Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 10 No.10 Inkaruna
- Next Best: Race 6 No.2 Autumn Boy
- Next Best: Race 4 No.2 Skyhook
- Bets Roughie: Race 3 No.7 Polymania
Race by race overview
Race 1
Wide open Midway to kick off proceedings here at Rosehill. Happy to put (2) Agita on top here, 1500m fresh is perfect and he does have a win on his CV first-up. (4) Bella Khadijah is up to this grade, second-up now, added fitness but needs luck from the draw. (5) Tenderize is thereabouts, the big tick for this galloper is the smart inside draw. (6) Titanium Miss comes off a strong last start win and maps well, the 3kg claim is ideal also. Tricky, tricky event. (8) My Phar Lady is next best.
Selections:
2 Agita
4 Bella Khadijah
5 Tenderize
6 Titanium Miss
8 My Phar Lady
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Cracking staying event early on in the program, solid enough speed expected up front. (8) Juju Kibo had to cart the field up to the tearaway leader last start in a Randwick 2000m contest. His fitness gave out late, peaks now fitness-wise, maps to get a suck run and can only improve up to 2400m. (1) Campaldino goes up 4kg off the strong last start win, he lapped up that fast tempo and is another who will eat up 2400m. (14) Mr Monaco was a dominant last start winner, the form will get a boost or bust with Bear On The Loose going around in the Albury Cup. The big query here is gate 14. I expect (7) Star Of India to bounce back in a big way here, good roughie.
Selections:
8 Juju Kibo
1 Campaldino
14 Mr Monaco
7 Star Of India
Suggested Bet: Juju Kibo WIN
Race 3
Smart edition of the Epona Stakes for the fillies and mares. (7) Polymania was as good as Pinito last start over the 1600m, exceptionally strong last sectionals and now maps superior. Her best figures came over 1900m+ last prep and she keeps gun Zac Lloyd in the saddle. (2) Pinito is the danger but the barrier is a big concern, you do have the world’s best in the saddle to offset it though. (6) Movin’ Out was again solid second-up, ready to step out in trip here and has a peak third-up feel about her. (5) Quietness was sneaky good fresh, another who is suited here up in trip but may want another run under her belt.
Selections:
7 Polymania
2 Pinito
6 Movin’ Out
5 Quietness
Suggested Bet: Polymania WIN
Race 4
One of the better betting races across the whole meeting. (2) Skyhook opened big odds ($5.00) and has been hammered into $4.00 in early markets. He was a dominant fresh winner last prep in the Rosebud before running third to Tempted and Beiwacht in the Run To The Rose – that’s A1 form. He maps an absolute treat fresh off some slick trials, cherry on top is the booking of Clark. (1) Hidden Motive is the danger, underrated galloper who will lead and find the rails, needs it dry and should get that. (3) Beadman will be hoping for the rain to hit, solid first-up but looks heavily hindered by the barrier. (8) Nashville Jack, Cafe Florian and Mareth all have chances but have sticky maps. In the mix.
Selections:
2 Skyhook
1 Hidden Motive
3 Beadman
8 Nashville Jack
Suggested Bet: Skyhook WIN
Race 5
A small but exciting edition of the G1 Ranvet, there may be only six runners but the speed map is as tactical as it comes. (4) Aeliana looks to be the big winner map-wise, with Alalcance and Lindermann likely to set a solid clip, her staying powers should come to the fore from the good draw. She’s simply come back a better horse this prep and looks set to peak. (1) Sir Delius wasn’t suited by the sit-and-sprint effort last start behind the Waller star duo, he’s a sharp second-up improver but may be looking for this run before peaking third-up. (2) Lindermann is as honest as the day is long, coming off Cardiac Arrhythmia last start and will bounce back. (5) Stefi Magnetica looks to fill the numbers, a sit-and-sprint brings her right into this.
Selections:
4 Aeliana
1 Sir Delius
2 Lindermann
5 Stefi Magnetica
Suggested Bet: Aeliana WIN
Race 6
Cracking Rosehill Guineas, G1 2000m contest for the boys. Plenty of chat around this race, it’s somewhat of a match race between (2) Autumn Boy and (1) Observer – I’m firmly in the camp of Autumn Boy. I’ve got no doubt he’ll run a strong 2000m off the back of a sectionally strong 1600m Guineas when beaten by a potential freak in Sheza Alibi. He maps perfectly to sit off Observer’s back and go bang at the 2000m. Observer brings inferior form but does get map favours up to 2000m which is his pet trip. He peaks fitness-wise but needs to find 1-2L off his recent form. (4) Green Spaces is a danger, steady building runs and now gets out in trip – looks set to peak on the right day. I’ll throw (6) Federalist in the mix, crazy to think this blueblood is still a maiden, a win wouldn’t shock.
Selections:
2 Autumn Boy
1 Observer
4 Green Spaces
6 Federalist
Suggested Bet: Autumn Boy WIN
Race 7
Impressive field for this year’s George Ryder Stakes. As all racing fans are, I’m keen to see this untapped mare (8) Autumn Glow back at the races again, she had a proper battle second-up with her stablemate Aeliana. Back to 1500m and has that Waller x JMac third-up peak rating feel. She maps a treat and has the race at her mercy. I think a genuine danger is the stablemate (10) Beiwacht, finally out to a suitable trip off a big effort last start. He maps to get a soft enough lead and could run them into the ground. (9) Lady Shenandoah gets a suck run on the fence, which may in fact be the play to be – she’s going terrific but needs to lift again. (2) Linebacker, Pericles and Gringotts can all improve further here, good place chances.
Selections:
8 Autumn Glow
10 Beiwacht
9 Lady Shenandoah
2 Linebacker
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
The main event – the richest 2YO contest in the world, the $5,000,000 Golden Slipper. I wish she drew slightly better but I’m sticking with the dominant Riesling Stakes winner (14) Chayan. She brings the right lead-up form (Riesling/Diamond), a smart last start SP and importantly will be strong at the end of what looks a brutally run 1200m contest. (12) Streisand again looks underrated here, faced the breeze three-wide in a Diamond and had the grit to kick on. She’ll land three-wide again but this time with a back to follow – could be even better. (5) Paradoxium is the best of the Sydney horses for me, solid win in the Todman and has plenty of improvement to come. His race will be won or lost in the first 200m. (3) Guest House has to go in the mix, should have finished much closer in the Diamond with luck. Gets a key jockey change with Lloyd aboard and draws well enough. Closer To Free and Stretan Ruler are next best, both winning chances.
Selections:
14 Chayan
12 Streisand
5 Paradoxium
3 Guest House
Suggested Bet: Chayan WIN
Race 9
The barrier draw has helped dissect this race, stacks of speed expected up front. Happy to put the Queensland visitor (14) Grafterburners on top. 50.5kg and draws well here in a field full of speed, lovely trials and brings slick Queensland form. (1) Briasa is no doubt the best horse in the race but he’s drawn awfully in barrier 14. He gives away fitness fresh and will likely drag back to near last or risk being caught wide. (5) Hedged has to go in the mix, racing in terrific form and should find the rails in run over the 1100m which is ideal. (4) Reserve Bank is the other map horse, slick fresh type, solid trial and will find the rails in run.
Selections:
14 Grafterburners
1 Briasa
5 Hedged
4 Reserve Bank
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 10
Cracking end to the program – Quality Birthday Card Stakes. (10) Inkaruna was a good thing beaten first-up behind Beadman, she brings a dominant ratings profile to this event and maps an absolute treat here with Clark in the saddle. Best of the day. (3) Catch The Glory is the danger, smart fresh galloper who is progressing with every prep. The inside draw should play well into her hands. (6) More Territories finds McDonald in the saddle and has to be a hope here, second-up and will look to run on from the gate. (4) Monte Supreme did enough fresh, smart mare with an electric turn of speed. Another solid place chance.
Selections:
10 Inkaruna
3 Catch The Glory
6 More Territories
4 Monte Supreme
Suggested Bet: Inkaruna WIN
