Summary of Best Bets:
Race 3 #4 Certify – Loved the debut run, fitter and big track suits.
Race 5 #7 Diamond Epic – Dominant winner last start and this is no harder.
Turf Talk:
- Rail out 6m
- Typical Qld weather, warm and chance of a storm each day.
- Rail 6m is fair but if rain comes they may get off the fence as the day goes on.
Stats that matter:
- Matt Dunn stable has trained 16 winners from last 50 runners at 32%. 14 placings to go along with the winner.
- J.Williams the apprentice has ridden 9 winners from last 50 and a ROI of +12.6%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Small field but, gee, this is an interesting race.
(4) Yoyo Yeezy is well bred, has a good record and a heap of upside. Comes here off a BM70 win in town and placed well. He beat Scripted last start and that horse is flying. Will be on speed and hard to get past again.
(5) Spiethtacular joined Gollan this prep and is airborne. Is she just a polytrack horse though? Questions on that is fair.
(1) Astapor has class but has been off the scene for 9 months. Still must respect here, especially if money comes on race day.
Selections:
(4) Yoyo Yeezy
(1) Astapor
(5) Spiethtacular
Suggested Bet: No bet after scratchings.
Race 2:
Nothing would surprise here.
Liked the run of (6) Zeamaize at first start for the new stable last time out. 2nd best L400m of that race and just needs a good ride from the gate.
(2) Mr Stormy comes out of the same race and still has some learning to do. 2nd best L200m there and could be a big improver to a big track and 1200m. The $41/$8 has been gobbled up now.
A few of these on debut have trialled really well.
(10) Monakeed is in a good stable, Thompson rides and was a winner of her only trial. Led there and did it easily in the end. Has a future.
(13) Magic Snitzel is well bred, has looked good in trials and draws a nice gate.
A lot of queries here and might be a better race to watch and learn.
Selections:
(2) Mr Stormy
(6) Zeamaize
(10) Monakeed
(13) Magic Snitzel
Suggested Bet: Place bet (2) Mr Stormy around the $8 (not as keen at $4 now)
Race 3:
(1) Artistic Endeavour has been very good the last couple of runs. Held up and looked unlucky last start. In saying that, got out in time and no match for winner. Only has to hold that form to be a live chance but is a non-winner.
Loved what (4) Certify did on debut at the coast. Settle in the second half of the field, patient ride and he went through his gears in the straight. Best part was through the line and sets up well here off that experience. Wide gate not ideal but can win.
(6) Kohler Kid will win races but not helped by the wide draw. Showed a turn of foot fresh but just too much to do. One for exotics.
(9) Speed King is well bred and joins a stable who can do nothing wrong. Trial was OK and if the money comes, they can be deadly, this yard.
(11) Katie Aine might be the next best and better for the debut run.
Selections:
(4) Certify
(1) Artistic Endeavour
(9) Speed King
(6) Kohler King
Suggested Bet: Win bet (4) Certify
Race 4:
(2) Hot Majesty had OK form in Victoria although a plain strike rate. Joined Gollan and had no luck first up. Showed a good turn of foot when clear and should have finished much closer. Looks extremely well placed but feel the market may overreact to that run.
(1) Dark Arts is better placed up here but I have to admit he looked the winner and had every chance last start. Maps well and gets chance again.
(5) War King draws wide but may roll forward in a race devoid of speed. Was a dominant winner at the coast last start, lightly raced and in the best stable in the land. Clearly the hardest to beat.
(4) Slipsain has another couple of wins in store and is a consistent type. 2nd in a BM62 last time out and he is another I would think can roll forward.
(7) Lyneham was going well and then simply outclassed in a Group 3. Drops back to a CL1 and this is the ideal race for him. Munce stable have cooled off a bit, but this bloke should be in the finish.
Selections:
(2) Hot Majesty
(7) Lyneham
(5) War King
(4) Slipsain
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Hot Majesty and saver (7) Lyneham
Race 5:
(7) Diamond Epic is in career best form and this is no harder than the last start win. Loved her out to the 1600m there and the big tracks always suit. Looks the one they all have to beat again here.
(11) Vos Savant is in a stable that just keeps winning. Has been good this prep and then easy win last start to boost the confidence. Was well placed there and is now ready for the mile. Best L200m last start so the trip should be fine.
(12) Sanctuary Storm is very consistent but I just feel lacks the class of a couple of these. Maps well and I do like the 1800m run back to 1600m for him.
(13) Special Artist is one I have always felt would reach a good level but he mixes form and I’ve given up trying to guess what he is going to produce.
Selections:
(7) Diamond Epic
(11) Vos Savant
(12) Sanctuary Storm
(13) Special Artist
Suggested Bet: Win bet (7) Diamond Epic
Race 6:
Competitive race but (1) Wanda Rox is always up to something like this. Has won 11 of 23 and has a great record at the track (8:4:2:0). Not bad fresh, drops back in grade and draws a decent gate. Should be hard to hold out.
(2) Chakra Boy has good ability and was just a little soft late fresh. Easier than last start and could be an improver. Fitter for that fresh run and has been good around this grade in the past.
Just feel this drops away quickly and don’t want to get too involved with the others. Happy to watch on at the prices.
Selections:
(1) Wanda Rox
(2) Chakra Boy
(7) Krakarib
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
One of the hardest races of the day to assess.
(6) Flying Aurelius is lightly raced and has good ability. Was heavily supported fresh but stopped late. Hard to know what to do off that run but could improve 5L and not surprise. The stable can’t do anything wrong and I feel they will be positive again early.
(10) She Ours and (9) Heesen went over the line together recently and nothing between them. She Ours draws to get the perfect run while Heesen will need luck early. I do like Franklin on Heesen and it can run well.
I’d be surprised if they don’t fight it out. Market will be a great indicator for this race, especially with the fave Flying Aurelius.
Selections:
(6) Flying Aurelius
(9) Heesen
(10) She Ours
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8:
We need more of these CL1 races with good horses on their way up. This is one of the better races of the day and it will produce a heap of winners going forward.
(4) Meldubious is way better than CL1 grade. Dominant win at 2nd career start, then might have come to end of prep. Trial this time in was great. Showed a slick turn of foot and might be a better horse this time in work.
(7) Whispering Rogue comes out of a handy race and will be better for that run. Should land midfield and not spend a penny early which will help.
Selections:
(4) Meldubious
(7) Whispering Rogue
(2) Simply Fun
Suggested Bets: Win (4) Meldubious if $2.40+
