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What to make of Strictly Business' first up run on Saturday?

What to make of Strictly Business' first up run on Saturday?

Track bias chaos at Caulfield: Who to Buy, Hold and Sell from William Reid Day

The Caulfield track comes under scrutiny for a second straight week, with strong lane bias shaping results, while Betsy identifies the key blackbookers and calls out a PR misstep from the MRC.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
March 22, 2026
in News
Reading Time: 6 mins read
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Back-to-back weeks, the Caulfield track has missed the mark.

It’s disappointing to be saying it again, but at Betsy we call it as we see it.

The track simply wasn’t up to scratch. The fence was quicksand. Winners came in lanes: 6,4,6,6,8,7,6,6,8,7 and plenty of horses might as well have stayed at home. Those lanes were in the fast range in the straight, the rest of the track was not.

The incentive to lead and run along at a reasonable clip was taken away and the result was several slowly run, messy affairs. Moisture in certain parts of the track may also have contributed to those slow times to the 800-600m mark.

I stated last week the MRC track team has plenty of credits in the bank, and that’s still the case. The track has raced brilliantly for over a year now and I’d back them to get it right.

However, the MRC PR team let the track team down with a bizarre statement. But more on that later.

The Melbourne Autumn Carnival comes to a close next week with the Group 1 Australian Cup, but the racing continues and a stuffed blackbook is needed.

Everyone saw the run of Angel Capital, he’s crying out for 1400m, so I won’t point out the obvious.

Here is who I am buying, selling and holding from William Reid Stakes Day.

 

A special mention…

Cindy Alderson and Logan Bates

Jigsaw is a super talented horse. Always has been, he’s just had his ups and downs throughout his career. He beat Artorius on debut in a Geelong maiden back in January 2021, but it took him a little longer to win his first Australian Group 1!

The team have done a remarkable job with Jigsaw this campaign. His last two wins prior to Saturday were both spaced, but he added another string to his bow winning on a seven-day back up, and a Group 1 at that! Bates rides him so well, getting him into a rhythm ensuring his tactical speed doesn’t go to waste.

He’s gone from running fourth in a BM100 at the start of the campaign to winning Group 1’s on either side of the Tasman, something not many would’ve had on their bingo card. A genuine feelgood story.

 

Buy

Dancing Storm (Race 1)
He raced in the inferior ground throughout and was held up for much of the straight, seemingly with plenty more to offer. Wouldn’t have won but should’ve finished much closer. Can find a suitable race in Melbourne in coming weeks, or even head back to SA and eye off something there.

KA YING…cheer?!

Not as dominant as that other Ka Ying, but he’s won three in a row!@lindsayparkrace pic.twitter.com/uNoOEYuL23

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 21, 2026

Give Me Space (Race 5)
This was her second run for the Hayes yard after moving south from Queensland and she was cheeky good performance. Ran out of room the last 100m when building momentum. Looks ideally suited to 1400m next start.

Caulfield Race 5 | Meridius@KennewellRacing‘s 6YO gelding powers home down the outside to take out a thrilling victory first-up 🙌

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/saKv02agMh

— Racing.com (@Racing) March 21, 2026

Wouldn’t drop off Verdoux, either. Layed in badly over the concluding stages, rolling itself back into the inferior ground. If he goes straight, he wins. If Mark Zahra sticks to the whip rules, he probably wins too!

 

Vivid Sun (Race 6)
Point Barrow was obviously good in winning but looking around her for the blackbookers.

Vivid Sun was a monster run first up. Home 22.26/11.30 secs after getting a mile out of her ground. She is capable of settling much handier in her races and a step to 1400m next start would be ideal.

 

Hold

Strictly Business (Race 4)
Visually looked plain first up, but she had trialled like she was going to need the run and she raced in quicksand throughout. Was most taken with her work past the post and I suspect once she gets to 2000m+ she will be awfully hard to hold out again. The run was better than it looked.

Alexandra Stakes | Getta Good Feeling@DOBrienRacing‘s electric 3YO filly makes it back-to-back wins with @TheBeeegan on board 🤩

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/Vo2Pr8eBUA

— Racing.com (@Racing) March 21, 2026

 

Bassett Babe (Race 6)
Touched on the race earlier. Bassett Babe was up on speed and layed into the inferior ground over the concluding stages. Her run was better than it may have appeared and if you roll the vision past the post she took a lot of pulling up. Can bounce back to the winner’s circle on a fair deck.

Another stakes win for Point Barrow, she’s a little beauty 💙💚@danielstack33 @FreedmanRacing pic.twitter.com/Hs5rgGmn2g

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 21, 2026

Astral Flame (Race 7)
A victim of track pattern. They went far too slow on her (15.4L below standard to the 800m mark) which took away her weapon: rolling along at a good gallop. Treasurethe Moment sprinted home in 22.18 secs (second best of the meeting), a speed Astral Flame simply can’t compete with. She probably wouldn’t have won either way, but with a much stronger early tempo and on an even track, Astral Flame would’ve been much harder to run down.

Suntora and On Display were both ripping runs in the race.

 

Planet Red (Race 9)
Mark Zahra has ridden countless unbelievable rides in his career, but this is one I’d imagine he’d quickly want to forget. Planet Red jumped well and put himself comfortably into the first couple early but he was then inexplicably dragged all the way back to last, three wide without cover to boot. He was then forced to make his run on the inferior ground from last week and was barely tested up the straight. May not have won either way, but had a torrid run in transit.

Sell

MRC’s handling of the track debacle
Everyone makes mistakes. It’s part of life. Track management is a tough and thankless gig and Sam Bennetts has presented Caulfield in brilliant condition for the majority of his tenure.

It’s also important to own mistakes. People respect it and they quickly move on from an issue.

So, I was mighty surprised by the MRC PR team providing Betsy a statement on Sunday night suggesting it was “comfortable” with how the track was prepared on Saturday.

If they are comfortable with that, they need to rethink how they treat punters and participants.

The best course of action was to put their hand up, own the fact the track hasn’t lived up to the MRC’s very high standards the past two weeks and state that they will work tirelessly to ensure it’s in tip-top shape for the next meeting on April 4.

Simply own the outcome and everyone quickly moves on. The resultant statement was a PR fail.

Tags: Australian racingBetsy racingBlackbookersCaulfield.horse racing analysisMRCpuntingracing reviewTrack biasWilliam Reid Stakes
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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