3YO Power Rankings: The young guns set to light up the spring

The new racing season is underway and attention is quickly turning towards the Spring Carnival, with a talented crop of three-year-olds preparing to chase some of Australian racing’s biggest prizes.

Betsy form analysts Matt Welsh and Dean Watling have cast their eyes over the emerging three-year-old ranks, with Welsh assessing the Victorian-trained brigade and Watling putting Sydney’s best young prospects under the microscope.

From established Group performers to lightly raced horses ready to take the next step, the pair have delivered their 3YO Power Rankings heading into the spring.

These are the young horses they believe could be chasing plenty of spring riches over the next few months.

Top 5 Sydney-trained 3YOs

It was an average 2YO season up here in Sydney. A lot of the key horses had setbacks, missed major races or simply looked like it all came too soon for them during the autumn carnival. What has me excited, though, is the depth of the late-season 3YOs, along with the impressive trials from those who missed the autumn altogether. More often than not, that’s the recipe for a strong spring, with these progressive types taking the next step. It’s shaping as an extremely exciting campaign.

1. Central Europe

Out of sight and out of mind for a lot of punters, but leading into the spring Central Europe is my number one Sydney-trained 3YO. Why? We often see horses missing some of the top-line 2YO races due to immaturity, and that can be a blessing in disguise for their spring 3YO campaign. He reminds me a lot of Yes Yes Yes, who also missed the Golden Slipper. He has looked physically much stronger at the trials and I think he’ll stamp himself as one of the best this spring.

2. Chilly Girl

A very similar story, but this time with a filly. Chilly Girl was a dominant debut winner in the Group 3 Widden Stakes, which is a huge statement to win a race of that quality at her first start. She then suffered a setback and was ruled out of the autumn. I’ve loved her two trials back this prep. She’s a lovely, free-striding filly who puts herself on speed and makes her own luck. I dare say we’ll see the best of her this spring.

3. St Gotthard

A late-season 2YO who burst onto the scene with a professional debut win before putting an absolute gap on his rivals in the Group 3 Ken Russell. He looks a lovely mile type and appears set for a Golden Rose campaign.

4. Blue Door

Not many horses win the Kindergarten Stakes on debut, but this filly did. She also defeated The Next Door that day, which already reads very well. She has as much upside as any horse on this list and looked very forward in her first trial back at Randwick.

5. Incognito

The Breeders’ Plate winner had six runs during the autumn, with his best performance coming in that Breeders’ Plate victory. He’s now into his third preparation and couldn’t have looked better in two eye-catching trials. He’s a 1000m to 1200m run-on type who looks to have his wicked turn of foot back.

Honourable Mentions

Satin Serenade, Steel Will and Castillo King all come through the late winter form, but each has put up big figures. All three have the potential to progress into the top echelon of the 3YO ranks this spring.

Top 5 Victorian-trained 3YOs

Overall, I didn’t think it was a particularly strong crop of 2YOs and, before anyone comes at me, that’s merely my opinion. As a result, I think there’s plenty of opportunity for horses to come from left field and emerge as genuine contenders for the major 3YO features this spring.

Here are my top five Victorian-trained new-season 3YOs heading into the Spring Carnival. I’ve focused mainly on the sprinting and miler types, as the picture is much clearer with that cohort and that’s where the early spring features are centred.

1. Guest House

Guest House always looked the standout 2YO of his generation, at least down south. He impressed at the trials prior to his debut and quickly made his presence felt with an arrogant debut win at Cranbourne. I thought he should have won the Blue Diamond when held up behind the speed before charging late. He quickly atoned in the Golden Slipper and proved himself the best 2YO of the autumn.

He was still doing plenty wrong last campaign, suggesting there’s good upside to come, which can’t be said for some of those he beat.

2. Riverina Lulu

As mentioned, there’s plenty of scope for a horse to come from left field and quickly rise to the top. Riverina Lulu was trialled like a very good horse prior to her straight-track debut at Flemington and she backed it up with a most impressive victory. The form out of that race has already proven quite strong and she will only improve from the outing.

She has since had a jump-out between runs and I imagine she’ll head to the Quezette next week, where she’ll meet a couple of other fillies on this list. Grahame Begg has a knack for finding good horses and he’s certainly got another one here.

3. Angels Fury

From the moment this filly stepped onto the trial track it was hard not to be impressed. She is probably the best trial horse of her generation, which isn’t always a tag connections want.

Alarm bells rang when she failed as a heavily backed favourite in the Blue Diamond Preview. However, she has quickly proven that run an aberration with two brilliant wins this winter. Firstly at Bendigo, where she ran slick time under her own steam, and most recently at Caulfield, where she faced the breeze on a day it was difficult to do so.

I suspect she’s going to live up to the early hype.

4. Natural Fling

Sheesh, this filly couldn’t have trialled much better down the straight at Flemington on Monday. She ran easily the quickest of the straight-track heats, doing so completely under her own steam, with Closer To Free back in second.

She was a very good debut winner before heading to the Gold Coast, where she was far from disgraced behind The Next Episode, who may well be one of the better 2YOs in Australia.

5. Mbube

This colt was heavily backed the moment markets opened ahead of his debut at Sandown, and didn’t he justify the support. He ripped home the best last 600m, 400m and 200m splits of the day to sweep past Star Of Dom and win comfortably.

Star Of Dom has since gone on to win the Creswick Series Final, defeating another subsequent winner in One Day At A Time.

Mbube had shown great talent in his trials prior to that debut and, while it’s a long way from a 1000m 2YO race at Sandown in the middle of winter to the major spring features, I suspect this bloke will measure up.

Honourable Mentions 

Hard Kick

Haven’t given up on this bloke, just yet. His debut was blistering. Too bad to be true first-up at Flemington. Has jumped-out well since. Think he can bounce back and measure up to some of the better 3yo races.

Sharaz

This bloke was ultra-impressive on debut at Bendigo, beating a handy field and defying a heavy on-pace bias in the process. That debut came over 1100m, which I think will prove to be the bottom of his distance range. He looks a horse that will only improve as he gets out over further.