Turf Talk:
- First meeting at Mornington since New Year’s Day. Rail is 8m to protect the inside section for Mornington Cup Day.
- Tight turning track that naturally has an advantage to be on speed.
- Has raced very well the last 6-12 months, horses who build momentum down the side can make ground if they have enough talent.
- With light winds/drying weather, bonusing anything I like on speed, but will keep a close eye given the first meeting in some time.
Race 2
(2) Easy Red looks the horse to beat. Was right in the market on debut at Swan Hill when leading them up and just peaking late. Wasn’t the best day to be hard rails. Should find the front comfortably getting back to him home deck. Dylan Dunn jumps back in the saddle having ridden him in jump-outs prior to debut.
(5) Pol Rogeur probably sits leader’s back and is another getting onto his home deck. Has run OK in some moderate maidens, but this is no stronger.
Suggested bet: Got Easy Red fave ahead of Pol Rogeur so very happy to take the $3.20 on offer.
Race 3
(2) Head Capitalist brings the strongest form to this race. Went around in a decent maiden ay Kyneton last start: third has since won, runner up and sixth have since run second. Think she will put herself on speed without working too hard and that will give her a tactical edge on key rivals.
(3) La Velocita is that main danger. She was good at Pakenham last time out, getting home the third-best last 600m split of the meeting. She’s been slow to begin in each start to date so not expecting that to change here.
(4) Le Notre should’ve bolted in first up in a moderate race at Stony Creek but was pretty plain last start. Drawn awkward, but has the talent to win.
(6) Privateer will put herself on speed but she can be weak late. Not sure she should be favourite.
Suggested bet: Backing Head Capitalist, saving La Veolcita
Race 5
Stack of speed here which should suit (5) Affirmative Lad. He was slow out and held up at the top of the straight before producing the best last 200m split of the meeting at Ballarat fresh. Dylan Dean jumps aboard and claims 3kg here, the positive is he got him out of the stalls well in a jump-out prior to that fresh run, so hoping he can camp just in behind the speed. Think he will bs strong late while a few others are weakening.
(7) Marilyn’s Edge was very good first up and then may have worked a touch hard at Yarra Valley last time out. Best ratings make her the horse to beat here.
(3) Abovethefrostline always jumps out well and has again. Should press forward from the middle pin and give a sight.
(1) Auckland was heavily backed first up at Bairnsdale where he absorbed plenty of early pressure before being nabbed late by a horse that had a soft run on his back. Has won here before.
Suggested bet: Backing Affirmative Lad E/W
