The Makybe Diva
Where else to begin but with the fact that Mr Brightside will attempt to win the Makybe Diva Stakes for the fourth consecutive year this Saturday. Perhaps this is the hardest of the four to win, a task not aided by the fact that he is nine, but who is to doubt him? He was unwanted in betting first-up and staved off a field of quality seven-furlong horses in the Memsie to run second. A champion in every sense of the word, he has an obvious chance to win on Saturday.
There is, however, a certain mare standing in his way: Sheza Alibi, who is well into red odds to win on Saturday, and rightly so. She was terrific in the Winx Stakes behind fellow super-mare Autumn Glow. She lost no admirers and confirmed that she has lost nothing since winning the Doncaster Handicap by four lengths and change. Her early price is mostly unappealing for punters such as myself, with a top price of
$1.65 at the time of writing, but I must say that I have in fact marked her shorter than that price and make her a $1.54 chance in Saturday’s race.
Much of that price is because of Delius’ chances, or lack thereof. He was able to win the Queen Elizabeth so comprehensively because of the pace in that race. It was an unrelenting test of endurance, which is his strength. He is a mile-and-a-half horse and overpowered Autumn Glow, who moved into the race with speed, before Delius became too strong over the concluding 400 metres.
If the pace is even or slow, which is more than likely, I do not think he can win at all. He was outpaced over a mile and a quarter in the Ranvet by Aeliana, and many will suggest that may be because that was not his ultimate target, which is partly true, but I would contend that his marked improvement between the Ranvet and Queen Elizabeth was a function of pace. Returning over a mile, he quite simply does not have the speed to contend with horses that are true milers, especially Sheza Alibi, who is a better horse in general.
A fascinating race, and one that will shape the spring. I have an inclination that Sheza Alibi may quickly turn it into a procession.
Race 10
There are plenty of wagers to be had across the ten races at Flemington, but none more so than Storm Leopard in the meeting’s culminating race. There is not an abundance of pace, which spells some concern because it is likely that Storm Leopard will be ridden to the rear of the field, but even so, the current top odds of $3.60 are highly appealing for a runner of his talent in a field of mostly stagnant horses.
A Tulloch winner at three and second favourite in the ATC Derby, he profiles very well to win a race of this quality, especially considering he has an impost of just 54kg. He resumed in brilliant order behind Fancify, who led at a slow speed, and he ran into fifth with strong sectional times. He resumed in an order that would insinuate that Group-grade 2000-metre races are well within his measure, and perhaps even the Caulfield Cup. He hails from the family of Helmet, Pericles, Epaulette, Bullbars and Pearls, so, unsurprisingly, he is talented, and perhaps we have not seen the best of him. I do not think we have. I make him a $2.70 chance.
Cap D’Antibes
The Cap D’Antibes heralds the return of champion two-year-old filly Streisand, who is not the favourite, as has been the trend of the market giving the established two-year-old form the cold shoulder.
The favourite is Over Excited, who was 0.6 seconds quicker than any other runner over the last 400 metres across the program at Geelong.
She is the daughter of I Am Excited, who was a Group 1 winner herself, and of course Over Excited has some way to go before she can lay claim to be as good, but her debut gave the indication that she has the ability to at the very least contend in Group 1 races this spring and beyond.
As stated, the market has thought very little of the Blue Diamond, Slipper, Sires and Champagne form thus far, suggesting that there may not be much separating the best of the established and progressive maiden winners.
Over Excited is an appealing option for punters who do not fancy the Blue Diamond form, such as myself. I have marked her $3.50.
Suggested bets:
Race 3 – Over Excited
Race 10 – Storm Leopard
