Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Golden Slipper using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race.
To learn more about Racelab, please click here.
In The Lab | Golden Slipper | Group 1 2yo 1200m
The track – unique features of Rosehill 1200m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True, Good 4, Soft 5-6 likely on the day
- On-pacers are advantage at Rosehill with a win strike rate of 11.9%
- Lane 1 is best from the 400m – WP with a S/R of 14.1% and 22.7% ROI
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a fast tempo with speed coming out wide from Closer To Free and Pembrey:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Anthony & Sam Freedman & Nash Rawiller are winning at 43.8% with a ROI of 141.5%
- Phillip Stokes & Chad Schofield have a ROI of 40.8% striking at 25%
- Bjorn Baker & Jason Collett boast an impressive 34.9% POT with a 26% S/R
- Jamie Melham is riding Closer To Free for the first time under race conditions
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Golden Slipper. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 22/3/25 | Marhoona 2F | 54.5kg | 0.1L | 99.7 |
| 23/3/24 | Lady Of Camelot 2F | 54.5kg | 0.1L | 100.5 |
| 18/3/23 | Shinzo 2C | 56.5kg | 2.5L | 102.0 |
| 19/3/22 | Fireburn 2F | 54.5kg | 2.4L | 102.0 |
| 27/3/21 | Stay Inside 2C | 56.5kg | 1.8L | 103.8 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Golden Slipper:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.
| Weight | Rating |
| 56.5kg | 101.5 |
| 54.4kg | 99.9 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
The verdict and betting strategy:
Capacity field in the Golden Slipper and speed will be solid from the outset. Closer To Free and Pembrey should settle 1-2 from their wide gates. It’s also worth noting that Closer To Free, Pembrey and Music Time paid a late entry fee of $150,000. Chayan was impressive winning the Reisling Stakes by 3L and will enjoy a fast tempo – deserves to be favourite. Closer To Free ran 2nd when favourite in the Blue Diamond and that form stacks up quite nicely here. He’s trialled since coming to Sydney and looks to have improved further. Stretan Ruler went huge two runs back when winning the Silver Slipper and wasn’t suited by the race shape last start. Pembrey has always shown plenty of potential and won at the track and distance last week. She can’t be ruled out either at odds.
Suggested Bet:
Closer To Free (WIN)
Stretan Ruler (WIN)
Pembrey (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
