Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 3 No.2 Chokuto
Next best: Race 4 No.6 Storm Season
Turf talk:
- Racing is on the Heath track – the inner circuit at Caulfield.
- Races out of the sprint are similar to the main course: long run down the railway side into one home bend.
- The track has raced very well so far this season.
Race 1:
(8) Wolfoffitroystreet was heavily supported on debut at Echuca and started inside 3/1 in town a fortnight ago. Breeding and figures suggest a mile is what he’s looking for now, and he’s a deserving favourite.
(10) Jenni Bassett, Maher’s second string, has been well backed since markets opened and must be respected. Although I can’t see her starting shorter than the current 3/1, and would expect her to ease until jump time.
(3) Icaro seems appropriately priced, having performed well in two decently strong maidens in his last two starts, but fits in nicely as the third option to the two Maher runners.
(5) Melek has trialled reasonably and will appreciate Craig Williams.
No strong opinion, but $2.80 Wolfoffitroystreet would get me involved.
Selections:
(8) Wolfoffitroystreet
(10) Jenni Bassett
(3) Icaro
(5) Melek
Suggested Bet: Wolfoffitroystreet if $2.80
Race 2:
(4) Job Done broke his maiden dynamically and then started $3.65 BSP against strong company; trials suggest he’s come back well.
(7) Espana won sharply over 1000m at The Heath and is best suited to tight tracks and anaerobic trips.
(11) Satin Diva was rolled as a deep odds-on chance on debut but rebounded at start two; capable, though six furlongs may be her ultimate sweet spot.
Selections:
(4) Job Done
(7) Espana
(11) Satin Diva
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(2) Chokuto has a profile I’m immediately drawn to. He finished quickly over 1200 metres in a strong form race on debut, did the same over 1400 metres at start two and then ran into one last start over a mile. Having shown the capacity to lead previously, Brown will position him closer to the pace from barrier one and with all things going well, I think he’ll win. $1.90 is where I’ve landed, and I am happy to take the $2.20 currently available
(8) Certainly Quiet rattled home last start in a slowly run race and has been well supported early but likely drifts back from the draw.
(4) Island Boy and (5) Signoretti are next best.
Selections:
(2) Chokuto
(8) Certainly Quiet
(4) Island Boy
(5) Signoretti
Suggested Bet: Chokuto (Best Bet)
Race 4:
(6) Storm Season announced herself winning at start two with the fastest late splits of the meeting. She didn’t progress last prep despite market expectations, but her Kembla resumption suggests she’s ready to go on with it.
(9) Divine Thoughts owns ratings that will keep the favourite honest, but the price looks right.
(4) Hola Amigos is reliable in this grade, while (2) Crown Crusher is the one most likely to outrun his market.
Selections:
(6) Storm Season
(9) Divine Thoughts
(4) Hola Amigos
(2) Crown Crusher
Suggested Bet: Storm Season (Next Best)
Race 5:
(2) Pick ‘N’ Mix is very fast and 1000m at The Heath is close to perfect. Trialled as expected and is a deserving favourite.
(6) Runlikenencryption is talented, raced well in town last prep and gets a key jockey upgrade.
(8) Egertonis a mare that I believe the market constantly overrates, so it’ll be interesting to see what it does with it here. I thought she was poor last start, but I can’t discount her chances.
(3) Cavallo Rampante wasn’t fully tested last outing and has form to be competitive.
Selections:
(2) Pick ‘N’ Mix
(6) Runlikenencryption
(8) Egerton
(3) Cavallo Rampante
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Another race lacking appeal.
(11) Hustle In Heels has Jamie Mott to offset a wide gate and holds the strongest winning chance.
(8) Miss Altair has been below her best in two runs but improves out to six furlongs.
(12) Grinzinger Pod was inexplicably opened at $18 and correctly backed — awkward draw but Williams helps.
(6) Untapped can improve.
Selections:
(11) Hustle In Heels
(8) Miss Altair
(12) Grinzinger Pod
(6) Untapped
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
(3) Touchdown won comprehensively over a mile at The Heath to break his maiden, making amends for a poor ride prior. Has been strongly supported since markets opened and justifiably so. $1.80 feels close to right and even money would be enough to bet.
(2) Scintillante has the SA Derby placing but was comfortably handled by Touchdown last start; could turn the tables, but only with ideal settling position.
(4) Fiorenot finished ahead of Scintillante last time but maps to go back from a wide draw, making things tricky.
(14) Blue Cowboy can lead if he takes his place.
Selections:
(3) Touchdown
(2) Scintillante
(4) Fiorenot
(14) Blue Cowboy
Suggested Bet: Touchdown only if $2.00 available
Race 8:
A very difficult closer.
(1) Empire Of Pain looks opposable at the current price, though still the most likely winner in an even race.
(10) Tempranillo was backed to beat him last start and although she couldn’t, her run two back makes her a genuine chance at a bigger price.
(8) Pharoah’s Glory and (4) On Broadway are not hopeless in a thin race. Impossible to bet with confidence.
Selections:
(1) Empire Of Pain
(10) Tempranillo
(8) Pharoah’s Glory
(4) On Broadway
Suggested Bet: No bet
