Summary of best bets:
Two-bet play: Race 8 Backing No.2 Olive Baguette and No.10 Diamond Indaruf
Value bet: Race 2 No.14 Big Star
Turf Talk
- Rail back to the true having been out 5m and 8m at the most recent two meetings.
- True rail can certainly advantage those on speed and that’s how I’ll be attacking the day to start.
- Mornington has a short home straight, but its an uphill run that can bring some horses undone.
Race 2
Good maiden this. Big Star looks over the odds at $12. She struck two heavy tracks at her only two runs last campaign but was far from disgraced in two handy 2yo races. She has trialled like a bomb leading into this campaign and think rail true at Mornington/Meech up/like leading is a great recipe for this Ben Brisbourne-trained filly. There’s a bit of speed in the race but Big Star is probably the quickest early of the lot – she will take catching.
Suggested bet: Backing Big Star E/W
Race 3
Like Maynard here. He trialled well prior to his debut at Pakenham but reportedly paraded like a horse that would benefit from the run. He was quite fresh and keen, but stuck on well enough. Crossover nose band goes on here and Luke Currie has now had a sit on him, which is a plus. This isn’t an overly strong maiden and from gate three he gets a gun run in the race.
Suggested bet: Backing Maynard
Race 4
Keen on Kadesh making her debut here. She has had two jump-outs at Pakenham this campaign and moved well in each. She won the latest impressively, careering away from her rivals over the final furlong. Draws ideal here in gate four, can settle in the first couple in running, and 1200m looks an ideal kick off point. This isn’t an overly strong maiden to make her debut.
The current favourite, Dubai Adventure, has shown some talent in trials and he hails from a strong stable. That said, he’s drawn poorly and I suspect he will be in the second half of the field, spotting Kadesh a decent start.
Suggested bet: I have Kadesh marked favourite and think she will trim up from the $3.80 on offer.
Race 8
Asmita brings good form to this but she’s got a very sticky map and I am happy to work around her at the shorts.
Olive Baguette has also shown very good talent for Alex Rae and the ratings through his last campaign are strong enough to win this. He bolted in to win his maiden at this track and trip and again draws to get a lovely run up near the speed. Jump-outs have been good; think he can make a winning start to his campaign.
Diamond Indaruf has also jumped-out well. He’s drawn out a touch, but think he will push forward and should be able to get up on speed without working too much. He’s a consistent galloper that will appreciate the drop in grade after tackling stronger company last campaign.
Suggested bet: Backing Olive Baguette/Diamon Indaruf
