Good Will Hunting: Ballarat Cup Day

Kingswood had the better of Saint George in a stirring Cup Day finish over nine furlongs. The pair were side by side idling past the 300 metres, but Kingswood proved just that touch sharper in the late-speed test.

Beware the grey ⚡️

KINGSWOOD comes from the back to take out the Kirin Ichiban Plate.

🎥 @wwos | #MelbourneCup | #MelbCupCarnival pic.twitter.com/bX3WrBWWVb

— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) November 4, 2025

His greatest asset is the ability to hold a prominent position over nine to ten furlongs and then use his turn of foot to break open a race, precisely what he produced in the Melbourne Cup Day Plate. His career peak came in the Coongy, where he dictated a slowly run race and unleashed a sprint his opposition couldn’t match. Saturday shapes similarly, albeit with more pace on paper than the Coongy of last year. His chances are obvious; he beat Saint George last start, maps to sit close to a pace that seemingly won’t be too strong, and holds a performance rating that is within the likely standard of winning this race.

Saint George has been a sectional star in two runs this preparation, flashing home in the Seymour Cup before narrowly missing Kingswood on Cup Day. With little speed on paper and having drawn barrier fifteen, he risks being dragged back to the rear of the field, yet he has shown he can hold a prominent position when asked, and should use that early speed; it’s not as if he lacks it. If I had confidence that Saturday’s race would be genuinely run, and that he wouldn’t be last at the three-furlong pole, I’d mark him inside 3/1 and bet accordingly.

Air Assault had no luck in the Cranbourne Cup, somehow ending up behind Sabaj as they turned for home. He draws inside again and, while he can sustain strong speeds from the front, he isn’t electric from the gates, so Holder will need to be urgent early. A strongly run 2000-metre contest might stretch him; he’d get it, but he isn’t necessarily looking for it, so a slower than standard pace should theoretically be to his advantage. Although, by the same token, his strength lies in maintaining a strong speed rather than quickening off a slow one, leaving him in a tactical bind. Still, his last two ratings are hard to ignore. He’s a difficult runner to assess, but I eventually landed on $6.50, which is his current price.

Poison Chalice was well backed in last Saturday’s Eclipse Stakes and fronts up again quickly. He was awfully poor, controlling a slow tempo before raising the white flag soon after straightening. He’s been supported again in early markets, and I can’t work out why. Yes, he picks up one of Australia’s elite riders in Damian Lane, but having him inside 10/1 after such an abysmal performance doesn’t make sense to me. He would need to produce a dramatic turnaround in form, and on such short notice, I don’t believe he can.

Shaiyhar appeals as a runner at big odds. He’s produced ratings strong enough for a race of this depth, and his third earlier in the year, behind Middle Earth and Duke De Sessa, reads well. Although he’s drawn wide and is unlikely to be able to capitalise if the pace proves sedentary.

Will’s rated prices vs bet365 (odds correct as at 11am, 5/12/25).