run on speed with in form jockey John Allen. He’s tight enough in the market at $2.70 odd but expect he drifts from that quote given he didn’t smash the clock last start overall, feel $3+ is a fair price. (1) Celsius Star was an improved run last start at Caulfield when leading. He’s hard fit now and could run a bold race on speed here at odds. (3) Willmott is humming at the jump outs and has the ratings on his day to win a race of this standard. Expecting a big run here first up at a target race for him. Could make a case for plenty of others like (4) Russian Meteor (big from the tail latest), (13) Guerite (heavily supported and best of on-pacers last time) and (14) Powerbound (back, wide latest and kept coming late).
Selections:
(11) Big Sexy
(1) Celsius Star
(3) Willmott
(4) Russian Meteor
Suggested Bet: Big Sexy (Win), Celsius Star (Win) and Wilmott (Win)
