Many fancied My Gladiola to topple her fellow well-credentialled three-year-old, Tentyris, in the Newmarket Handicap, and with good reason. She was sensational in the Lightning Stakes, having the measure of all but the country’s premier sprinter. Since then, the form has eventuated handsomely: Marhoona won the Galaxy, Baraqiel ran creditably as ever in the William Reid, and Beiwacht filled the placings behind Joliestar in the Canterbury Stakes thereafter. All of which is to say she dismantled a quality sprint field and went down only to the best colt of his generation.
The Newmarket was a mess, the pace was muddled, there was a decisive advantage to inside draws, and she was never given a run at them. It is better off forgotten.
Put a line through it, and her runs in the Danehill, the Coolmore or the Lightning make her a dominant favourite on Saturday.
Legacy Bound ran third to her in the Coolmore, but I’ve long suspected he’s a horse that will be better suited over further than six furlongs, let alone five-and-a-half. Even first up, he recorded the third-quickest split of the race between the four-and two-furlong markers, but he overhauled a far softer lot with a sustained gallop rather than explosive acceleration.
Once the pace is applied, My Gladiola should have the superior acceleration.
Educated has been excellent in three starts, winning well over this course and distance last time, but she beat an ordinary bunch of three-year-old fillies. With a strong speed, she had every chance to light up the clock, but managed only the meeting’s 71st-quickest final
400 metres. There’s a chasm between running second in the Lightning Stakes and starting 7/2 in the Newmarket, versus accounting for Thanks Gorgeous and Star Of Omaha. She’s a nice filly, but 3/1 in places is insane.
Stoli Bolli (Race 4 No.46) went winless in seven runs last campaign; the market expected ~2.27 wins from him over that stretch, so punters were far from impressed. Duly, he’s copped the tag of a horse that doesn’t want to win. I don’t believe that crap, though, and he’s an excellent chance to make a winning return.
The Hayes boys would be the first to admit last preparation was poorly thought through. Resuming over five at The Valley was a debacle, then second up, he was asked to sprint into the heat of the race, chasing Red Hot Nic, who had already torn clear on a day where every winner bar one settled in the first four. Instantly, he hadn’t been allowed to fire a shot in either of his fresh runs.
All four of his Flemington runs make him irresistibly appealing in a field mostly comprising horses destined for nothing more than this. If he reproduces his course form, he’ll take some stopping.
While the pace was strong last start, Litzdeel (Race 7 No.13 Litzdeel) was tremendous from the rear on a day when it was exceptionally difficult to make ground. She improves with distance, so third up over thirteen furlongs after two honestly run conditioning races, she’s primed to perform at her peak.
She has previously settled handily to the speed, which will be an advantage given that several of these will be going backwards once they reach the turn. She was second in a St Leger to the subsequent Adelaide Cup winner, a dominant SA Fillies Classic winner and an authoritative winner of the staying race on Cup Day. She thrives in an aerobic test. She is perfectly placed to at least match her established level and is capable of running to a new peak.
Paradise Storm was scintillating, winning the Auckland Cup in New Zealand, but that race fell to pieces behind him, and the time was not especially spectacular. It is not as straightforward as it seems, dropping back three furlongs, particularly given his Australian form prior to crossing the ditch was relatively plain.
Desert Hero improved on resumption but was still well held by Litzdeel and, on exposed evidence, likely needs another run before he can genuinely threaten her.
Will’s suggested bets:
Race 4 No.6 Stolli Bolli
Race 6 No.5 My Gladiola
Race 7 No.13 Litzdeel
