Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 #3 Zuleika (win) – Love the stride and looks a real stayer.
Race 4 #5 Fashionable (place $4)- Has class, 3rd up, loses apprentice for senior and up in trip. All of which are big positives for this horse.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 2.5m
- Great day to bet on a good track
- Weather forecast is good and surface should be perfect.
- Fair rail placement.
Key stats:
- Boris Thornton has won 6 of his last 29 rides. More importantly he has three rides today and all of them are genuine chances at e/w odds. Beware of Boris.
- Kelly Schweida is going as well as any trainer up here. 7 winners from the last 19 he has saddled up. Has a couple of leading hopes again here.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Well they backed (1) Unloading at big odds and got the lot on debut, well done. Must have been showing plenty and will only be better for the run. Just needs a good ride from the gate.
(2) Ever So Ready was runner up that day and meets the winner 2kg better off. I’m sure this horse needed the run and from a good gate can get much closer today.
(7) Magritte showed plenty without winning last prep. The recent trial was good and gets Boris on top. If they run along hard up front she has the ability to go right over the top late.
(9) Fearless Win and (10) Phere The Warrego ran well last prep but don’t like their gates in this.
Selections:
(7) Magritte
(2) Ever So Ready
(1) Unloading
(10) Phere The Warrego
Suggested Bet: e/w (7) Magritte
Race 2:
Very even race and smartest ride might win it as there is not much tempo.
Was all over (1) Weigall Tiger at decent odds last start and he looked home for all money until getting nailed 25m out. Claim helps here, will look the winner again at some stage.
(3) Ramp It Up has class and rock hard fit from recent racing. Beaten by one on the way up last start but a gap back to the 3rd horse was a good sign. Right in this.
(4) Eclair Awesome is going really well but just not one of mine and I struggle to catch it’s day.
(8) Irama might be in Healey’s name but real Currie play on her here. Get the light weight, claim on it and go for home early. Maybe they are the speed and play catch me if you can.
Selections:
(3) Ramp It Up
(1) Weigall Tiger
(4) Eclair Awesome
(8) Irama
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
Had (7) Sir Winnie on top last start but the odds-on quote as they jumped was ridiculous. He got the job done but it was just a win, nothing special. Has won 3 of 6 so has upside and can improve again here and gets favours on speed.
(6) Ready For The Trip was plain early this prep but improved last start and ready to show very best now. Was good last prep and might have just needed those runs early this prep.
(13) Phenom got a bit too far back but attacked the line last start behind Castillian who is flying. Draws the inside gate to maybe sit a little closer and a winning hope for sure.
(11) Captain Eagle is no star but gets favours being on a slow tempo here. Gave a kick last start and a similar run would go close.
Everything says (8) So You Are will need the run but he is the class runner. Has run in multiple blacktype races but over further.
Selections:
(13) Phenom
(7) Sir Winnie
(11) Captain Eagle
(8) So You Are
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
The map has me stumped and drops the confidence a bit.
This (3) Zuleika looks a genuine stayer in the making. Like the way he flattens out and holds his gallop. Strong horse and looks well placed up here over the carnival.
Look for big improvement from (5) Fashionable. The apprentice lost sight of the bunny last start and she needed the run. Gets a senior on, inside gate and out to this trip is what she is after.
(4) Go Maro is bred to sprint which is a worry but was strong at the end of the mile last start and does have ability.
(2) Falcon Lair is the consistent horse who is rock hard fit and in a good stable. Looks to have more to come this prep.
(7) Castello Grande is one I have always liked and is set to show best 4th up even though this is harder.
Selections:
(3) Zuleika
(5) Fashionable
(2) Falcon Lair
(7) Castello Grande
(4) Go Maro
Suggested Bet: Win bet (3) Zuleika. Smaller #5 Fashionable place bet.
Race 5:
Let’s just start with (1) Icarian Dream. She is one I have fallen for many times as she always looks well placed. Yes, she has been in decent races but just doesn’t win anymore. Good gate, weaker race and looks well placed yet again…. One more chance?
(3) Smexy is a good one and the last run was OK. Just a little soft through the line and may have needed it. Feel she may need one more but should improve here.
(4) Lonesome Soul has been good in town many times but has only won 2 of 13. One for exotics but another that finds one better.
Skinny race that drops away quickly.
Selections:
(1) Icarian Dream
(3) Smexy
(4) Lonesome Soul
(9) I’lltellyoutonight
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
I got (8) Savagery Vibe wrong and she is a better horse than I thought. Been very good this prep and has been strong late. Maybe the 1350m is what she is after.
Not really a (2) Hell To Pay man but gets the gun run, gets a claim and won this track/trip last start.
(9) Celestial Blaze has been great but I thought he’d be going up in trip and not back? Draws to get a good run so maybe watch the market with him.
Everything went right for (18) Grammar Lad last start over this track/trip in a CL3. From the gate there is no reason that doesn’t happen again. He is no star but in career best form and looks hard to beat.
Not sure how much (11) Great Aspirations has to give but is consistent and can be around the money for trifecta players. Fresh run was good.
(16) Lunaite is limited but wasn’t far off Scripted last start and does draw to get the perfect run in transit.
Selections:
(18) Grammar Lad
(8) Savagery Vibe
(9) Celestial Blaze
(2) Hell To Pay
Suggested Bet: no bet
Race 7:
Gates very important over this trip with a short run to the corner.
(2) Flying Destiny looks to get a run just off the hot speed and the good gate is worth plenty. Has been good all prep and a last start winner when best L400m and 200m of the race. Everything looks good other than the 62kg.
(3) Ouroboros has a great record (14:4:5:2). Gate 1 is perfect, has the speed to lead or let one cross. 3kg claim is OK as it will be on speed, don’t like apprentices on back markers. Thought trial was good without being great.
(16) Without Parallel has won 4 of 6 and won both trials leading into this. Looks a better horse on wet ground but has won on the dry so don’t sell her short. Hard to catch with the feather weight.
I’m a bit of a sucker for (12) First Mission. Keep waiting for him to put it together and win a few in a row. Average last start but the blinkers come off here and can be around the money somewhere.
(13) Shot Of Whiskey put in an outstanding trial behind Uncommon James. Always puts himself in the race but can be a little soft late. Feel this is the right race if they get to the right spot early.
Taking a few in the quaddie!
Selections:
(16) Without Parallel
(3) Ouroboros
(2) Flying Destiny
(12) First Mission
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8:
Very interesting race to finish the day.
(2) Cote Atlantique is a very handy one. 4th in a G3 Sandown Stakes, winner of the Seymour Cup and 3rd in a Sale Cup. Comes here off a 2nd placing in a G3 in NZ and looks set for a decent carnival in Qld. Gate 13 not ideal but there is not much speed and might grab the tail of Castillian.
(9) Castillian lacks a little class but has made the most of races run to suit lately. Gets another race where he can go forward on a slowish tempo. Will give a kick and look the winner.
(15) Margot’s Deel is one I have always had time for and she still has upside. Hasn’t missed a place on this track from four runs and the fresh run was excellent over an unsuitable trip. Light weight is great and just has to overcome a horrible gate for a get back horse.
I can never catch (7) Kronenbourg but the trial have been good and is one who can push forward and even lead if they want. Gollan loves landing 1-2 in the run and dictating the speed, that’s the likely scenario here, so he goes in everything.
How do you leave (4) Walsh Bay out? A walking ATM for the owners with a great record (18:9:1:2). If she is in the finish, she usually wins. She had too much racing in my opinion last prep but if she comes back the same horse, she can win.
It’s probably a barrier trial for (1) Miss Joelene but she is the class runner and takes a 3kg claim.
Selections:
(2) Cote Atlantique
(9) Castillian
(15) Margot’s Deel
(4) Walsh Bay
Suggested Bets: Watching on
