Turf Talk:
- Rail out 9m having been 5m at the most recent meeting. Last time it was in this position was October 14 where it was an edge to be on speed.
- Track an improving Soft 5, expect it to get to a Good 4.
- Light south westerly winds won’t impact racing.
Race 1
Big Sister Ava looks very short coming out of a weak maiden on debut.
Like how Tupac has trialled up going into this second campaign. He raced without luck but showed talent last time in. Get blinkers on for the first time and going straight to the mile is a positive. Drawn for a good run from gate four, expect him to prove mighty hard to beat.
Four Candles looks the danger provided he can back up off that very heavy track run at Pakenham first up. Track was rated a soft 7, but it was a heavy 10+. He was trapped deep and got shuffled back on the home turn before working home strongly at 1400m. The mile suits, just needs to iron out his manners.
Suggested bet: Backing Tupac, smaller on Four Candles.
Race 5
This isn’t an overly strong fillies and mares BM62.
Carleen Hefel is 2/2 on Bellalique and she jumps back in the saddle for the first time since the pair won at this track three starts back. Since then, this mare went to Gawler and struck unsuitably soft ground and then got way too far back around Ararat before ripping home the day’s best last 600/400/200m splits of the meeting – it was a big run vs stronger opposition. The form guide is misleading as to how this mare is going. Hefel has been able to get her out of the gates well each time she has ridden, which is important as she can miss the kick – gate one is ideal. The other key is firm ground, all her best form is on good decks – which she gets today. The end of 1400m is some query but at $19, happy to find out.
Always had time for Titahi Bay and think she can go on with it after her maiden win last time out. She was five-weeks between runs there second-up and should still have fitness improvement to come. The key here is the Mark Walker stable have hit some form after a fairly moderate run. She gets every chance from gate three with Micky Dee in the saddle.
Suggested bet: Backing Bellalique ($19)/Titahi Bay ($7).
Race 6
Not sure how they beat Frosted In Time. He has shown talent from his early jump-outs but put it together on the track last start with a 9L maiden win at Kilmore. The margin wasn’t the impressive thing – he beat an average field – but he smashed the clock in doing so. Think he will settle just off Durham Legacy here and enjoy a soft run. Provided he doesn’t massively regress from that second-up win he should justify his quote.
Suggested bet: Backing Frosted In Time at black figures.
Race 7
Apprentices only race.
Think Rosa Aotearoa leads and controls here. Cherrabah and Infinite Matrix next in line.
Might have it wrong but think Rosa Aotearoa should be favourite ahead of Altermantum. He has had two starts for Reece Goodwin and they have both been excellent. He and Bajaria spaced their rivals at Sale two back before Rosa Aotearoa belted his rivals in slick time at Mornington last start. He’s on an upward spiral and provided the apprentices don’t overdo it, Cartwright can control the speed and prove mighty hard to run down.
Altermatum has talent, just she also struggles to win. Look, this is the easiest race she’s contested in some time and she gets back to her home track, where she recorded he sole victory – which are both positives. However, she’s very short at $2.05 and is going to spot Rose Aotearoa a fair headstart.
Cherrabah has talent and she could be the big improver with a perfect map.
Suggested bet: Backing Rose Aotearoa
