How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced.
Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
Dave Pfundt’s assessment of how the track played:
“Winds were ~25 km/h and Westerly or thereabouts, and the track was officially a Slow 6. The times came out a Dead 5 – consistently faster than a Slow track. Visually, the track looked very tired. There was plenty of kickback, but it didn’t look to be wet, and the jockeys weren’t coming in with mud on their silks. Jockeys were pretty clearly avoiding the fence – even before the turn – and most winners enjoyed wider runs in transit and out past the middle in the straight. That said, I don’t think the inside was cast; it was just inferior, and so the runs of Tennessee Bound and Cosmic Crusader may be a little better than the numbers quoted. 5 of the 9 winners were in the top 2 by the 400m, but the other 4 winners all made up 7 or more positions from settling to win. All in all, it looked a reasonably fair (albeit tired) surface, and I’d be kind to horses that raced on the inside of the field next start without going overboard.”
Snapshot of how each race was run and won
Race 1: LD-S-8: +2.2L, LD-8-4: +1.1L, LD-4-F: +0.2L, WNR-4-F: +4.6L, @WFA: 94.6
Bletchingly Stakes Day opened with a statement, and it came from Custom, who dismantled a decent collection of mares.
Stopping the clock in 70.29 seconds over the Caulfield 1200 metres, she notably eclipsed the mark set by Cosmic Crusader in the Bletchingly Stakes itself some four hours later. Context is critical, though. Pace and track deterioration played their part, but even allowing for those variables, this performance was particularly significant. To run faster than the Group 3 that rated well itself, and to do so with such authority, indicates a mare trending well beyond this grade.
Caulfield Race 1 | Custom
The Godolphin filly DESCENDS on them to win the first race at Caulfield with authority 🔵💥
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/qXO6h0KR2T— Racing.com (@Racing) July 25, 2026
Competitive in Stakes company as an early three-year-old, her belonging at that level was never in doubt. She had always been on the precipice of converting good runs into wins, and now, with time and racing, she has developed into a filly turning mare capable of measuring up in stronger company.
Glasgow Lass is another well worth following. Her career has been interrupted with injury, but her three-year-old form in Western Australia reads well, and this first-up effort, closing well from the rear after a 70-day lay-off, indicates that she is where she needs to be. She’s a seven-and eight-furlong horse, and with natural improvement second and third-up, she’s one that punters can have confidence in over the next month or two.
Mystery ‘N’ Drama was better than the bare result. Stakes placed in the Angus Armanasco and a winner at a mile, she resumed with a quietly encouraging eighth. The run was better than the form card would suggest, and if the market dismisses her, there may be an opportunity for punters to capitalise later in the campaign.
Race 2: LD-S-8: +2.5L, LD-8-4: +2L, LD-4-F: -1.3L, WNR-4-F: +2.6L, @WFA: 88.2
The plunge is far from dead, and Nick Ryan reminded everyone of it.
Doubt Time firmed from as high as $41 into $9.90 on the exchange.
Post-race, Ryan pointed to the gelding’s stride length, around eight and a half metres, as a marker of his quality. While stride length can be misleading in isolation, given its sensitivity to track surface and pace, it remains valuable within a stable’s internal data framework.
Trainers have access to far more controllable data points than punters, who are left to judge them on race day alone.
DOUBT TIME ON THE LINE 🤯
What a debut from the Nick Ryan 2YO!@lukecartwrightt @nryanracing pic.twitter.com/H9txdJmXbG
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) July 25, 2026
What mattered on the day was the shape of the race. A fast lead speed set by Resolutely and Brazen Panda set it up for a closer, and Doubt Time capitalised, recording the second-fastest final furlong of the meeting. The weight-for-age rating of 88.2 aligns closely with recent two-year-old winners Riverina Lulu (89.3) and Angels Fury (88.4).
Stylistically, he’s a much different horse to those two, though.
This was a win of class alone over 1100 metres. In my view, seven and perhaps eight furlongs may be his optimal range in time. While the Caulfield Guineas may be ambitious, and I’m not suggesting that he can win it, he would not be entirely misplaced lining up in that race in three months’ time.
Resolutely, meanwhile, continues to knock on the door. A new peak here, but again denied. Three consecutive seconds, and a maiden win is imminent.
The race rated well and has the makings of a good form reference going forward.
Race 3: LD-S-8: -5L, LD-8-4: -1.3L, LD-4-F: +2.1L, WNR-4-F: +2.1L, @WFA: 92
Tennessee Bound remains unbeaten, though her margin for error is narrowing.
In a race devoid of pressure, the quinella controlled proceedings from the outset. Allowed to dictate, Tennessee Bound and Behaviour turned it into a two-horse contest, quickening sharply and putting the race to rest between the 400 and 200 metres.
There was a time when she appeared destined to develop into a top-class mare, particularly after her second win at Cranbourne. That trajectory now appears to have plateaued. She’s a very good mare; that’s indisputable, but how far does her talent extend? In my view, she’ll be confined to Group 3 races, and perhaps Group 2 races for mares.
At rising six, the scope for significant improvement is limited. She can win a Black-type race under the right conditions, but ratings would suggest that she’s found her level.
Race 4: LD-S-8: +3.6L, LD-8-4: +3.3L, LD-4-F: -6.2L, WNR-4-F: -6.1L, @WFA: 92.3
Prince Tycoon ran this field off their feet and clung on from the fast-finishing Afterburner. Beautiful Bevy, alongside Prince Tycoon, tore along to the 400 metres at seven lengths faster than standard, leaving the rest of the field chasing. They struggled to pick their feet up over the final furlong. Nighttime Star recorded the fastest closing section of the race, but in an awfully slow 12.24, after being detached from the field for the majority of the race and running the race most efficiently.
Prince Tycoon ran to the exact same rating he produced in the Creswick
21 days earlier, which remains his best figure. It would surprise me if he were able to improve on that for the remainder of this campaign, and again, he’ll need to translate it into open company from next week. I think he can, provided he is placed appropriately.
As for the rest of the field, there isn’t one runner in particular I’d be eager to follow. I’d suggest this group may need 21 days before they next race, given how taxing a test this was.
Race 5: LD-S-8: -5.4L, LD-8-4: +1.4L, LD-4-F: +0.8L, WNR-4-F: +0.9L, @WFA: 91.2
Race five was effectively decided before the field reached the first turn.
A slowly run first half-mile allowed Luke Cartwright to position First Chorus brilliantly behind Magnaspin, while the well-backed St Lawrence was left exposed, wide, coverless, and chasing. From there, the race unfolded exactly as the in-form mare’s connections would have scripted it.
Increasing the pace mid-race, Cartwright removed any chance for those toward the rear of the field to build into the race through cheap sectionals. It was a tactically astute ride, supported by a clear pre-race plan to utilise the mare’s light weight (51.5kg) and settle closer in a race devoid of speed besides Magnaspin.
The market identified that at the death of betting, crunching her into $2.30.
A plan well executed on all fronts, from everyone involved.
In terms of future assessment, little has changed. This was her golden opportunity for the campaign, and they got it right. She may not be so well placed next time. We haven’t learned anything new from her; she’s run to form.
Unlimited may be the one to follow, albeit with caution. His first-up run was sound, and he projects to peak third and fourth-up over 2000 metres. The concern is his rating; he may find himself burdened with weight in BM90 company. Still, he’s one to keep in mind as his preparation unfolds.
Race 6: LD-S-8: -2.8L, LD-8-4: +2.1L, LD-4-F: -1.2L, WNR-4-F: -1.2L, @WFA: 88.2
Again, pace dictated the outcome.
In this three-year-old staying contest, the first three to the 800-metre mark were the first three home. A dearth of intent to make the running handed the leading three control, and although the chasers lifted their pace from the 1000 metres, the damage was already done.
Those chasing were forced into early exertion and had come to the end of their run before they had even entered the straight.
No horse finished faster than standard over the final 200 metres.
This is not a group on the verge of immediate Saturday grade racing as four-year-olds. But, within BM64–BM70 grade, they’ll be competitive.
With most of the field rated between 65 and 70, the form should translate cleanly into that level. Saturday grade in open company, though, looks some way away.
Race 7: LD-S-8: -3.3L, LD-8-4: +0.5L, LD-4-F: +0.7L, WNR-4-F: +2.3L, @WFA: 98.2
“The big boy is back,” were Matt Hill’s words as Cosmic Crusader crossed the line in a Bletchingly Stakes that quickly turned into a procession. In the context of Bletchingly Stakes history, the race rated well, and while it may not have been the best we’ve seen from Cosmic Crusader, it was an excellent launching point for his spring campaign.
Six furlongs amongst this company was an obvious query beforehand, but he answered it convincingly, settling near the rear before pouring on the pressure between the 600 and 200 metres to break apart the field and win well.
The pace was slow. The Sir John Monash Stakes winner, Winnasedge, led them to the 600-metre mark at a pace that was just shy of four lengths slower than standard, and while he ran to something like his mark, he was quickly put in the shade by Cosmic Crusader’s acceleration.
The P.B. Lawrence looks there for the taking, and importantly, he’ll now have the benefit of having had a race.
I don’t think he can win the Memsie, particularly with Sheza Alibi returning from her world-class Doncaster Mile demolition, but he should still run well.
In my view, the race Andrea Leek and Bob Peters should have a big red circle around is the Underwood Stakes over 1800 metres. Delius may be there, which is a caveat, but he only ran to 98.6 to win the race last year, so in low-pressure lead-in races, he’s been known to be beatable. All being well and being there on Underwood Day, he would be of immense interest to beat Australia’s premier middle distance horse.
Dave’s notes: “Cosmic Crusader, the time was hard to rationalise vs Custom, but at the 600m, the Bletchingly was some 6.4L behind R1 (vs class par). I ended up being pretty forgiving to the Bletchingly in the ratings. Cosmic Crusader was the only horse at the meeting to come underneath the field, and he did it easily. The race was suffering late, which was a worry given they’d not gone hard, but Cosmic Crusader’s late splits were great, especially in that inner ground and 1st up.
I did wonder if the track cut out a bit. It looked awful, but the kickback wasn’t wet. The jockeys didn’t have mud on them to my eye, and the times were consistently in the Dead 4-5 range all day.”
Race 8: LD-S-8: +3.3L, LD-8-4: +1.4L, LD-4-F: -4.7L, WNR-4-F: -4.7L, @WFA: 89.9
Amleto is emblematic of Ciaron Maher’s operation’s success recently, with three winners at Caulfield.
The numbers underline it, too. 20% from the last 100 runners, with 1.19 wins over expectation on BSP, where 1.0 is neutral, and 11 winners from their last 50 runners, returning 1.4 wins over expectation. Their horses are holding form and running well.
Six runs this preparation, six top-three finishes, and a clear spike since the application of blinkers in June. Wet ground has aided him, and here he was suited again, on speed, albeit covering ground without cover.
It was a testing race, reflected in the closing sectionals, the winner finishing four lengths slower than standard over the final furlong. He outstayed them.
Despite winning, he was not asked to do anything he hadn’t done before, running to something like his modal rating. He can hold this level and remain competitive when better opposition returns, leveraging his fitness for what he lacks in ability.
Leonchroi’s run caught the eye, but it requires context. He wasn’t quickening so much as slowing less than the others, which is typically his forte. Benefiting from the pace and an economical passage, he matched his previous peak. With marked improvement from run to run and only second-up, he looks capable of reaching new heights in this preparation, especially over 2400 metres third or fourth-up and, ideally, with a weight advantage.
Aeolian was the plunge that went astray, firming from $13 into $4.90.
The market expected her to run to a figure of 91.5, accounting for her 50kg impost, and that expectation remains a fair projection at her next run.
Still early in her first Australian preparation, and with good figures in the UK, she may have been disadvantaged by the pace, having only a slowly run race over a mile at Sandown in preparation. Pe
Race 9: LD-S-8: +2.7L, LD-8-4: +0.9L, LD-4-F: +0.1L, WNR-4-F: +3.2L, @WFA: 92.4
Lauberhorn improved out of sight to give Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr the quinella in the final race of the day.
Ordinarily, when a horse wins with a starting price of $58.50 on the exchange, the form is seldom worth following. In this case, though, Lauberhorn appears to have taken a major advancement. Perhaps it was
1400 metres that prompted significant improvement, or perhaps he has simply improved with racing. He is now three wins from five starts and should be considered highly progressive, but there remains a caveat, and I’m not quite convinced, given both his starting price here and his last start. He will not be easy to assess at his next start.
Cruiserweight was heavily backed throughout betting and started $1.80 on the exchange. There were no obvious excuses, so some may want to blame the pace for the poor run, but that doesn’t hold up, given he performed so well in a race where the pace was frantic last start. One poor run does not make him slower; it only makes it increasingly unlikely that he is much, much better. I would not read too much into it. He is still as good as he was after winning a fortnight ago.
Celtics ran to his mark again, while Mahershala improved, as expected. Both can be followed into their four-year-old campaigns, with each only rated 69.
Ratings Blackbook
Custom recorded a new career best and appears to have improved with age. She belongs in Stakes company for mares. Nick and Trav Noonan pointed to the Cockram on Memsie Stakes Day in four weeks as her next logical target on their Sunday morning show, and I think that is where she will be next. She may need to improve again, but on this evidence, she is more than capable of doing so.
Glasgow Lass has prior form that suggests she is quite good, and this run hinted that she is not far from returning to her best. She will improve over 1400 metres and a mile, particularly with a senior jockey aboard.
Mystery ‘N’ Drama was better than the form card suggests.
Cosmic Crusaderwon with authority in inferior going over a trip short of his best. To project a rating in the 100–101 range in the P.B.Lawrence seems reasonable, and that would sit slightly above what it has typically taken to win the race in recent years.
Aeolianis a case of trusting the market. She should improve again for the run and can reach that level next start, ideally from a low weight once more.
