Turf Talk:
- Yarra Valley is a tight track with a short home straight.
- As a general rule it’s a big advantage to be on speed at Yarra Valley, but it has raced reasonable well this season.
- Keep an eye on the weather with a chance of showers throughout the afternoon – it’s a track that chops up quickly.
Key stats:
- Luke Currie goes at 24.1% here at Yarra Valley.
- Billy Egan is the leading jockey on recent form, going at 19% from his last 100 rides, a PoT of 38.2%.
- Lloyd Kenewell has continued his good form since splitting with Lucy Yeomans, striking at 23% from his last 100 at a PoT of 37.7%.
Head over to the Betsy Tipping Hub for move previews of today’s racing
Race 1
Good maiden to kick off the day.
(2) Done Leavy has trialled up very well for her return to the sports. Form gate three, Celine Gaudray should bounce her straight on speed (leading or sitting outside (1) Beau Strada) and from there she should prove awfully hard to run down. Showed good ability last campaign and has trialled much better this time around – easy to mound a case she has improved.
(8) Our Yonglee has trialled nicely ahead of her debut for Cliff Brown. Should box seat from gate two and wouldn’t surprise at all if she were to win.
(5) Irreverant is deep into her campaign and now drops back to 1200m after all runs have been at 1300 and 1400m. Good effort up on speed at Pakenham in a reasonable high-rating race last start. Scratchings have helped as barrier looked sticky. Can absolutely win but is short enough.
Suggested bet: Backing Done Leavy
Race 2
(10) I’m Foxing produced the best last 400m split of the meeting on debut at Pakenham. She jumped well there but they restrained from the wider draw; suspect she will be ridden more positively. She only has to hold her rating from that debut run to prove awfully hard to beat.
Think the main danger is the debutant, (12) Selkie. Has shown good gate speed. Has the in-form Lachie Neindorf in the saddle and jump-outs have suggested she has ability.
(2) Boyd has been gelded. Jump-outs have been ‘fair’ at best. Drawn well but happy to oppose as favourite.
Suggested bet: Backing I’m Foxing and Selkie.
Race 4
(7) Galactic Force brings clearly the best form and last start rating to this moderate maiden. Resumed at Sale over 1000m where he got home strongly to run third and he was chopped out late. Second horse has since pissed in and this bloke will only be better suited up to 1200m. If he has even luck off the inside draw, he should be winning this.
The toppy (1) Benriach has had plenty of chances but he was arguably unlucky not to win this track and trip last start. He was five-weeks between runs there and now backs up 9 days later. He just needs to jump cleanly, as that can be his kryptonite.
(10) Prince De Vega and (12) Tara’s Crown both have claims.
Suggested bet: Backing Galactic Force.
Race 6
(4) Got Out The Fence can cross from his draw and lead. He had been flying leading into Echuca last start where he simply went too hard (+4.4L to the 800m and +6.6 to the 400m) – he simply had to tire. Gets a senior jockey back on today and is well down in grade.
At double figures, (2) High Country Star has a great chance. Clearly had his issues having debuted as a 6yo after starting his career with Enver Jusufovic. He beat a subsequent winner two back at Albury and may have dome to the end of it at the same track last start. Resumes here and whilst the form guide will show he finished seventh in his recent Corowa trial, the effort was far better than it would seem. Maps for a gun run.
(6) Here Comes Wazza was well rated to win last start – has come back well. (9) Anchor Down will likely spot them a start but has jumped-out quite well for the new stable and best is good enough to win this.
Suggested bet: Like the race. Two-bet play (2) High Country Star/(4) Got Out The Fence the best of the day.
