Turf Talk:
- Yarra Valley is a tight track with a short home straight.
- Rail back to the true after being out 3m in all four meetings this spring/summer season. It will be really interesting to see how it plays – the inside section could be dynamite, or there may be an underlying reason they’ve been protecting it so far this season. One to watch closely.
- As a general rule it’s a big advantage to be on speed at Yarra Valley.
Key Stats:
- John McArdle has his stable flying, going at 23% from his last 100 runners.
- Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young strike at 25% when they bring horses here to Yarra Valley.
- Ben Allen has an impressive 27.5% strike rate here at Yarra Valley from a decent sample size. A jockey worth bonusing today.
Race 2
This is arguably one of the worst professional maidens I can recall in Victoria in recent times, but that doesn’t automatically mean it’s a poor betting race.
There isn’t much speed which presents (1) Galagacisco a chance to come across from the wide draw and look to lead with a reasonable run into the sweeping home bend. He was good over 1150m at Nhill last time out when tiring the last 100m. Dropping back to 1000m should only aid his chances, especially in a race there doesn’t look to be manic pressure. He hasn’t cornered brilliantly in either run this campaign and wants to have a good look around, so like the winkers going on today. His form ties in with the favourite (3) Igotmymindonyou and I think they should be closer in the market.
(3) Igotmymindonyou is racing well enough and like the toppy isn’t hindered dropping back from 1100m to 1000m. He can be slow out, which is some concern, but should be able to use the inside draw to drive up and settle handy enough.
(10) Miss Lil’s form also ties in with those two key chances above, the knock been she has tended to get a fair way back in her races.
Suggested bet: Like Galagacisco – the $4 appeals, expect him to start shorter.
Race 5
Good tempo here with (10) Adki to run them along.
(11) Every Little Thing is going better than the form guide suggests. Was unlucky not to win first up at Mornington, the second horse Golden Age having gone on to win subsequently. She was then forced back to the inferior ground and raced in restricted room at Kyneton last start – a total forgive. Five-weeks between runs but has had a nice tickover jump-out to keep her up to the mark. Up 300m in trip but think she’s looking for it.
Suggested bet: Backing Every Little Thing 1×3 E/W at $10.
Race 6
(4) Tookay Pete was ridden aggressively last start and it brought about a much improved performance. He got involved in a speed battle at this track over 1200m – going out +5.5L above standard early – and he beat off the co-leader before being nabbed by Superset, who had a soft run on his back. If they are going to ride him in a similar, aggressive fashion the drop back in trip should only serve him well. He looks to lead this comfortably and provided Emily Pozman runs them along at a reasonable clip they’ll struggle to catch him.
(5) Dry Fire can be slow to begin but the blinkers went on last time out and he certainly didn’t go backwards. Good jockey up should help him overcome the wide draw.
Suggested bet: Tookay Pete can control this. Surprised we are getting $5. Think he starts shorter.
